Israel-Hamas War 2023

[Razgovory]

it's hard to imagine the Palestinians ever forgiving the Israelis.

given what the plo and hamas have been teaching palestinian children for decades on end this was probably never in the cards, same for the lesser but also valuable 'merely co-existing in peace'.

Like all those kids growing up in eastern Europe learning how terrible and evil the US and broader West were?

As things were before this there was absolutely decent hope.
Israel going full mask off and making it so brutally personal for every single Palestinian....
Never say never. I really hope we don't get a genocide and something can be worked out. But things are looking very grim.

More like those kids in the Hitler Youth.

[Zoupa]

Yeah, I mentioned that when this started

Israel isn't going to destroy Hamas.  Hamas will live on in the hearts of every child that believe Jews are descended from pigs and apes.

A huge chunk of Israelis don't view Palestinians as human. Latest Haaretz poll has an 82 % support for ethnic cleansing of Gaza.

Your bffs are just as bad.

Not quite.  They aren't saying kill all of them, as the Palestinians do.  Really the have descended the level of Americans and Europeans.

You're right. Only 47% of Israelis are saying "kill them all".

"And when asked directly whether they agreed with the position that the IDF, "when conquering an enemy city, should act in a manner similar to the way the Israelites acted when they conquered Jericho under the leadership of Joshua, namely, to kill all its inhabitants?" nearly half, 47 percent, agreed."

I guess with that kind of public support, one can understand why the IDF operates the way it does.

[Zoupa]

Here's the source, btw:

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2025-06-03/ty-article/.premium/a-grim-poll-shows-most-jewish-israelis-support-expelling-gazans-its-brutal-and-true/00000197-3640-d9f1-abb7-7e742b300000

[Zoupa]

Dammit, paywall.

In 2014, when Jewish Israelis kidnapped and immolated Mohammed Abu Khdeir, a Palestinian teenager from East Jerusalem, many Israelis were shocked and ashamed. The next year, Jewish Israelis torched a home in the Palestinian village of Duma, burning a father, mother and baby to death in their sleep; a surviving child was horribly burned. By then, few were surprised.


Every so often something forces Israelis to confront the terrible things their society has done. This can happen anywhere. The Israeli historian Elazar Barkan wrote a whole comparative study about how countries acknowledge their historic guilt. But it's ironic that in the midst of the most brutal action Israel has ever perpetrated, it was a public opinion survey that sparked such a reckoning.


The survey conducted by Professor Tamir Sorek of Pennsylvania State University, published here in Haaretz together with Professor Shay Hazkani, examined what the authors called "eliminatory" attitudes among Jewish Israelis and their theological roots.


Within days I began receiving anguished inquiries about the results. Friends, colleagues, peace activists, journalists and strangers wrote in from Australia to Uruguay to down the block, asking if it could possibly be true that 82 percent of Israeli Jews support "the transfer (expulsion) of residents of the Gaza Strip to other countries?" No less than 54 percent of Jewish respondents were "very" supportive.


Other findings were grim: A majority of 56 percent of Jews supported the "transfer (forced expulsion) of Arab citizens of Israel to other countries." And when asked directly whether they agreed with the position that the IDF, "when conquering an enemy city, should act in a manner similar to the way the Israelites acted when they conquered Jericho under the leadership of Joshua, namely, to kill all its inhabitants?" nearly half, 47 percent, agreed.


The survey found a strong correlation between various indicators of religious identity and observance, and militant attitudes – a classic pattern in Israeli Jewish public opinion. But there was strikingly high support from secular Israelis for the expulsion questions too.


People wrote in asking whether the survey's methodology was credible, or whether the findings sounded remotely reasonable, in my long experience testing conflict-related attitudes. The blunt answer is yes and yes. But the survey does raise questions about the contribution of polls like these to the quality of our public debate – and that's a hard one to answer.


Methodology: no refuge
To assess the poll's credibility, I contacted Sorek, whom I've never met. He generously shared all the raw data, showing the sample distribution, full questions and all responses, and patiently answered all my questions about his methodological decisions regarding the sample design and analysis.


