Israel-Hamas War 2023

[viper37]

In any case even if 10% support Hamas and 90% support somebody else I don't see much evidence those 90% like something I am going to be excited about.

I don't think the Palestinians are in favor of "peace and justice" as you and I would define it after so many long years of warfare.

The links I posted above marked a net decrease in the belief that peace is possible on both side.

And previous links I posted before have Shin Beth warning the government over the years (nothing new) that its policies have increased the radicalization of Palestinians and pushed them away from the PA toward more aggressive movements.  Again, nothing surprising here.  Not an excuse, but I understand the trend: people are getting attacked, their "government" is unable to help them, the IDF either helps or watches silently has it happens.

And there's a tendency in this part of the world for justice to mean that "you kill one of mine I will kill 10 of yours if I can".  So a settler kills a Palestinian boy by beating him and setting him on fire.  A group of Palestinian militants targets Isreali civilians somewhere as vengeance.  So the IDF starts killing Palestinians as retribution and razing their homes.  More Palestinians throw rocks at soldiers.  Palestinian children get arrested.

It's a fucking cycle of inferno.

[Josquius]

Now that's what I call a biased article.

Supporting a one state solution isn't the same thing as the implied genocide of Israelis.

It gets a lot closer to genocide when you factor in Raz's survey about attitudes towards Hamas.  And Hamas' charter.

https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/israeli-polls-regarding-peace-with-the-palestinians]Israeli attitude toward peace

Palestinian attitude toward peace


There has been a marked decline of Palestinians convictions that peace with Israel is achievable.  I do wonder why.  Could it be that they see the settlement and the attitude of Israel toward them as a problem?

I think asking the question is answering it.

The pro-Israel side is talking like it's been a status quo since 2000 and there was a functioning Palestinian state left alone peacefully in its corner that only maliciously attacked poor Israel forced to defend itself.

Also worth considering long vs. short term attitudes too.
I don't doubt current events have damaged things in the long term, but I very much doubt it'd be to the extent of the short term dip. Just go do a poll of Ukrainians/Russians and what they think of each other today vs. 15 years ago and (you'll need to wait or time travel) in 15 years time.
Or look at the state of American propaganda and belief about Japan during the war.

[Tamas]

I think you guys dismissing those Palestinian polls (except for my own caveat of try living in that part of the world and give an honest answer when somebody cold-calls you) are in contradiction with your other stance on Israel putting Palestinians into a great plight.

If the latter is true then why would it be surprising that they have extreme views about Israel?

[Josquius]

I think you guys dismissing those Palestinian polls (except for my own caveat of try living in that part of the world and give an honest answer when somebody cold-calls you) are in contradiction with your other stance on Israel putting Palestinians into a great plight.

If the latter is true then why would it be surprising that they have extreme views about Israel?

As said, one poll asked at a time when bombs are dropping on your head vs. the overall picture.
Some are using this poll where the Palestinians are pissed as justification for what made them pissed in the first place.

Also as noted some twisting of what was actually found in that poll.

[Tamas]

Apparently Chinese censors let anti-semitism in the wake of war to run free: https://youtu.be/cPpztJY_33w

[crazy canuck]

Your source is entirely inconsistent with all of the other data.

The wishcasting that either of these groups can be trusted is depressing.

In any case even if 10% support Hamas and 90% support somebody else I don't see much evidence those 90% like something I am going to be excited about.

When I hold Israelis responsible for the people they support suddenly that is ok. But if I dare point out the actions the Palestinians take suddenly the "data" says something else. Not data that has ever had any actual impact anywhere but I guess it is exists. Magic copium data. The actual data of decades of history says something quite different.

Eventually the Palestinians will get another chance to show they are in favor of peace and justice and, like the other dozens of opportunities they have had, they will show otherwise. I will be delighted to be wrong but don't try to piss on me and tell me it is raining. A large enough number of Palestinians want victory over Israel and will lie and say whatever they can to bring that about. A large enough number to poison any and everything. Thinking anything else is wishful thinking IMO.

And I am not saying the Israelis are much better, especially not the gang of assholes currently in power.

Is this a knee-jerk reaction or have you actually studied the surveys that were done prior to October 7?  There is nothing "sudden" about the studies that have examined the use of Palestinians, and in particular, the support that might exist for Hamas.  If you want to actually look at the data in a serious way, you might look at the scholarly work that has gone someway to validate the survey results that show that Hammas does not have support.

