Ukraine's European Revolution?

[Syt]

It may be time to re-install TOAW3.

[KRonn]

And most folks know I'm no fan of Kerry, but these articles make him sound like an idiot.

"Act like a G8 nation?"  "Go to the hilt to isolate Russia?"

Oooooh, that stings, doesn't it Vladimir?

Yeah, Kerry talks a good game but a lot of it's toothless. Not many good options for the US anyway, especially since Putin has outmanuvered the US for some years now, and continues to do so. Pres Bush thought Putin was someone he understood and who could be worked with, and Pres Obama seems to think the same way, that Putin is working with mostly similar views as the US/West. Cold War is over, not the 80s anymore. Has anyone told Putin that? Because he works off of his own plate. Invaded Georgia during Bush's Presidency and now I think it's almost certain that parts of Ukraine will be annexed.  Putin won concessions in Syria, is working with Iran which is undermining Iraq, and Russia may be getting back into better favor with Egypt.

[Tamas]

What would be nice (although I guess quite hard due to business interests) is to strangle Putin's regime economically. It worked with the Soviets.

[grumbler]

eh.. Stephen Walt /= Glenn Greenwald

eh.. Glenn Greenwald /= Stephen Walt

[Syt]

So. Will Putin be content to consolidate the situation in Crimea? Or will he go after Eastern Ukraine, too? Or even further than that?

[Tamas]

So. Will Putin be content to consolidate the situation in Crimea? Or will he go after Eastern Ukraine, too? Or even further than that?

As I mentioned, anything than whole (with a puppet government) or most of Ukraine would be a failure for him. No Eurasian Union without the Ukraine and whatever he leaves of the country will end up with NATO, so militarily he will end being in a worse situation unless he goes all the way.

[Razgovory]

I still think that bold action is the only thing that will prevent the loss of Ukraine to the Russians.  We need to a rapid deployment of US soldiers to Ukraine.  Vlad won't plow through a US military force to get what he wants.

[Tamas]

I still think that bold action is the only thing that will prevent the loss of Ukraine to the Russians.  We need to a rapid deployment of US soldiers to Ukraine.  Vlad won't plow through a US military force to get what he wants.

Maybe. But eg. the armed thugs supporting the Russian troops? The civilians waving Russian flags as far west as Odessa? What will happen if a US soldier has to shoot one of them? Will Putin destroy his image as godly protector of Russians and as such lose his power, or order his troops to attack, thereby risking nuclear holocaust, but assuring he stays in power?

[Solmyr]

[Syt]

[Legbiter]

So. Will Putin be content to consolidate the situation in Crimea? Or will he go after Eastern Ukraine, too? Or even further than that?

I'd guess Putin nabs and pauses to digest Crimea, get his BB rating down a bit. In the meantime the Russians sport with successive Kiev governments as Ukraine descends into abject penury until they get a helpful stooge.

[OttoVonBismarck]

To be honest, China have all the motives in the world to support Russia in this, it's not like they don't have their own territorial ambitions in their own backyard. Tit for tat.

I'm not really sure they do, China has every interest to not care. If the West actually moved for any kind of targeting sanctions (like an expanded version of the Magnitsky Act), China obviously would not participate. China basically doesn't care about this. China is interested in Taiwan, the South China Sea and etc but China is fundamentally very different from Russia. Russia is basically Putin right now in terms of its foreign policy, manic, paranoid, and desperate to achieve certain goals. I have no idea how long Putin will be President of Russia but I doubt it is until he dies, and I think he probably views himself as Russia's last, best hope to restore any of its Soviet era glory. I don't think he is deluded enough to think he could annex all the former SSRs or anything but with actions like he's taken in Georgia and Crimea I do think he believes with a combination of stick and carrot he can build up his customs union as the next  best thing to the USSR.

China on the other hand I believe has a much more deliberative view toward issues like Taiwan. China views Taiwan's integration with the PRC as an inevitability, and to be honest as the PRC has continued (an albeit rocky) path toward modernization and reform and has proven that it does generally let Hong Kong and Macau run their special administrative regions pretty freely I wouldn't be shocked if in the coming decades Taiwan and China do unify. China will act aggressively if there was a sign that Taiwan is going "the other way", meaning they made overt claims of formal independence or voted in certain ways that would anger the PRC. But as long as that doesn't happen I think China is perfectly content to play the long game, China's leaders as far as I can see view themselves as building a house so to speak over time. They do not feel that the only time for success is in the present, so they are much more deliberative and willing to play the long game. Putin can't play the long game because he views himself as an Alexander the Great sort of once-in-a-century leader who will not be followed by someone capable of filling his shoes.

[Legbiter]

I still think that bold action is the only thing that will prevent the loss of Ukraine to the Russians.  We need to a rapid deployment of US soldiers to Ukraine.  Vlad won't plow through a US military force to get what he wants.

I think Putin has Obama pegged as a pussy, who'll at most send a strongly worded letter about Russia respecting the rights of the Crimean LBGTYZQP & pansexual community and call it a day, so to speak.

Putin's accomplished what he set out to do.

[alfred russel]

And most folks know I'm no fan of Kerry, but these articles make him sound like an idiot.

"Act like a G8 nation?"  "Go to the hilt to isolate Russia?"

Oooooh, that stings, doesn't it Vladimir?

Being the nerd that I am, Kerry using "go to the hilt" really bothers me. I think the origins of the phrase have to do with stabbing with a sword all the way to the hilt - ie, to the maximum extent with physical violence. Obviously we aren't going to go to war over this, and I am sure Russia has gotten that message, but isn't diplomatic language supposed to be well thought out and precise?

[Berkut]

I don't think we should be sending troops to the Ukraine.

A CVBG to the Black Sea would be ok though.