Ukraine's European Revolution?

[Queequeg]

This is terrifying.

Well you are the Russia fanboi. Enjoy it

[Tamas]

Looking at Putin, I would think he has a plan in place that will let him come out as savior of the peace/day/Russia without too much real effort, kind of like he orchestrated it with Syria's chemical weapons.

I would think he could have done that without occupying the strategic points in the peninsula. This is pretty much an act of war and the only reason it will not be recognised as such is that Ukraine will not dare fighting him, with a destabilized and bankrupt hinterland.

[DGuller]

The West is going to have to make a decision about this fairly quickly I would think

My prediction is for them dithering and doing nothing.

Exactly.  It's still 1936 in this universe.

[PDH]

We need Zombie von Manstein to free the Crimea.

[Syt]

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/02/28/ukraine-crisis-putin-idUKL6N0LX0BK20140228

Kremlin issues conciliatory Putin statement

* Putin leaves others to make bellicose statements

* Ukraine accuses Kremlin over Crimea events

By Elizabeth Piper

MOSCOW, Feb 28 (Reuters) - At almost midnight and with little fanfare, the Kremlin put out a statement outlining President Vladimir Putin's orders on Ukraine - and they were as conciliatory as earlier Russian announcements had been confrontational.

Ordering his government to work with Ukrainian and foreign partners to find a financial package to shore up Ukraine's collapsing finances, Putin struck a measured note compared to the military muscle-flexing of other officials, who had put thousands of Russian troops on high alert.

As the Kremlin issued its statement, armed men in Ukraine's Crimea region, thought to be ethnic Russians, were holed up in the local parliament. Within hours, Ukraine had accused Russian forces of taking over two airports on the Black Sea peninsula, despite Moscow's denials.

Later on Friday, ousted President Viktor Yanukovich turned up in Russia - a move by Moscow that could anger the West or be intended to taunt Ukraine's new leaders, who want him extradited to face accusations of mass murder.

Since Moscow lost a struggle with the West for influence in Ukraine, Putin's policy has been to allow his lieutenants to stir up passions over a change in power in its "brotherly nation" while he stands above the fray.

But his mild words, Kremlin insiders say, conceal a more active plan, one that is informed by a strong sense of betrayal over the West's abandoning of an EU-brokered peace deal signed last week in Ukraine and acceptance of "illegitimate" rulers.

The question now for Russia is how much to spend to help the Slavic, Orthodox Christian neighbour and its crumbling economy.

"No matter what Russia does, Kiev will be firmly pro-Western. The only question left is are we prepared to pay more for this course or not?" said Alexei Pushkov, a Putin loyalist and a senior member of parliament.

CONSULTATIONS

The Kremlin said in its statement Putin had ordered his government "to conduct consultations with foreign partners, including the International Monetary Fund, on the provision of financial aid to Ukraine".

The three-paragraph statement issued at 11:45 p.m. offered little insight into the mind of a man who hoped Ukraine would play a central role in his project for a trade bloc stretching from the frontiers of China to the edge of the EU.

But it spoke volumes to his attitude towards Western support for the new leadership in Ukraine, and contained a veiled warning along the lines of - if you hold talks on rescuing Kiev from bankruptcy without us, Moscow will act.

Russia looks unlikely to press on with its $15-billion bailout for Ukraine, which had been seen as a reward for Yanukovich's decision to spurn a trade deal with the European Union in favour of closer ties to Moscow, and Ukraine is now looking for funds from the West.

A mission from the International Monetary Fund is due in Kiev next week, and Ukraine's new leadership has said it will meet any conditions.

"For him (Putin), Kiev no longer exists. There was an agreement with Western countries which those Western countries did not fulfil. I think that is uppermost in his thoughts," said Gleb Pavlovsky, a former Kremlin spin doctor.

"He was tricked and he has to punish that."

There was no immediate way to confirm whether the Kremlin had any connection with the fast-moving events in Crimea, Ukraine's only region with an ethnic Russian majority, which Ukraine's government described as an invasion by Russian forces.

Pavlovsky and other Russian insiders said Putin's role in Crimea could be similar to what he believes the West did when violent protesters took control of the situation in Kiev - standing back and letting local events take their course.

