Ukraine's European Revolution?

[Syt]

Well, as if there was any doubt:

http://news.sky.com/story/1219922/ukraine-russia-and-china-in-agreement

Ukraine: Russia And China 'In Agreement'

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says his views coincided with those of his China counterpart during talks over Ukraine.

Russia has said China is largely "in agreement" over the situation in Ukraine after the other G8 nations condemned its intrusion into the country.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov discussed Ukraine by telephone with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi on Monday, and claimed they had "broadly coinciding points of view" on the situation there, according to a ministry statement.

As a tense stand-off continues between Russian and Ukrainian forces on the borders of Crimea, the other seven nations of the G8 urged Moscow to hold talks with Kiev. "We, the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States and the President of the European Council and President of the European Commission, join together today to condemn the Russian Federation's clear violation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine," they said in a statement.

"We have decided for the time being to suspend our participation in activities associated with the preparation of the scheduled G8 Summit in Sochi in June."

Moscow's Stock Exchange dropped around 10% in the first hour of trading, and Russia's central bank responded by hiking its main interest rate in an emergency move to limit economic damage.

The Bank Rossii raised its rate to 7% from 5.5% as the ruble hit an historic low against the dollar and the euro.

On Monday, it was trading at 51.20 rubles to the euro, with one dollar also worth around 37 rubles - the lowest ever value for the Russian currency beating even the financial crisis of 2008/9.

Hundreds of suspected Russian troops have surrounded a Ukraine military base near Crimea's capital Simferopol, preventing soldiers from going in or out.

The convoy blockading the site includes at least 17 military vehicles, which have Russian number plates.

Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk indicated his country was mobilising for war following the move, saying in English: "This is not a threat: this is actually the declaration of war to my country."

Mr Yatseniuk heads a pro-Western government that took power in the former Soviet republic when its Moscow-backed president, Viktor Yanukovych, was ousted last week.

Prime Minister David Cameron and US President Barack Obama spoke on Sunday evening and agreed Russia's actions were "completely unacceptable" - and that it would face "significant costs" if it did not change course on Ukraine.

The US announced Secretary of State John Kerry would visit Kiev on Tuesday to show "strong support for Ukrainian sovereignty".

Meanwhile, Ukraine launched a treason case against its new navy chief after he switched allegiance to the pro-Russian Crimea region.

Rear Admiral Denis Berezovsky was appointed head of Ukraine's navy on Saturday and the Kiev government was still claiming its Black Sea fleet remained loyal on Sunday afternoon.

Appearing before cameras in Sevastopol alongside Sergiy Aksyonov, the pro-Russian prime minister of Crimea's regional parliament, he said he had ordered Ukrainian naval forces there to disregard orders from "self-proclaimed" authorities in Kiev.

Despite the strong language employed by the US, a series of public statements and private conversations with reporters made it abundantly clear that Washington wanted to get Russian President Vladimir Putin to pull back without any armed confrontation.

"Right now, I think we are focused on political, diplomatic and economic options," a senior US official told reporters.

"Frankly our goal is to uphold the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, not to have a military escalation." Mr Kerry had previously accused Russia of an "incredible act of aggression", saying: "You just don't in the 21st century behave in 19th century fashion by invading another country on a completely trumped-up pretext."

He spoke of "very serious repercussions" for Moscow and said G8 nations and some other countries are "prepared to go to the hilt to isolate Russia" with an array of options available.

He listed visa bans, asset freezes, trade isolation, and investment changes as possible steps, although analysts said US economic sanctions would have little impact unless EU countries - with which Russia has deeper trade ties - followed suit.

British Foreign Secretary William Hague was in Kiev on Monday ahead of a news conference in the Ukraine capital. Mr Hague announced the UK had withdrawn from preparatory talks ahead of the G8 summit on Sunday.

It came after Mr Putin secured permission from his parliament on Saturday to use military force to protect Russian citizens in Ukraine and told Mr Obama he had the right to defend Russian interests and nationals, spurning Western pleas not to intervene.

[Admiral Yi]

China is capable of speaking for themselves.

I sincerely doubt they told Russia good on ya mate.  I expect they said something like we got nothing to do with this mess.

[Admiral Yi]

And most folks know I'm no fan of Kerry, but these articles make him sound like an idiot.

"Act like a G8 nation?"  "Go to the hilt to isolate Russia?"

Oooooh, that stings, doesn't it Vladimir?

[Syt]

Yeah, probably. "We consider this a matter of Russian interests that doesn't involve us."

"See, they said it's our interests!"

[celedhring]

To be honest, China have all the motives in the world to support Russia in this, it's not like they don't have their own territorial ambitions in their own backyard. Tit for tat.

[Viking]

You can be surprised then, I don't like Walt. I just don't think there's much to criticise him on about this - unlike Greenwald.

I think the point he's making is valid. The US and EU backed the revolution but didn't think how they'd respond to a Russian intervention. At least I hope they hadn't thought that far ahead because that means they've just been surprised and taken a while to cobble together a policy. The grim alternative is they did think about the possibility of a Russian intervention and this is the masterplan unfolding.

I think the point he is making is tinfoil-hat stuff.  The very idea that the EU could engage in collusion is absurd. 

