Ukraine's European Revolution?

[Legbiter]

The only wildcard here is if the Ukrainians themselves kick the Russians in the nuts militarily.

[PJL]

So. Will Putin be content to consolidate the situation in Crimea? Or will he go after Eastern Ukraine, too? Or even further than that?

As I mentioned, anything than whole (with a puppet government) or most of Ukraine would be a failure for him. No Eurasian Union without the Ukraine and whatever he leaves of the country will end up with NATO, so militarily he will end being in a worse situation unless he goes all the way.

I think you may be right in your analysis. Certainly the rhetoric coming from Russia is about regime change. So basically installing a puppet government in the Ukraine as you said.

[alfred russel]

I don't think we should be sending troops to the Ukraine.

A CVBG to the Black Sea would be ok though.

I know next to nothing about how military stuff works, but is that a good idea? A CVBG against goofballs like Iraq and Iran is one thing, but isn't a CVBG off the coast of Russia as much of a target as a menace?

[celedhring]

I don't think we should be sending troops to the Ukraine.

A CVBG to the Black Sea would be ok though.

I'm not up to speed, but IIRC traversing the Bosphorus straits with military ships is an international law minefield.

[celedhring]

I don't think we should be sending troops to the Ukraine.

A CVBG to the Black Sea would be ok though.

I know next to nothing about how military stuff works, but is that a good idea? A CVBG against goofballs like Iraq and Iran is one thing, but isn't a CVBG off the coast of Russia as much of a target as a menace?

I'd guess the moment an US carrier is sunk by Russians it's time to head to the underground bunkers.

[DGuller]

The only wildcard here is if the Ukrainians themselves kick the Russians in the nuts militarily.

I don't see how that's likely.  The Russian military may or may not be a hollow shell of its former self, but it's not like Ukraine is immune from the same forces.

[Tonitrus]

In Russian news....

- Air base in Crimea with 45 Mig-29s defect to defend their autonomous homeland! (only 4 of them are serviceable' by the way).

[Sheilbh]

For the Russophones:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-gVYupMRBs

Video has been posted online of the extraordinary meeting at which Rear Admiral Denis Berezovsky, who defected to the Russian-supported Crimean authorities, one day after being appointed Ukrainian navy commander-in-chief, tried unsuccessfully to persuade other officers to follow in his footsteps. At the meeting he was denounced as a traitor by his replacement as navy chief commander, Serhiy Haiduk.

[Legbiter]

The only wildcard here is if the Ukrainians themselves kick the Russians in the nuts militarily.

I don't see how that's likely.  The Russian military may or may not be a hollow shell of its former self, but it's not like Ukraine is immune from the same forces.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzLtF_PxbYw

Ukraine's not weak. 

[alfred russel]

At the meeting he was denounced as a traitor by his replacement as navy chief commander, Serhiy Haiduk.

No kidding.

[alfred russel]

I'd guess the moment an US carrier is sunk by Russians it's time to head to the underground bunkers.

I agree. However, I really doubt that the Russians are going to allow a US carrier to freely attack Russian targets off its coast.

[Viking]

I don't think we should be sending troops to the Ukraine.

A CVBG to the Black Sea would be ok though.

Deathtrap. The CVBG can operate out of the med. But, don't forget, CVBG Poland. It has airfields, a historical positive relationship with Ukraine, and alliance with the US and a grudge against Russia.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I'd guess the moment an US carrier is sunk by Russians it's time to head to the underground bunkers.

I agree. However, I really doubt that the Russians are going to allow a US carrier to freely attack Russian targets off its coast.

Mike Rogers was correct on this, sending a CVBG makes no sense, and it doesn't. It's kind of irrelevant as to whether the Black Sea is a death trap or not though, if Russian and U.S. forces actually started to exchange fire we'd be talking about the most serious international incident since WW2. It's not like we'd actually attack Russian forces for that reason, or vice versa. So it's just a pointless saber rattling.

[Valmy]

Ukraine's acting President Turchinov meets with William Hague in Kiev this morning (Reuters)

They should wear matching suits and ties!

What is up with Brits looking just like East European leaders?

[Sheilbh]

Starting to think we should be setting up NATO bases in the new members - like Poland and the Baltics.