Having seen the numbers, it's just as faithful a representation of Israeli Jewish society as most other public surveys from media and think tanks, with a relatively large sample of over 1,000 respondents and standard "weighting" methodology to ensure that the critical demographics, like age and levels of religious observance, match what we know about Jewish Israelis from the Central Bureau of Statistics, along with relatively close representation of political groups based on how people reported voting in the last elections. The data was collected by Geocartography, a veteran polling agency whose reputation depends on providing quality data; the weighting process helps correct for groups that are regularly under-represented in internet samples (groups that often lean right-wing, like the ultra-Orthodox).


But even if you make somewhat different sampling or weighting choices, generating small shifts, say five or even ten points, in the data – a finding of 82 percent support for expulsion is so decisive that the big insight remains.


No sample can claim perfection, but there is nothing strikingly wrong here, and the findings can't be dismissed on technical grounds.


Context and comparison
Are the findings really such an anomaly? What do other surveys tell us? Ron Gerlitz, the Executive Director of aChord, an institute affiliated with Hebrew University of Jerusalem which has conducted regular tracking surveys both before and after the war, wrote a public response in a Facebook post showing that aChord's findings and several other surveys found lower rates of support on questions testing similar themes of expelling Palestinians from Gaza.


But he too noted that a majority of Jewish Israelis agreed with aChord's related question about the Trump plan for Gaza, involving "forced emigration, transfer or expulsion by force." Gerlitz pointed out that 60 percent who agreed was far lower than Sorek's 82 percent; but this is in large part because aChord offered a "neutral" option, and 26 percent of Jews took it. By contrast, Sorek used what is known as a "forced choice," meaning there was no neutral option, and people had to make a choice.


Forcing a choice is a legitimate method for getting at people's inclinations, even if some respondents aren't sure. Those uncertain respondents could have drifted to the opposition side if they'd wanted to; instead, it looks like most of aChord's "neutral" respondents gravitated to the "support" side in Sorek's study (though, of course, these aren't the same respondents).


Other studies showed similar overall trends. In a poll for Channel 13 in early February, almost immediately after U.S. President Donald Trump announced his plan for Gaza, 72 percent of Israelis supported the plan "to exile Palestinians" – the wording used in the announcer's description of the poll. That's a national average; among Jews, it would be close to Sorek's 82 percent (since very low support from Arab citizens on all related questions drives down the total average). A Channel 12 survey found 69 percent supported the plan, with similar wording about removing Gazans. Once again, although not published, the Jewish portion of those samples would likely have been around the 80 percent mark.


The Peace Index survey from Tel Aviv University from March found that 62 percent of Israeli Jews supported "evacuating Palestinians from Gaza, even by force and military means." Nine percent of Jewish respondents said "don't know," but 70 percent of Jews said that if Gazans leave, Israel should not allow their return at all.


Going further back to 2016, Pew Research, one of the world's most prestigious polling institutes, asked whether Israeli Jews agree or disagree that "Arabs should be expelled or transferred from Israel." Nearly half, 48 percent, agreed and the poll made headlines at the time. As noted, a similar question in Sorek's current study found 56 percent support among Jews – an eight-point rise. Given the spirit of anti-Arab incitement in Israel over the last nine years and the war itself, such a rise makes sense and boosts the contextual credibility of Sorek's poll.


And remember that by contrast to Arab citizens in Israel, Israelis have come to view Palestinians in Gaza as synonymous with Hamas, Hamas as synonymous with October 7, and both of them synonymous with Nazis.


Finally, it's worth noting some greater nuance than the big headline in Sorek's own survey. For example, when asked how the IDF should behave in cities that it conquers, only a minority (18 percent) said there should be "no moral constraints," and a majority of 55 percent said the IDF should act according to the two most moderate opinions offered: Nearly 30 percent said the IDF should make every effort to protect civilians, and another 26 percent said that civilian harm should be kept to the minimum needed to ensure security. The remainder, about 25 percent, said Israel should use "a tough hand" to ensure security in those situations.