As far as the issue of whether the US and EU considered the consequences of their collusion (even if they could somehow engage in collusion), it seems to me that Putin has done pretty much exactly what such conspirators would want; he has danced the Flamenco on his crank, and gotten...what... for it?  the Crimea?  Yeah, that's worth getting kicked out of the G-8 and crashing your stock market over! 

The grim  alternative is that Stephen Walt doesn't give a fuck about truth and just spews whatever line he thinks will get him some hits.  Even that's not so grim when you consider that he is a British news media type, and so everyone expects him to lie.

eh.. Stephen Walt /= Glenn Greenwald

[Tamas]

Via a good friend of mine, I have heard that his Hungarian soldier friend's unit has started conducting firearms training and stuff and expect to be deployed next to the Ukrainian border next week.

It is telling how Cameron consulted with the Polish and Lithuanian PMs, but not Hungary's, I guess Orban being in Putin's pocket now is evident for everyone. I wonder what the troops are for, hopefully they are just a precautionary measure.

[Syt]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/03/world/europe/pressure-rising-as-obama-works-to-rein-in-russia.html?referrer=

Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany told Mr. Obama by telephone on Sunday that after speaking with Mr. Putin she was not sure he was in touch with reality, people briefed on the call said. "In another world," she said.

Is he stealing Nixon's madman schtick?

[celedhring]

Via a good friend of mine, I have heard that his Hungarian soldier friend's unit has started conducting firearms training and stuff and expect to be deployed next to the Ukrainian border next week.

It is telling how Cameron consulted with the Polish and Lithuanian PMs, but not Hungary's, I guess Orban being in Putin's pocket now is evident for everyone. I wonder what the troops are for, hopefully they are just a precautionary measure.

It's perfectly normal to man your borders when there's trouble in a neighboring country. I wouldn't get paranoid, you aren't going to partition Ukraine with Russia anytime soon.

[Tamas]

Via a good friend of mine, I have heard that his Hungarian soldier friend's unit has started conducting firearms training and stuff and expect to be deployed next to the Ukrainian border next week.

It is telling how Cameron consulted with the Polish and Lithuanian PMs, but not Hungary's, I guess Orban being in Putin's pocket now is evident for everyone. I wonder what the troops are for, hopefully they are just a precautionary measure.

It's perfectly normal to man your borders when there's trouble in a neighboring country. I wouldn't get paranoid, you aren't going to partition Ukraine with Russia anytime soon.

Well yeah, but let's not forget there are some  Hungarian-inhabited territories in Ukraine next to the border, and our elections are coming in April.

[Syt]

Ukraine's acting President Turchinov meets with William Hague in Kiev this morning (Reuters)

They should wear matching suits and ties!

[Syt]

You know what we haven't had in a while? Saber-rattling!

http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/721751

Baltic Fleet holds exercises in framework of surprise inspection

More than 450 units of military hardware are taking part in the large-scale exercise

KALIINIGRAD, March 03. /ITAR-TASS/. More than 3,500 servicemen of the Russian Baltic Fleet are taking part in the tactical exercise of coast guard troops on a test-site in the Kaliningrad region on Russia's Baltic coast in the framework of a surprise inspection of combat readiness of troops and ammunition of the Western and Central Military District.

More than 450 units of military hardware, including personnel armored carriers BMP-2, tanks T-72, self-propelled artillery installations and communication facilities, are taking part in the large-scale exercise, Chief of the public relations department of the press service of the Western Military District Captain 2nd rank Vladimir Matveyev told Itar-Tass on Monday.

The coast guard troops which had marched many kilometers from places where they are permanently stationed have practiced defense and offensive operations to improve their skills in handling conventional armaments and hardware, maneuvering on a battle field and in the construction of fortifications. During the tactic exercise the troops have complied with the assigned norms in shooting, tactical , engineering and special training under conditions which maximally resembled a battle field, Matveyev said.

The specifics of the exercise was that servicemen of motor-rifle regiments had practiced defense and offensive operations under conditions of radio and electronic blockade, enforced by a presumed adversary, artillery fire and air strikes, Matveyev added.

In the final leg of the exercise, the servicemen will practice combat shooting from all kinds of firearms and grenade launchers at targets which imitate caterpillar and cross-country vehicles and live manpower.

[Zanza]

To be honest, China have all the motives in the world to support Russia in this, it's not like they don't have their own territorial ambitions in their own backyard. Tit for tat.

They could start with Outer Manchuria north of the Amur River that they had to cede to Russia in 1858 in what Chinese history considers an "unequal treaty".

[Monoriu]

To be honest, China have all the motives in the world to support Russia in this, it's not like they don't have their own territorial ambitions in their own backyard. Tit for tat.

They could start with Outer Manchuria north of the Amur River that they had to cede to Russia in 1858 in what Chinese history considers an "unequal treaty".

I've never heard of anyone demanding Outer Manchuria back.  China considers its borders with Russia fixed and the case closed.  They decided to split some disputed island in the middle of a river a few years back, and that's that.  The real disputes are with Japan, India, and the South China Seas.   

[Tamas]

IDK about China. They have more lucrative stuff to grab from Russia if things are pushed into armed conflict, with much less to lose than starting even just a trade war with America.