Arab Spring, Round 2

[jimmy olsen]

Also you ignored the first part of what I said - normally the yearly flooding of the Nile reaches Cairo a week after it does Aswan. How much faster is the water of this "superflood" going to be travelling, then?

I don't know how to calculate that.

[Admiral Yi]

Traditionally what the US does for it's tin-pot dictator allies who need IMF money is they arrange it so that no washington consensus style pre-conditions of balanced budgets and economic reforms are required. Not so in this case. These are normal IMF conditions. Naturally Egypt can't meet them.

Your post suggests you think America cutting a sweetheart IMF deal for its geopolitical allies is a standard practice.  It's not.  To the best of my knowledge it has only happened twice: once with Russia post-breakup and once with Turkey not long after.  Also keep in mind the US has enough board votes at the IMF to block any deal, but not enough votes to push through a program others are opposed to.  There have been cases where the US was on the short side of a program vote.  And it's also difficult to argue that in both those cases of soft geopolitically driven programs the US was the primary beneficiary of the stability those loans bought.

[Savonarola]

Republicans

Egypt unrest: Morsi marchers die as army fires

Egyptian troops have opened fire on supporters of ousted President Mohammed Morsi marching in Cairo, killing three people and wounding dozens more.

The shooting came as crowds moved on the Republican Guard headquarters, where Mr Morsi is believed to be held.

Later the Muslim Brotherhood's leader told supporters that protests would continue until Mr Morsi was reinstated.

The army, which removed Mr Morsi on Wednesday after days of unrest, denied shooting live rounds at demonstrators.

However the BBC's Jeremy Bowen at the scene says he saw soldiers fire on the protesters on Friday.

About 2,000 people had marched on the officers' club of the Republican Guard after passionate Friday Prayers at the nearby Rabaa al-Adawiya Mosque.

Pro-Morsi protester, Cairo, 5 July Supporters of Mr Morsi gathered after Friday Prayers to demand his reinstatement
As the crowd grew, got angrier and pushed forward, the troops opened fire - first into the air, then at the crowd, our correspondent reports.

One man fell to the ground with blood on his clothes, says our correspondent - who was himself lightly wounded in the head by shotgun pellets.

Three people were killed and 69 injured in the shooting, the head of Cairo's emergency services said.

By evening, tens of thousands of Muslim Brotherhood supporters had massed outside Rabaa al-Adawiya Mosque and filled nearby streets.

The Brotherhood's supreme leader, Mohammed Badie, told the crowd: "We shall stay in the squares until we bring President Morsi back to power."

Mr Badie also denied reports that he had been arrested on Thursday.

Supporters of Mr Morsi have been rallying across Egypt to demand his reinstatement.

In Qina in the south, security forces opened fire on protesters trying to storm a security building. At least two people were injured.

Shots have also been fired in Alexandria in the north, Egypt's second-largest city.

Meanwhile the Tamarod [Rebel] movement - which organised recent protests calling for Mr Morsi to stand down - on Friday urged supporters to take to the streets again to "protect the revolution".

Tamarod and other anti-Morsi forces accuse Mr Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood - to which he belongs - of pursuing an Islamist agenda against the wishes of the majority, and of failing to tackle economic problems.

Pro-Morsi protester, Cairo, 5 July The Muslim Brotherhood has vowed to stay on the street
Ahead of Friday's rallies by Morsi supporters, the army command said it would not take "arbitrary measures against any faction or political current" and would guarantee the right to protest, as long as demonstrations did not threaten national security.

"Peaceful protest and freedom of expression are rights guaranteed to everyone, which Egyptians have earned as one of the most important gains of their glorious revolution," it said.

New spy chief

Muslim Brotherhood spokesman Gehad al-Haddad said the movement was refusing to co-operate with the new leadership and demanded the immediate release of those detained.

UK Foreign Secretary William Hague tweeted that he was "very concerned by reports of deaths in Cairo".

Mr Morsi, Egypt's first freely elected leader, is in detention, as are senior figures in the Brotherhood. Arrest warrants have been issued for some 300 others.

On Thursday the head of Egypt's constitutional court, Adly Mahmud Mansour, was sworn in as interim head of state and promised elections soon.

On Friday Mr Mansour dissolved the upper house - or Shura Council - which had been dominated by Morsi supporters and had served as sole legislative body after the lower house was dissolved last year.

Mr Mansour also named a new intelligence chief, Mohamed Ahmed Farid.

Mr Morsi's removal followed several days of unrest in which dozens of people died.