On the worst question of all – "Do you support or oppose the claim that the IDF, when conquering an enemy city, should act similarly to the sons of Israel when they conquered Jericho, by killing all the residents?" – the data cited in Haaretz shows that an unconscionable majority of observant Jews support it. And to my mind, any is too many – but the total of 47 percent shows that supporters, still represent a minority. Again, it's far too many to be complacent.


First, do no harm
The grave findings prompt the question of whether releasing such findings into an atmosphere already filled with toxic warmongering is helpful or damaging. A responsible public opinion researcher should question whether data can catalyze constructive change, or if it just fans flames.


Both are possible. Salacious data findings that have little public relevance and don't reflect serious policy options can be more damaging (or self-serving, for headlines) than helpful.


But that's not the case here. Hardly a day goes by without an Israeli official advocating openly, forcefully and hatefully to expel Palestinians from Gaza. Linguistic hogwash such as "emigration by choice" is pointless; we all know what they mean, and public support for policies is often positively correlated with people's belief that such plans are likely or possible.


The poll is a messenger, not a provocateur; the findings are an emergency wake-up call that things can still get much worse. A population subject to years of anti-Palestinian incitement felt that Hamas' attack on October 7 proved the worst and justifies everything Israel has done since – another over-80 percent finding among Jews in the joint Israeli-Palestinian survey from July 2024, mirrored on the Palestinian side.


Rapacious, corrupt leaders capitalized on Israeli suffering instead of seeking to contain the rage. It was this kind of leadership-driven extremist nationalist fervor stoking existing nationalist racism within the Serbian public during the breakup of Yugoslavia that degenerated into genocidal acts against Bosnian Muslims.


But when wars end, when criminal leaders are jettisoned from power, new leaders can drive change. The worst regimes and the worst wars in recent history – be grateful that I'm not naming names – have transformed into some of the most peaceful, thriving, cooperative and productive countries in the world.


The time for leadership by brave people of vision and values is now. The candidates displaying such qualities are pitifully few.

[Syt]

Eh, genocide isn't all that bad in context. Germany shows that as a country you can come back from that.


(Note: I hope it is obvious that this is a satirical comment!)

[Josquius]

Eh, genocide isn't all that bad in context. Germany shows that as a country you can come back from that.


(Note: I hope it is obvious that this is a satirical comment!)

Much of that was done in a context of "The Jews are subhuman scum! But look how nice we are. We've made lovely little camps for them to live happily and be useful. Look at how much fun there having in this film! Ignore the smell. That's just.... Err... No smell here. No no."
With the current Israeli shit... It's all there out in the open.

[garbon]

Here's the source, btw:

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2025-06-03/ty-article/.premium/a-grim-poll-shows-most-jewish-israelis-support-expelling-gazans-its-brutal-and-true/00000197-3640-d9f1-abb7-7e742b300000

This section below struck me as odd.

Methodology: no refuge
To assess the poll's credibility, I contacted Sorek, whom I've never met. He generously shared all the raw data, showing the sample distribution, full questions and all responses, and patiently answered all my questions about his methodological decisions regarding the sample design and analysis.

This is kind of expected of expected of good research as in it what have been suspect had he refused to share anything rather than he was 'generous' for being willing to do so.  But why wasn't any of this made publicly available? I see the first time the 82% stat was shown was by an article written by Professor Tamir Sorek himself in May.
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2025-05-28/ty-article-magazine/.premium/yes-to-transfer-82-of-jewish-israelis-back-expelling-gazans/00000197-12a4-df22-a9d7-9ef6af930000
That doesn't really provide much more detail on how the survey was conducted or any information we can free look at bar his conclusions.  I guess there is this new graph:

Having seen the numbers, it's just as faithful a representation of Israeli Jewish society as most other public surveys from media and think tanks, with a relatively large sample of over 1,000 respondents and standard "weighting" methodology to ensure that the critical demographics, like age and levels of religious observance, match what we know about Jewish Israelis from the Central Bureau of Statistics, along with relatively close representation of political groups based on how people reported voting in the last elections.

