Israel-Hamas War 2023

[HVC]

Re: polling - here's the complete data set of the poll discussed a little earlier in the thread.

Also worth noting is that prior to the current conflagration, Gazan had a low level of trust in the Hamas government with about 70% of respondents answring "not a lot" (~25%) or "none at all" (~45%) in when answering the question about how much faith they had in Hamas.

So Hamas became a lot more popular with Gazans after it slaughtered Israeli babies?   

Kind of what happens when you get bombed. No doubt the reaction also played into hamas' plans

[Josquius]

Yes. I do think there's a definite support your side at war even if they're shit bags factor.
See the American support our troops hysteria post 9-11 for instance.

[Admiral Yi]

Yes. I do think there's a definite support your side at war even if they're shit bags factor.
See the American support our troops hysteria post 9-11 for instance.

Definitely true of Western supporters of Palestine.  Less true of America post 9/11.

@Jacob: I read low trust in Hamas as them running a shitty government. Not so much the violence thing.

[frunk]

Yes. I do think there's a definite support your side at war even if they're shit bags factor.
See the American support our troops hysteria post 9-11 for instance.

Definitely true of Western supporters of Palestine.  Less true of America post 9/11.

I think it was very true after 9/11.  Giuliani and Bush were very unpopular until the attacks.  I don't think Bush gets a second term if 9/11 doesn't happen.

[Jacob]

@Jacob: I read low trust in Hamas as them running a shitty government. Not so much the violence thing.

Yeah that's plausible. I'm not strongly beholden to any particular argument here (though some of the attendant articles clearly are), just sharing the data.

Still, it's an open (and political) question to what degree support for Hamas (and their actions) has increased due to the violence perpetrated against Israelis vs due to the violence perpetrated against Palestinians.

[Jacob]

...Less true of America post 9/11.

Completely disagree. From my vantage point there was a massive rally around the flag effect in the US post 9/11.

[Admiral Yi]

I think it was very true after 9/11.  Giuliani and Bush were very unpopular until the attacks.  I don't think Bush gets a second term if 9/11 doesn't happen.

The statement I was reacting to was about shitbags and hysteria, not the unpopularity of politicians.

[Admiral Yi]

Still, it's an open (and political) question to what degree support for Hamas (and their actions) has increased due to the violence perpetrated against Israelis vs due to the violence perpetrated against Palestinians.

What a bizarre coincidence that the survey was conducted on the exact same day as the Hamas attack.

So if we're trying to explain a change in attitudes in favor of Hamas, we can't count in the bombing of Gaza which hadn't happened yet.  I don't know how much we can count in the Hamas attack itself, since it was ongoing at the time of the survey.

[DGuller]

So Hamas became a lot more popular with Gazans after it slaughtered Israeli babies? 

That's one interpretation. Another is that Hamas became more popular when they were the defending forces while Gaza is being attacked. Prseumably the government - i.e. Hamas - also organized whatever rescue of civilians hit by attacks and so forth. "Rallying around the flag" in times of crisis is pretty common behaviour, whatever the flag, whatever the crisis, and whatever the cause of the crisis.

I don't think rallying around the flag is a guaranteed phenomenon.  It happens when the population considers the war just.  The country being attacked pretty much always feels just, and on 9/11 US was definitely attacked.  Whether the aggressor country rallies around the flag depends a lot on whether the population feels disdain for those being attacked, or whether it's brainwashed to the point that it would support any atrocity.

[Jacob]

What a bizarre coincidence that the survey was conducted on the exact same day as the Hamas attack.

So if we're trying to explain a change in attitudes in favor of Hamas, we can't count in the bombing of Gaza which hadn't happened yet.  I don't know how much we can count in the Hamas attack itself, since it was ongoing at the time of the survey.

I hadn't noticed the date. Yeah... that's interesting.

I'd expect that the date of the attack there's probably a whole bunch of fog of war and uncertainty about exactly what happened. But definitely the attitude wouldn't reflect the results of the Israeli counter attack, since it hadn't materialized yet.

[Jacob]

I don't think rallying around the flag is a guaranteed phenomenon.  It happens when the population considers the war just.  The country being attacked pretty much always feels just, and on 9/11 US was definitely attacked.  Whether the aggressor country rallies around the flag depends a lot on whether the population feels disdain for those being attacked, or whether it's brainwashed to the point that it would support any atrocity.

Yeah, I meant rally around the flag as a response to Israel attacking Gaza - but as that hadn't happened yet, that's not relevant.

On the day of the attack I imagine it's a form of euphoria of a group that normally sees itself as powerless succeeded at making a strike against their enemy. I'm not certain how widely people were aware of the scale and nature of the atrocities perpetrated versus the more abstract idea of "a successful attack" - nor to what degree more higher awareness has to potentially change the result.

[Barrister]

I don't think rallying around the flag is a guaranteed phenomenon.  It happens when the population considers the war just.  The country being attacked pretty much always feels just, and on 9/11 US was definitely attacked.  Whether the aggressor country rallies around the flag depends a lot on whether the population feels disdain for those being attacked, or whether it's brainwashed to the point that it would support any atrocity.

I have to note that Putin has benefitted from a "rally around the flag" effect after invading Ukraine.

[DGuller]

I don't think rallying around the flag is a guaranteed phenomenon.  It happens when the population considers the war just.  The country being attacked pretty much always feels just, and on 9/11 US was definitely attacked.  Whether the aggressor country rallies around the flag depends a lot on whether the population feels disdain for those being attacked, or whether it's brainwashed to the point that it would support any atrocity.

I have to note that Putin has benefitted from a "rally around the flag" effect after invading Ukraine.

Hence my last sentence.

[viper37]

I think you guys dismissing those Palestinian polls (except for my own caveat of try living in that part of the world and give an honest answer when somebody cold-calls you) are in contradiction with your other stance on Israel putting Palestinians into a great plight.

If the latter is true then why would it be surprising that they have extreme views about Israel?

Look at the polls on the Israeli side too.  You see similar beliefs about peace.  You see a majority of Israelis who believe that there should be one state where Palestinians have much less rights than than the Jewish population, including no right to vote.

Combine this kind of attitude with everything that is happening.
I've been rereading about the 1993-1995 peace process and the attitude on both sides.  Israeli and Arabs, Jewish and Muslims dancing and chanting in the streets.  Lots of hope for peace.  Then it crashed.  Rabin backed off from the peace process because of opposition on his own side and he later got killed for giving too much.

Just a reminder about the things that were said of him:
In the weeks before the assassination, Netanyahu, then head of the opposition, and other senior Likud members attended a right-wing political rally in Jerusalem where protesters branded Rabin a "traitor," "murderer," and "Nazi" for signing a peace agreement with the Palestinians earlier that year.

"We got to his car, and we'll get to him, too,"  - Itamar Ben Gvir, when talking of Yitzhak Rabin, before his assassination.

Arafat had taken a lot of flak for remaining vague on his full commitment to peace toward Israel for fear of assassination by his own camp, and this was erected has a definitive proof that Palestinians rejected peace.  I'm just wondering what the event on the Israeli side are supposed to prove?  That Israelis are peace lovers, victims of warmongering Palestinians? Genocidals beasts that won't rest until all Palestinians are dead?  Or more like everywhere else in the world (shocker), there could be a more nuance view of both societies?



If you want to read more about polls on both sides of the fence:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-state_solution

[Sheilbh]

Yeah I think in both Israel and Palestine support for a two state solution peaked in the 90s/early 00s and has since fallen to new lows in recent years. I think it's an incredibly sad example of the political possibilities, from the leaders, narrowing the horizons of their people. It's really sad.