This includes a survey that coincidently ended just before the events of October 7 conducted by an international organization, not affiliated with any Palestinian group.

The problem with social media is people throughout all kinds of personal views that aren't based on anything of substance. It in flames everybody else, and it makes the whole situation worse.

[Razgovory]

A few examples of Palestinian cartoons.

This ones says "Good morning Palestine" It was after some knife attacks about 10 years back



This one was after a knife attack on a bus that wounded 10 people


This one was after an attack on a synagogue.



I think this one was part of the same campaign to get people to attack random Jews with kitchen equipment.

[Jacob]

Those are pretty heinous, Raz. That said, you can find plenty of content dehumanizing Palestinians and celebrating their suffering if you care to look for it.

[Razgovory]

This isn't about dehumanizing it's about encouraging people to murder Jews.  Both Hamas and the PA produce stuff like this and actively encourage people to kill people with knifes and cleavers.

[Razgovory]

I did try to find something encouraging the murder of Palestinians but the best I found were those Charlie Hebdo cartoons from way back.

[Jacob]

Re: polling - here's the complete data set of the poll discussed a little earlier in the thread.

Also worth noting is that prior to the current conflagration, Gazan had a low level of trust in the Hamas government with about 70% of respondents answring "not a lot" (~25%) or "none at all" (~45%) in when answering the question about how much faith they had in Hamas.

[crazy canuck]

Re: polling - here's the complete data set of the poll discussed a little earlier in the thread.

Also worth noting is that prior to the current conflagration, Gazan had a low level of trust in the Hamas government with about 70% of respondents answring "not a lot" (~25%) or "none at all" (~45%) in when answering the question about how much faith they had in Hamas.

If you are interested in knowing more, here is the interview with the person responsible for conducting that survey.  She is the dean of the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs.


Here is the introduction blurb

The day before Hamas's horrific attacks in Israel, the Arab Barometer, one of the leading polling operations in the Arab world, was finishing up a survey of public opinion in Gaza.


The result is a remarkable snapshot of how Gazans felt about Hamas and hoped the conflict with Israel would end. And what Gazans were thinking on Oct. 6 matters, now that they're all living with the brutal consequences of what Hamas did on Oct. 7.


So I invited on the show Amaney Jamal, the dean of the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, and a co-founder and co-principal investigator of Arab Barometer, so she could walk me through the results.


And, it's a complicated picture. The people of Gaza, like any other population, have diverse beliefs. But one thing is clear: Hamas was not very popular.


As Jamal and her co-author write: "The Hamas-led government may be uninterested in peace, but it is empirically wrong for Israeli political leaders to accuse all Gazans of the same."

Here is the link

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/she-polled-gazans-on-oct-6-heres-what-she-found/id1548604447?i=1000633572018

[DGuller]

Re: polling - here's the complete data set of the poll discussed a little earlier in the thread.

Also worth noting is that prior to the current conflagration, Gazan had a low level of trust in the Hamas government with about 70% of respondents answring "not a lot" (~25%) or "none at all" (~45%) in when answering the question about how much faith they had in Hamas.

So Hamas became a lot more popular with Gazans after it slaughtered Israeli babies?   

[Barrister]

Re: polling - here's the complete data set of the poll discussed a little earlier in the thread.

Also worth noting is that prior to the current conflagration, Gazan had a low level of trust in the Hamas government with about 70% of respondents answring "not a lot" (~25%) or "none at all" (~45%) in when answering the question about how much faith they had in Hamas.

Opposition to Hamas doesn't necessarily mean willing to make peace with Israel.

You see this in Russia these days.  There's a lot of opposition to Putin - on the grounds he isn't doing enough to defeat Ukraine.

[Jacob]

So Hamas became a lot more popular with Gazans after it slaughtered Israeli babies?   

That's one interpretation. Another is that Hamas became more popular when they were the defending forces while Gaza is being attacked. Prseumably the government - i.e. Hamas - also organized whatever rescue of civilians hit by attacks and so forth. "Rallying around the flag" in times of crisis is pretty common behaviour, whatever the flag, whatever the crisis, and whatever the cause of the crisis.