Tell not show?

The data was collected by Geocartography, a veteran polling agency whose reputation depends on providing quality data; the weighting process helps correct for groups that are regularly under-represented in internet samples (groups that often lean right-wing, like the ultra-Orthodox).

That's also unusual. We are supposed to believe this data because our writer, Dahlia Scheindlin, says well of course their results are credible, they would lose their reputation otherwise.

But even if you make somewhat different sampling or weighting choices, generating small shifts, say five or even ten points, in the data – a finding of 82 percent support for expulsion is so decisive that the big insight remains.

No sample can claim perfection, but there is nothing strikingly wrong here, and the findings can't be dismissed on technical grounds.

I don't think we have enough information to draw that conclusion, Dahlia. We don't have enough information to be able to asses this on technical grounds.

Also odd is that in the link I posted above there is this paragraph

According to the results, 82 percent of respondents supported the expulsion of Gaza's residents, while 56 percent favored expelling Palestinian citizens of Israel. These figures mark a sharp rise from a 2003 survey, in which support for such expulsions stood at 45 percent and 31 percent, respectively.

The part in bold was a hyperlink that linked to a piece published in Haaretz a day after your piece, Zoupa, which takes issue with the survey conducted.
https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2025-06-04/ty-article-opinion/.premium/do-82-of-israelis-really-back-expulsion-of-gazans-the-data-tells-a-different-story/00000197-39da-da41-a9f7-3dde468d0000