[garbon]

Assuming the next leader is a democratic one, I don't know that a Washington or a Mandela would be able to succeed. The problem with the coup is that a presumably large portion of population won't view the new administration as legitimate. Coupled with huge problems in Egypt, I don't think this is an opportunity for success.

Depends what you think "success" might be.  Egypt could very much use a Mandela who will not use power to further narrow political interests but rather will try to govern in an inclusive manner.  That seems to be one of the major problems with the Brotherhood.

Would that even be such a great thing? It isn't like South Africa is a lovely place post-Mandela.

[Savonarola]

Probably a good time to get a bargain on a Nile cruise:

Egypt tense after night-long clashes
Supporters of ousted president call for more demonstrations following violent clashes that left 30 dead across country.
Last Modified: 06 Jul 2013 13:09


A tense calm has descended on Egypt after a night of fierce clashes between supporters and opponents of the ousted President Mohamed Morsi.

At least 30 people were killed and more than 1,000 wounded in the violence that erupted on Friday and continued through the night.

A coalition of conservative groups led by Muslim Brotherhood has vowed further demonstrations on Saturday, raising fears of renewed violence.The coalition is demanding the restoration of Morsi as president. He was deposed three days ago in a military coup.



Battle lines remain drawn as anti-Morsi protesters spent the night in Cairo's Tahrir Square, with checkpoints manned by civilians. Pro-Morsi supporters have also vowed to come on to the streets to press their demand.

"The masses will continue their civilised protests and peaceful sit-ins in Cairo until the military coup is reversed and the legitimate president is restored," the Brotherhood-led coalition said in an early morning statement on Saturday.

Meanwhile, a deputy leader of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, former presidential candidate Khairat El-Shater, has been arrested.

Security sources said on Saturday that Shater, a wealthy businessman seen as the movement's main political strategist, was taken into custody on suspicion of incitement to violence.

Mohamed Badie, the top leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, gave a defiant speech on Friday to a crowd of Morsi supporters and vowed to protect Morsi's presidency.

"God make Morsi victorious and bring him back to the palace," he said in the speech, which was partially aired on state TV. "We are his soldiers, we defend him with our lives."

A new Islamist group also announced its formation in Egypt, calling the army's ousting of Morsi a declaration of war on its faith and threatening to use violence to impose Islamic law.

Ansar al-Shariah in Egypt said it would gather arms and start training its members, in a statement posted on an online forum for fighters in the country's Sinai region on Friday.

Violence through the night

Friday's clashes were triggered by the death of three Morsi supporters - reportedly killed by gunfire as they tried to march towards the military barracks where Morsi is believed to be held.

Morsi supporters blamed the military for the incident, a claim rejected by the army.

Rival groups also clashed near Tahrir Square. The overnight fighting finally subsided when the army separated the warring groups using armoured vehicles.

"We are not taking sides. Our mission is to secure the lives of protesters," military spokesman Colonel Ahmed Ali told AFP news agency.

Meanwhile, the US condemned the fighting and urged all sides, including the army, to stop the violence.

"We condemn the violence that has taken place today in Egypt. We call on all Egyptian leaders to condemn the use of force and to prevent further violence among their supporters," State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said in a statement.

"We expect the military to ensure that the rights of all Egyptians are protected, including the right to peaceful assembly, and we call on all who are protesting to do so peacefully."

A spokesman for the UN chief Ban Ki-moon quoted him calling for a peaceful end to the crisis.

"There is no place for retribution or for the exclusion of any major party or community," Ban reportedly said.

Cairo in chaos

After nightfall on Friday, a crowd of Morsi supporters marched from Nasr City, a district of Cairo, towards the Maspero state TV building and clashed with anti-Morsi protesters on the 6th October Bridge, which is located over the Nile River.

One man was seen apparently firing a gun, while gunshots could he heard in the area. People were seen throwing rocks as the two sides advanced and retreated in turn on the bridge near Tahrir Square.

Four protesters were killed outside the Republican Guard headquarters after breaking away from a pro-Morsi demonstration, the official MENA news agency reported.

MENA also said that 12 people were killed in Alexandria.

Rioting was also reported in Al Manial district, an island in the Nile River, between Cairo and Giza, according to state TV.

Five policemen had been killed in the northern Sinai town of El-Arish, after a soldier was also killed in the region.

Egyptian armed forces denied reports that a state of emergency had been declared in the troubled Sinai Peninsula, and that curfews had been imposed.

