Iran War?

[crazy canuck]

Everything gets more expensive when oil and gas prices go up.

Americans are doing alright but we are all struggling...or thriving...with large amounts of debt. Any adversity causes everybody to panic.

OVB's response makes me think the US is getting close to its "let them eat cake" moment.

[Jacob]

Isn't that what the whole "K-shaped recovery" conversation is about? People who are on the right side of the asset divide are doing good if not great. People who are not, are having a much harder time.

It's probably true that the people on the downward slide of the K are still better off than poor people in the 1930s or whenever, but if they're experiencing a decline over the last 10 years or so, especially if the story's been "a rising tide lifts all boats" then it's still going to sting.

[Valmy]

Isn't that what the whole "K-shaped recovery" conversation is about? People who are on the right side of the asset divide are doing good if not great. People who are not, are having a much harder time.

It's probably true that the people on the downward slide of the K are still better off than poor people in the 1930s or whenever, but if they're experiencing a decline over the last 10 years or so, especially if the story's been "a rising tide lifts all boats" then it's still going to sting.

The difference is that people in the 1930s weren't heavily leveraged in basically every aspect of their lives. Granted few of them even had access to credit.

[crazy canuck]

Isn't that what the whole "K-shaped recovery" conversation is about? People who are on the right side of the asset divide are doing good if not great. People who are not, are having a much harder time.

It's probably true that the people on the downward slide of the K are still better off than poor people in the 1930s or whenever, but if they're experiencing a decline over the last 10 years or so, especially if the story's been "a rising tide lifts all boats" then it's still going to sting.

What Valmy said, and in addition to that, I think those on the bottom of the upward trajectory of the K are also not only feeling but are actually less well off.  People with what would have been very good jobs and decent savings are having trouble making ends meet.  The cost of living was already too high in relation to income, and it's about to get much worse.

[viper37]

Oh JFC.  You can't invent this.  The Onion is gonna go bankrupt if they're getting ripped off like that.

Trump administration may unsanction some Iranian oil as energy prices spike, Bessent says

The Treasury secretary said the Trump administration has several "levers" to pull as war in the Middle East roils oil markets. 


The Trump administration may suspend sanctions on Iranian oil already at sea in a bid to clamp down on energy prices that have shot up amid the war in the Middle East, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday.

It's the latest play weighed by the administration to stabilize the oil market against price shocks since the U.S. and Israel launched their joint operation in February. The maneuver could free up 140 million barrels of Iranian oil for global use, Bessent said.

"In essence, we will be using the Iranian barrels against the Iranians to keep the price down for the next 10 or 14 days, as we continue this campaign," he said on Fox Business.
[Note: LOL!  Genius move right there!]

It's one of several "levers" Bessent said the administration has at its disposal, as Iranian attacks cripple the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway that carries roughly 20 percent of the world's oil supply. The administration could also make more oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve available, Bessent added. The administration already started making 172 million barrels from the SPR available.

"So we have lots of levers, we've got plenty more that we can do," Bessent said. "Some countries are going to do more, the U.S. could unilaterally do another SPR release to keep the price down."

The White House has discussed adding up to 100 million more barrels to the administration's pledge last week, said a person familiar with the plan who was granted anonymity to discuss conversations within the administration.

"Some military advisers are concerned [about] draining so much, and are pushing for more like 50 million barrels on the concern that further destruction of oil and gas infrastructure in the [Middle East] region could leave the country vulnerable from a reserve standpoint," this person said.

A spokesperson for the Department of Energy — which controls the SPR — said in a statement following Bessent's interview there were currently no plans for another release.

"The United States has taken several actions thus far to mitigate disruptions to energy markets," DOE spokesperson Ben Dietderich said. "While the U.S. continues to consider all options to keep markets supplied, there are currently no plans for an additional SPR release."

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Oil and product flows through the strait have plummeted from roughly 20 million barrels a day to just "a trickle," the International Energy Agency reported last week, marking the largest supply disruption in history. U.S. gas prices are up by more than 85 cents per gallon from the start of the war.

Bessent called the blockade a "temporary chokepoint" and implored American allies to help secure the strait.
"They're the ones who need this oil," he said. "The U.S., we're an oil exporter."

Trump, in the meantime, has skewered American allies, oscillating between calling for their assistance to insisting on Truth Social that "WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE."

"We are intervening in markets by creating this excess supply with oil that's on the water," Bessent said Thursday.

Add to this the 200$ billion that Hegseth is demanding for his war that is already won.  Things are going so well for the US right now.

[Jacob]

What's the $200 billion Hegseth is demanding? Is this additional budget for Pentagon? Or is this money they're demanding from Iran?

[Valmy]

What's the $200 billion Hegseth is demanding? Is this additional budget for Pentagon? Or is this money they're demanding from Iran?

No. From the Feds. Heat up the money printers.

[viper37]

What's the $200 billion Hegseth is demanding? Is this additional budget for Pentagon? Or is this money they're demanding from Iran?

As Valmy said, money from the US Federal govt to conduct the war that is supposedly won and which they had already anticipated all eventuality as of last week.

You know, when he lambasted fake news from fake medias for reporting the Administration had not anticipated Iran closing the strait or Hormuz in retaliation for the attack?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QRG7HesT9Wc

[grumbler]

Oh sure I don't think it matters much at all (if anything allowing the regime to get some fresh blood and maybe hardlining) at a practical or operational level.