A recent poll among Israeli Jews, as reported in Haaretz, produced truly shocking results: 82 percent of respondents reportedly supported the forcible expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza, while 56 percent supported expelling Palestinian citizens of Israel. The poll suggests an extreme reality and has garnered significant attention.
We, too, were alarmed by these findings, for an additional reason: we believe they are wrong.
At around the same time this poll was conducted, Tel Aviv University fielded a comprehensive, large-scale survey as part of its ongoing Israel National Election Studies research project. In that study, participants were asked whether they would support a solution for Gaza that includes transferring its population to another country or countries. Among Jewish respondents, agreement stood at 53 percent, and among the entire Israeli population – including Arab citizens – it was 45 percent.
In other words, while support for population transfer is indeed appallingly high, it is far from a public consensus.
How, then, did the Haaretz-reported survey yield an expulsion support figure that was nearly 30 percent higher than that found in the Tel Aviv University study? The first explanation lies in the sample itself. An analysis of the raw data (which the poll's authors shared with us in full transparency) revealed several sampling issues that largely account for the inflated support levels.
One issue was the overrepresentation of certain right-wing demographics, such as young people and Likud voters, beyond their actual proportion in the general population. Another issue was the inclusion of "suspicious" respondents who provided implausible, ideology-incongruent responses. For instance, 30 percent of survey respondents identifying as voters of the left-leaning Labor Party expressed support for murdering the entire population of any cities the army might occupy.
Another factor contributing to the skewed results was question wording. Respondents were not allowed to answer "Don't know" or "I'm not sure." Forcing participants to choose a side often leads them to take a position even when they don't genuinely have one.
By contrast, a survey conducted in February by the aChord Center also asked Jewish respondents about their views on the forcible expulsion of Gaza residents. In that study, about a quarter of respondents expressed no opinion. A lack of opinion is itself a meaningful opinion, and masking it artificially inflates active support.
Beyond these technical considerations, we believe the survey's choice of questions failed to capture the deep complexity and confusion currently shaping Israeli public opinion regarding the future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
When viewed through a broader lens, many Israelis indeed harbor deep resentment toward Palestinians – resentment often accompanied by skepticism and dehumanization. These sentiments have intensified significantly since October 7, 2023. At the same time, however, there has been no rightward convergence regarding possible solutions to the conflict. In fact, no single plan currently enjoys majority support among the Israeli public. According to Tel Aviv University's study, 37 percent of Israelis support a two-state solution, while 34 percent favor a single state without equal rights for Palestinians.
The study also offered a range of policy options for Gaza beyond expulsion. Notably, 44 percent of respondents supported transferring control of Gaza to international actors or foreign governments – a figure roughly equal to those favoring expulsion. In contrast, only 15 percent supported rebuilding Israeli settlements in Gaza.
Even within the 45 percent who expressed support for expulsion of Gazans, the picture was more complex than it might seem. About half of these respondents also supported placing Gaza under foreign control, and only a quarter supported reestablishing settlements.
Either way, there's no denying that these findings are alarming. But do they reflect deeply held beliefs or are they a response to current events? Demonization of the enemy, support for indiscriminate killing and population expulsion are unfortunately characteristic of ethno-national conflicts like ours, especially during periods of active fighting. Fear and the erosion of hope fuel such attitudes.
And according to the Tel Aviv University study, fear does dominate Israelis' thinking: it finds that two-thirds of Israelis believe the Palestinians ultimately seek to conquer Israel and destroy a significant portion of the Jewish population. This fear should be factored into interpretations of current trends, and we should be cautious in assuming they would remain the same when the fighting stops.
Equally crucial is the fact that support for different kinds of solutions is shaped by the range of political options our leaders offer us. When members of Netanyahu's government promote extremist "solutions" such as population expulsion – actions that constitute war crimes – without encountering strong opposition from political rivals, and when the president of the world's most powerful nation legitimizes such ideas in his own voice, they gain dangerous normative traction. When Israeli opposition leaders fail to present a clear, alternative vision, they leave the field wide open for radical ideas to take root.
In other words, public opinion responds to the changing boundaries of public discourse. And history shows that opinion can move in the opposite direction as well. In the 1980s and early 1990s, two-thirds of Israelis supported encouraging Arabs to emigrate from Israel. Within the span of just a few years, following the Oslo Accords in 1993 and the creation of the Palestinian Authority, support for annexing the West Bank and Gaza and expelling their populations stood at only 11 percent. Likewise, support for a Palestinian state, which stood at below 10 percent in the 1980s, soon became the preferred solution for half the Israelis.
The bottom line is that current support for population transfer – and even for atrocities like annihilation – is considerably lower than the figures reported in the Haaretz poll suggest. That nearly half the Israeli public supports expelling Palestinians from Gaza is appalling and a horrifying finding on its own. However, the data indicate that this support is not necessarily rooted in firm ideological conviction.
Moreover, it is doubtful that such views reflect the influence of figures like Rabbi Yitzchak Ginsburgh, whom the Haaretz article identified as a key source of these ideas. There is no convincing evidence that his barbaric teachings have gained meaningful traction among most Israelis.
In reality, support for expulsion exists alongside openness to other potential solutions, and its persistence will depend on the political climate and changing legitimacy space in Israeli public discourse.
We believe there is real potential to build broad-based support among Israelis for humane, sustainable solutions to both the wider Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the present war. But to make this happen, we need political leaders and public figures who will fight for these ideas with courage, determination, and a clear alternative vision for what comes after the war.

Now I'm still left unable to assess anything in the data but strikes me as curious that the posting of survey results, support and criticism of results were all posted in just this one newspaper source. All the other sites mentioning it appear to just be cribbing from the first two links.

I've looked at all this not to take a stance on what the evidence shows, as I've no access to the evidence, but to highlight that we need to be vigilant around data that just confirms our beliefs. We may still ultimately accept it but we should be doing so with a critical eye.

[Zoupa]

Well, I'm not a statistician. Since I can't really look at the data with a critical eye, I choose to trust Israel's newspaper of record.

We can also rely on Israeli public officials, including ministers, making statements supporting ethnic cleansing.

[garbon]

Well, I'm not a statistician. Since I can't really look at the data with a critical eye, I choose to trust Israel's newspaper of record.

I'm not a statistician either.