[Savonarola]

On the other hand it's not all bad news in the Middle East.  It sounds like peace will be returning to Syria very soon:

Assad forces in onslaught on Homs

Assad forces seize control of buildings in strategic rebel-held area, as warplanes strike towns around Damascus.
Last Modified: 06 Jul 2013 11:01



Homs has paid an enormous human and material price for the uprising [Lens Young Homsi]

Forces loyal to the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad are advancing in rebel-held parts of the central city of Homs, both the opposition and state media have said.

Homs-based activist Tarik Badrakhan said on Saturday that Syrian troops seized control of buildings in the opposition-contolled district of Khaldiyeh, the first time government forces entered Homs neighbourhoods held by rebels for over a year.

Syrian state media said troops were advancing and they had killed rebels in the area.

Badrakhan said troops began to advance on Friday night.

Homs is a strategic city located between the capital Damascus and the Syrian coast, a stronghold for the Assad regime.

Homs, considered the "capital of the revolution", has paid an enormous human and material price for the uprising against Assad's regime that began in March 2011 and has since evolved into fully-fledged civil war.

Activists claim that fighters from Lebanon's Hezbollah Shia armed movement, which has sided with Assad's forces, have been battling rebels in the city.

Hezbollah fighters helped the Syrian army capture Qusayr, a key town near Lebanon's border last month, dealing a blow to opposition fighters who have been ferrying supplies and fighters over the border.

Air strikes

Elsewhere on Saturday, Syrian warplanes launched a series of strikes on the outskirts of Damascus.

"Warplanes carried out several air strikes on the edges of Assali [in the south] and Qaboon (east)," said the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

The Observatory also reported fresh clashes in Assali as well as in the southwestern neighbourhood of Qadam, adding that the army shelled rebel-held Yarmouk in the south and Jobar in the east.

Air strikes also targeted other rebel areas east of Damascus, among them rebel bastion Zamalka, said the group.

Central Damascus is still squarely in army hands.

The latest reports of violence came just as the opposition Syrian National Coalition voted on to elect a new leader.

The top two candidates, however, failed to gain a simple majority needed to become president of the Coalition.

A runoff ballot was scheduled for later on Saturday after Ahmad Jarba, a tribal figure linked with Saudi Arabia, and Mustafa al-Sabbagh, a businessman who is Qatar's point man, did not gain more than half of the votes in the 115 member Coalition in an early morning ballot in Istanbul.

The Coalition has been without a leader for months after its head quit over disagreement over potential talks with Assad's government.

I love the word "Onslaught."  You just don't see that enough in the west; outside of college football season.

[The Brain]

I'll wait for the Vogue celebratory issue.

[DGuller]

No more Allahu Akbar videos? 

[Savonarola]

No more Allahu Akbar videos? 

We'll always have Palestine for those.  Always.   

[CountDeMoney]

So they've named Mohamd Elbaradei as the next Egyptian PM to be overthrown by the army.

[Viking]

So they've named Mohamd Elbaradei as the next Egyptian PM to be overthrown by the army.

They'll keep it up until the people of Egypt realize the most important truth about a democratic government. It isn't there to do stuff for the people. It is the people acting in congress. If the egyptian citizen think that he can just stand by while he grants the latest in a long line of coup victims to be license to try and run the country it will always fail.

[Tamas]

So they've named Mohamd Elbaradei as the next Egyptian PM to be overthrown by the army.

They'll keep it up until the people of Egypt realize the most important truth about a democratic government. It isn't there to do stuff for the people. It is the people acting in congress. If the egyptian citizen think that he can just stand by while he grants the latest in a long line of coup victims to be license to try and run the country it will always fail.

You are right but good luck with that. "Government isn't there to do stuff for people" is a novel concept to a significant portion of the world.

[The Brain]

lol "congress"

[jimmy olsen]

Got this headline on NBC.com, no article yet

BREAKING: 42 killed, 322 hurt in clashes near Republican Guard HQ in Cairo

Might have to start and Egypt disintegrating thread soon.

[Razgovory]

So they've named Mohamd Elbaradei as the next Egyptian PM to be overthrown by the army.

They'll keep it up until the people of Egypt realize the most important truth about a democratic government. It isn't there to do stuff for the people. It is the people acting in congress. If the egyptian citizen think that he can just stand by while he grants the latest in a long line of coup victims to be license to try and run the country it will always fail.

You are right but good luck with that. "Government isn't there to do stuff for people" is a novel concept to a significant portion of the world.

What is it there for, Tamas.