Arab Spring, Round 2

[The Brain]

We could divert the Nile. This would solve many problems.

Blow up the dam?

That would be genocide on an unprecedented scale. 

Only in the loosest sense of the word.

Not sure what you mean by this?

Destroying the Aswan dam would kill like 90% of Egyptians wouldn't it?

It's not really genocide when you're talking about subhuman rapists, is it?

[katmai]

Woah when did swedes get dragged into the conversation ?

[Agelastus]

90% of the population lives in the flood plain of the Nile, what do you think's going to happen to them if Lak Nasser is released by the destruction of the Dam?

That doesn't mean it's going to wash every last one of them out to sea. Simply living in the flood plain doesn't mean your house goes under water when the river is high even if a dam breaks.  And a lot of major cities predate the lake, so it's unlikely they will be washed away.

This is not a natural flood, it just can't be compared. This is 132 cubic kilometers of water being released.

Aswan's "long and thin" - even if the Dam is breached the Lake itself will take a long while to drain.

Do you know how long it takes the Nile to transport water from the vicinity of Aswan to the Delta, even when in Flood?

Admittedly that's probably still not enough time to evacuate everywhere...but a lot of Egypt's population live in and around the Delta - how deep will the Flood be there given it'll be able to spread out and not all arrive at once anyway?

[jimmy olsen]

Aswan's "long and thin" - even if the Dam is breached the Lake itself will take a long while to drain.

Do you know how long it takes the Nile to transport water from the vicinity of Aswan to the Delta, even when in Flood?

Admittedly that's probably still not enough time to evacuate everywhere...but a lot of Egypt's population live in and around the Delta - how deep will the Flood be there given it'll be able to spread out and not all arrive at once anyway?

Floodplain and Delta is a total of 12,750 sq miles, or 33,022 sq km
http://www.touregypt.net/egypt-info/magazine-mag05012001-magf4a.htm

If I did the math right, the water from the lake could fill that whole area to a depth of 4 meters. However, since it's draining into the plain in a flash flood the wave is going to be higher where it hits.

[Neil]

Except that the whole volume isn't released all at once.

[katmai]

If I did the math right, the water from the lake could fill that whole area to a depth of 4 meters. However, since it's draining into the plain in a flash flood the wave is going to be higher where it hits.

If your math is as shitty as your grammar you did it wrong anyways.

[alfred russel]

Egypt must really be fucked. I understand why they were afraid of Mr. Muslim Brother Mursi becoming ever more arrogant, but... what was it, 6 months ago that such crowds rallied against the military "restoring order"? Now they celebrate military takeover.

A couple I work with lives in Egypt--I posted their concerned thoughts at the initial overthrow of Mubarak as they had the concern that Mubarak was bad but that what was coming wouldn't be better (and might be worse). The reason being that Egypt doesn't have a well educated population or one with experience in controlling a government.

From what they have told me, many government functions, most notably the police, have almost stopped functioning since Mubarak left. This is as a result of government officials just disappearing. At first this was tolerated as a cost of the revolution and tolerable for the short term, but the expectation among the people was that things would be improved after elections.

[Siege]

Woah when did swedes get dragged into the conversation ?

We are all egyptians today.

[Siege]

Except that the whole volume isn't released all at once.

With a nuke? Hell yeah.

[Siege]

Ok, lets do the math how much conventional explosives we need to bring the dam down, and hope we don't end up in jail in Texas with a 500,000 dollar bail.

[crazy canuck]

I had lunch with an Egyptian friend of mine in May during which time he said very matter of factly that the government would be finished before the end of June.  He wasnt wrong by much.

His explanation was that the economic situation in Egypt was getting very bad for people who might have been sympathetic to rule by the Muslim Brothers - the poor.  The infrastructure for the government providing aid or economic relief had broken down completely.

He said that it was plain to everyone that a change was coming.  The open question was and is, what that change would be.

[Malthus]

I had lunch with an Egyptian friend of mine in May during which time he said very matter of factly that the government would be finished before the end of June.  He wasnt wrong by much.

His explanation was that the economic situation in Egypt was getting very bad for people who might have been sympathetic to rule by the Muslim Brothers - the poor.  The infrastructure for the government providing aid or economic relief had broken down completely.

He said that it was plain to everyone that a change was coming.  The open question was and is, what that change would be.

The problem here is that Egypt's social, economic and environmental problems are so horrific that I doubt any government, however uncorrupt, popular, legitimate and unified, would be able to solve them - and any government Egypt is likely to obtain is probably going to be none of these things.   

[Cecil]

I had lunch with an Egyptian friend of mine in May during which time he said very matter of factly that the government would be finished before the end of June.  He wasnt wrong by much.

His explanation was that the economic situation in Egypt was getting very bad for people who might have been sympathetic to rule by the Muslim Brothers - the poor.  The infrastructure for the government providing aid or economic relief had broken down completely.

He said that it was plain to everyone that a change was coming.  The open question was and is, what that change would be.

The problem here is that Egypt's social, economic and environmental problems are so horrific that I doubt any government, however uncorrupt, popular, legitimate and unified, would be able to solve them - and any government Egypt is likely to obtain is probably going to be none of these things.   

Which was pretty much what I was angling for when Yi said "NO you are wrong, now GO to your room".

I mean what was different for Mubarak this time when certain parts of the populace have loathed him for a long time? The economic and social framework of Egypt is collapsing and it accelerated with the economic downturn in the west making the problems impossible to hide. If anything all these revolutions have managed to make the problems worse as the parts of the society that actually functioned reasonably well is also breaking down. Egypt simply cannot support 85 million people with the limited resources at their disposal.

[Admiral Yi]

Which was pretty much what I was angling for when Yi said "NO you are wrong, now GO to your room".

This is a problem.  I disagree with someone in what I think is a calm, reasoned manner, and more often than not I get a response like this.

Please tell me what I could have done differently, in content or tone, to avoid this response.

[Neil]

Except that the whole volume isn't released all at once.

With a nuke? Hell yeah.

No, it isn't.  The water has to fit into the space provided.