Ukraine's top security official blamed the Kremlin directly, saying it was commanding the armed groups in Crimea.

"I don't think Putin is waiting for anything, he is acting according to his plan," said Pavlovsky. "I see action, the taking of Crimea. I think this is action."

Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said: "I am not commenting. This is all rubbish."

MOVES IN RUSSIAN PARLIAMENT

Russia's lower house of parliament, the State Duma, has said it is ready to discuss a draft proposal to make it easier for a country or a region to become part of Russia if it has expressed a desire to do so in a referendum.

Yanukovich wants Russia, and Putin, to do more.

"I think that Russia should act and is obliged to act. And knowing Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin's personality, I am surprised that he is still saying nothing," he told a news conference in the southern city of Rostov-on-Don.

He said he had spoken to Putin since Kiev a week ago but had not met him.

Kremlin insiders said Yanukovich could not have arrived in Russia without Putin's blessing. His presence could force the Russian leader to show more solidarity, despite Putin's animosity for man he sees as weak.

"I think Putin probably said to Yanukovich, why are you here? Go back to Ukraine where you are president," said Sergei Markov, a Russian political analyst.

"Putin wants to be constructive ... but the West told him to get lost and 'we will give you no role in Ukrainian affairs' ... He will continue to be silent as long as the West ignores Russian interests."

[Admiral Yi]

Partition is the way to go.

[Tamas]

We joke about appeasement, but to be honest I prefer that over a NATO vs. Russia shooting match. That's like one bad move from nuclear holocaust, and I am not ready to see civilization crumble because of Ukraine.

That said "let's partition Ukraine" and other comments sound very much like what happened in the 30s, indeed.

[alfred russel]

The West is going to have to make a decision about this fairly quickly I would think

My prediction is for them dithering and doing nothing.

And that decision has already been made.

[crazy canuck]

Partition is the way to go.

Exactly what Putin hoped you would say

[DGuller]

Partition is the way to go.

Crimea is Ukraine's Sudetenland.  The only solution that will bring about lasting peace is ceding it. 

[alfred russel]

We joke about appeasement, but to be honest I prefer that over a NATO vs. Russia shooting match. That's like one bad move from nuclear holocaust, and I am not ready to see civilization crumble because of Ukraine.

That said "let's partition Ukraine" and other comments sound very much like what happened in the 30s, indeed.

There is a clear red line. And that red line is EU states, possibly excluding the baltics.

[Valmy]

Partition is the way to go.

Crimea is Ukraine's Sudetenland.  The only solution that will bring about lasting peace is ceding it. 

I would hope we at least force elections to decide this.  The Russians might agree since they would probably win in the Crimea anyway.

[Barrister]

The West is going to have to make a decision about this fairly quickly I would think

I don't know about that.  I think it is Putin who will need to make a decisions about exactly what he is doing.

Sure, he can turn Crimea into another Abkhazia, but does that really serve Russia's interests?  What Putin wants is a complaint government in Kiev under Russian influence.  But getting into a good old fashioned territorial dispute seems more likely to gain the new interim government more support from the Ukrainian population, not less.

I rather suspect that Putin has ordered this as something of a show of strength, but that he'd be foolish to try and turn this into something permanent.

[Tamas]

18:02: US lawmakers say they are writing legislation to authorise financial and technical assistance for Ukraine, Reuters reports. Details of the package are still being hammered out, it says, but Chairman of the Senate subcommittee on European Affairs Senator Chris Murphy said the package would be part of "a broader, co-ordinated programme" with the EU, IMF and other international partners.

Now this is the other thing: if I were Putin, I would not stop at Crimea. He needs to steamroll Ukraine as a whole, or as big parts of it as possible because whatever remains outside of his control will become very pro-west very quickly.

[DGuller]

We joke about appeasement, but to be honest I prefer that over a NATO vs. Russia shooting match. That's like one bad move from nuclear holocaust, and I am not ready to see civilization crumble because of Ukraine.

Problem is, where does this stop?  Today it's former USSR, what if tomorrow it's Warsaw Pact?  They'll still have nuclear weapons then.