But I think at the level of symbol and meaning - especially for a Shia theocracy given how central martyrdom and resistance are to Shia Islam - I think it's difficult to overstate.

A key psychological factor that a lot of analysts miss.

[HisMajestyBOB]

Oh JFC.  You can't invent this.  The Onion is gonna go bankrupt if they're getting ripped off like that.

Trump administration may unsanction some Iranian oil as energy prices spike, Bessent says

The Treasury secretary said the Trump administration has several "levers" to pull as war in the Middle East roils oil markets.


The Trump administration may suspend sanctions on Iranian oil already at sea in a bid to clamp down on energy prices that have shot up amid the war in the Middle East, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday.

It's the latest play weighed by the administration to stabilize the oil market against price shocks since the U.S. and Israel launched their joint operation in February. The maneuver could free up 140 million barrels of Iranian oil for global use, Bessent said.

"In essence, we will be using the Iranian barrels against the Iranians to keep the price down for the next 10 or 14 days, as we continue this campaign," he said on Fox Business.
[Note: LOL!  Genius move right there!]

It's one of several "levers" Bessent said the administration has at its disposal, as Iranian attacks cripple the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway that carries roughly 20 percent of the world's oil supply. The administration could also make more oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve available, Bessent added. The administration already started making 172 million barrels from the SPR available.

"So we have lots of levers, we've got plenty more that we can do," Bessent said. "Some countries are going to do more, the U.S. could unilaterally do another SPR release to keep the price down."

The White House has discussed adding up to 100 million more barrels to the administration's pledge last week, said a person familiar with the plan who was granted anonymity to discuss conversations within the administration.

"Some military advisers are concerned [about] draining so much, and are pushing for more like 50 million barrels on the concern that further destruction of oil and gas infrastructure in the [Middle East] region could leave the country vulnerable from a reserve standpoint," this person said.

A spokesperson for the Department of Energy — which controls the SPR — said in a statement following Bessent's interview there were currently no plans for another release.

"The United States has taken several actions thus far to mitigate disruptions to energy markets," DOE spokesperson Ben Dietderich said. "While the U.S. continues to consider all options to keep markets supplied, there are currently no plans for an additional SPR release."

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Oil and product flows through the strait have plummeted from roughly 20 million barrels a day to just "a trickle," the International Energy Agency reported last week, marking the largest supply disruption in history. U.S. gas prices are up by more than 85 cents per gallon from the start of the war.

Bessent called the blockade a "temporary chokepoint" and implored American allies to help secure the strait.
"They're the ones who need this oil," he said. "The U.S., we're an oil exporter."

Trump, in the meantime, has skewered American allies, oscillating between calling for their assistance to insisting on Truth Social that "WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE."

"We are intervening in markets by creating this excess supply with oil that's on the water," Bessent said Thursday.

Add to this the 200$ billion that Hegseth is demanding for his war that is already won.  Things are going so well for the US right now.

Maybe we could sell arms to Iran for that $200 billion. 

[Sheilbh]

This is what you said "But I think at the level of symbol and meaning - especially for a Shia theocracy given how central martyrdom and resistance are to Shia Islam - I think it's difficult to overstate."

If you think an argument that "the level of symbol and meaning" based on an assertion that there a "central martyrdom and resistance" in Shia Islam, is not based on a stereotype of those who are Shia, then you and I are  just going to have to agree to disagree.

It would be like saying that all Christians have a central theme of loving their neighbours.  Its a ridiculous statement, but you can get away with it here because few people have any experience with Shia religionists, and so are likely to take that kind of statement at face value.

Again you are gliding from a statement about a faith to meaning "all Shia" which is obviously mad and not what I said. I'm literally not saying anything about Shia Muslims. I think you're also assuming a pejorative in there which I'm certainly not intending.

I think the crucifixion and resurrection are central to Christianity and, in a Christian theocracy, would be very important at the level of the symbolic or for meaning. It would be a resource of belief and ideological power (and interpretive frame) that type of regime could draw on with deep roots because it is a core part of the faith. In the same way as national myths have profound ideological power (and can also involve narratives of martyrdom and resistance and resurrection). I think there's definitely secular and non-nationalist versions of this too.

Again you can see this in the Islamic Revolution where Ashura is a focus for protests but so too is the cycle of mourning those killed by the Shah. The religious significance (or echoes) for a religious, revolutionary movement was hugely important in making meaning which helped maintain and drive the momentum of the revolution and harden the vanguard element - I think further sustained beyond the initial revolutionary moment by the Iran-Iraq war and, I suspect, quite possibly being renewed as we speak. It's not about "all" of anyone - but I think as people who truly believe in the system of the Islamic Republic and in the revolution, these are resources that the leaders will be using in their own framing or understanding but also at a regime level. (Honestly it's not a religious comparison and many huge differences but I keep thinking of the USSR moving from the revolutionary generation and symbolism to the Great Patriotic War).

[viper37]

Maybe we could sell arms to Iran for that $200 billion. 

Shht.

Do not give them ideas. 

[HisMajestyBOB]

Maybe we could sell arms to Iran for that $200 billion. 

Shht.

Do not give them ideas. 

Of course, Iran probably can't afford that. So Russia can loan Iran the money after we lift sanctions on Russia.

[DGuller]

Maybe we could sell arms to Iran for that $200 billion. 

Shht.

Do not give them ideas. 

I heard they're really desperate for nukes, I'm sure they'll pay pretty penny for a couple of warheads.