ECB and Inflation

[Richard Hakluyt]

Which is why Greece will be punished........pour encourager les autres.

[Martinus]

Isn't Sheilbn comfy on a beach there right now? Hope he brought enough cash with him.

The capital controls do not affect tourists (they only affect cards issued by Greek banks). So he should be fine.

[celedhring]

Which is why Greece will be punished........pour encourager les autres.

It's stupid though. Money doesn't care who is right, it only cares about the building not being rocked. Punishing Greece makes Spain, Italy, etc... look less safe, not more.

[Martinus]

The problem comes from the fact that because of the intermediate nature of the EU monetary union (it is neither a confederation of fully sovereign states, each with its own currency; nor a unitary federation with a common currency) that any solution is subject to both a political and an economic test - and these two are growing more and more irreconcilable. And this is true on both sides - for example right now the biggest obstacle to an economically viable solution is German politics.

I definitely have a lot more sympathy for the Greek government than I have for the Greek people - but at the same time, there is also the issue that punishing a country smacks too much of a collective punishment - something that never works (and, if Versailles has taught us anything, can lead to very nasty unforeseeable consequences).

[The Brain]

Which is why Greece will be punished........pour encourager les autres.

If they get punished. Europe hasn't been ruled well in a long time.

[The Brain]

The problem comes from the fact that because of the intermediate nature of the EU monetary union (it is neither a confederation of fully sovereign states, each with its own currency; nor a unitary federation with a common currency) that any solution is subject to both a political and an economic test - and these two are growing more and more irreconcilable. And this is true on both sides - for example right now the biggest obstacle to an economically viable solution is German politics.

I definitely have a lot more sympathy for the Greek government than I have for the Greek people - but at the same time, there is also the issue that punishing a country smacks too much of a collective punishment - something that never works (and, if Versailles has taught us anything, can lead to very nasty unforeseeable consequences).

Yes, heaven forbid a Greek Hitler tries to conquer the world. The only question is, would we notice the attempt?

[Monoriu]

So how is this going to play out?  A no vote means the EU states will either have to backdown and lend money to Greece after all, or accept a Greece exit from the Euro.  Presumably Syriza is banking on the former happening.  A yes vote means the Syriza government will probably have to resign, and Greece will need to hold elections.  The new government will negotiate with the EU states again. 

[Syt]

IMHO a united currency only makes sense if you have a united economic policy (which the countries are unwilling to give up), with the same game rules (taxes, subsidies, pensions, welfare, social security etc.) in the whole Eurozone.

I.e. the member countries should have as much influence on their numbers as the states in Germany have on their state numbers. Of course that would require providing Brussels with a) more powers and b) more democratic legitimization. And also with transfer payments from the rich states to the weaker ones (as you have in Germany).

The Euro crisis would have been an opportunity to integrate further, but instead it may lead to more division.

[Martinus]

The problem comes from the fact that because of the intermediate nature of the EU monetary union (it is neither a confederation of fully sovereign states, each with its own currency; nor a unitary federation with a common currency) that any solution is subject to both a political and an economic test - and these two are growing more and more irreconcilable. And this is true on both sides - for example right now the biggest obstacle to an economically viable solution is German politics.

I definitely have a lot more sympathy for the Greek government than I have for the Greek people - but at the same time, there is also the issue that punishing a country smacks too much of a collective punishment - something that never works (and, if Versailles has taught us anything, can lead to very nasty unforeseeable consequences).

Yes, heaven forbid a Greek Hitler tries to conquer the world. The only question is, would we notice the attempt?

Greece turning to a dictatorship and allying with Putin would not be a good development.

[The Brain]

The problem comes from the fact that because of the intermediate nature of the EU monetary union (it is neither a confederation of fully sovereign states, each with its own currency; nor a unitary federation with a common currency) that any solution is subject to both a political and an economic test - and these two are growing more and more irreconcilable. And this is true on both sides - for example right now the biggest obstacle to an economically viable solution is German politics.

I definitely have a lot more sympathy for the Greek government than I have for the Greek people - but at the same time, there is also the issue that punishing a country smacks too much of a collective punishment - something that never works (and, if Versailles has taught us anything, can lead to very nasty unforeseeable consequences).

Yes, heaven forbid a Greek Hitler tries to conquer the world. The only question is, would we notice the attempt?

Greece turning to a dictatorship and allying with Putin would not be a good development.

I think you'll find that the threat in that lineup is Putin and not Greece.

[Martinus]

So how is this going to play out?  A no vote means the EU states will either have to backdown and lend money to Greece after all, or accept a Greece exit from the Euro.  Presumably Syriza is banking on the former happening.  A yes vote means the Syriza government will probably have to resign, and Greece will need to hold elections.  The new government will negotiate with the EU states again.

Greece does not want to exit from the Euro - and Varufakis has already stated that if there is an attempt to kick Greece out of Euro, Greece will fight that tooth and nail in the European Court of Justice. You have to update your game matrix, Mono.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I don't see the point about getting angry with the Greek people, they are just being Greeks and have, unsurprisingly, failed to make the grade as pretend Germans. I prefer to blame the European elites who foisted this monster on a number of countries who should never have been in the frame for membership.

The EU has been putting the cart before the horse for some time now, hence the failures. We will not become primarily Europeans rather than Germans, French etc by executive fiat; it is a long process which will take decades of mingling. The impatience of the EU elite has set the project back by many years, they seem to have no understanding of human nature or think that it can be legislated away.

[Monoriu]

So how is this going to play out?  A no vote means the EU states will either have to backdown and lend money to Greece after all, or accept a Greece exit from the Euro.  Presumably Syriza is banking on the former happening.  A yes vote means the Syriza government will probably have to resign, and Greece will need to hold elections.  The new government will negotiate with the EU states again.

Greece does not want to exit from the Euro - and Varufakis has already stated that if there is an attempt to kick Greece out of Euro, Greece will fight that tooth and nail in the European Court of Justice. You have to update your game matrix, Mono.

I don't think it is a matter of whether they want to exit or not.  They don't have enough Euros to pay their civil servants, pensioners, imported goods and whatnot.  If they don't get the Euros from somebody, then they may be forced to print their own money to pay their bills.

[Martinus]

Mono, you are repeating this bullshit again despite this has been explained many times before. Greece now actually has a domestic surplus (thanks to very heavy austerity they implemented) - they *can* pay their civil servants, pensioners etc. What they can't pay is interest on their external debt. And they are perfectly happy to stop doing that without leaving the Euro.

[Monoriu]

Mono, you are repeating this bullshit again despite this has been explained many times before. Greece now actually has a domestic surplus (thanks to very heavy austerity they implemented) - they *can* pay their civil servants, pensioners etc. What they can't pay is interest on their external debt. And they are perfectly happy to stop doing that without leaving the Euro.

Really?  At least, their banks don't seem to be able to pay their depositors without EU help.