But what article, the one that feels right? Your link and my two links were all from the same newspaper on different days.

We can also rely on Israeli public officials, including ministers, making statements supporting ethnic cleansing.

What politicians say = the sentiment of the people?

[garbon]

My other thought, Zoups, is why is no one else covering this? The article about its results was published nearly 2 months ago now. And this conflict is being covered in depth by news outlets, so why not this story?

[Zoupa]

Well, I'm not a statistician. Since I can't really look at the data with a critical eye, I choose to trust Israel's newspaper of record.

I'm not a statistician either.

But what article, the one that feels right? Your link and my two links were all from the same newspaper on different days.

We can also rely on Israeli public officials, including ministers, making statements supporting ethnic cleansing.

What politicians say = the sentiment of the people?

It's just one survey, and I agree that not giving folks the "I don't know" option feels wrong. Then again, this has been going on for 80 years. Feels like not having an opinion is a cop-out.

What politicians say don't correlate 1:1 to how the people feel. What it does tell the general public is the motivation behind their decision-making.

My other thought, Zoups, is why is no one else covering this? The article about its results was published nearly 2 months ago now. And this conflict is being covered in depth by news outlets, so why not this story?

I don't know. I saw this today too. We do have some data from the Israeli side, however flawed it may be. Maybe the population surveyed was not representative, but also consider how people answer these surveys; I'm guessing the "yes, let's kill'em all" option was under-reported, if anything.

We have no (recent) data from the Palestinian side. I'm guessing the percentages would be even higher for the "kill all jews" option.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

it's hard to imagine the Palestinians ever forgiving the Israelis.

given what the plo and hamas have been teaching palestinian children for decades on end this was probably never in the cards, same for the lesser but also valuable 'merely co-existing in peace'.

Like all those kids growing up in eastern Europe learning how terrible and evil the US and broader West were?

As things were before this there was absolutely decent hope.
Israel going full mask off and making it so brutally personal for every single Palestinian....
Never say never. I really hope we don't get a genocide and something can be worked out. But things are looking very grim.

More like those kids in the Hitler Youth.

indeed, more like the hitler youth and its opinions on jews.
What the people in Eastern Europe learned about the west doesn't even come close to the evil the little palestinians learn about the jews (or many little muslims learn about non-muslims in the mosque)

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Eh, genocide isn't all that bad in context. Germany shows that as a country you can come back from that.


(Note: I hope it is obvious that this is a satirical comment!)

it's only partially satirical because it's also true. About every polity in history has at some point committed genocide. At some point you come back from that. Usually quite fast too if history is any lesson.

[garbon]

It's just one survey, and I agree that not giving folks the "I don't know" option feels wrong. Then again, this has been going on for 80 years. Feels like not having an opinion is a cop-out.

But that could also genuinely be how people feel.

What politicians say don't correlate 1:1 to how the people feel. What it does tell the general public is the motivation behind their decision-making.

Maybe I don't understand why you posted that article then as I thought it was a representation of how Israelis collectively feel about what is going on.

I don't know. I saw this today too. We do have some data from the Israeli side, however flawed it may be. Maybe the population surveyed was not representative, but also consider how people answer these surveys; I'm guessing the "yes, let's kill'em all" option was under-reported, if anything.

My hypothesis would be that other news outlets currently have the same skepticism that I'm displaying. They would likely want to understand more about how this survey was conducted to decide whether it is credible news worth passing on.

I do also wonder about who sponsored this research. The key author listed is a historian in Pennsylvannia who appears to have spent most of his career writing about how we can understand the conflict through the world of sport and other cultural representations.

On the bit in bold, I'm not sure we know how this was conducted. I agree if it was telephone polling there would certainly be some inhibition but if say it was conducted via online survey (which Geocartography Knowledge Group says they do on their website), you have a lot less interviewer/observer bias as you aren't confronted with someone to judge your opinions but have anonymity. Though you also have trade off that you need to be a lot more stringent with data cleaning as easy to end up with garbage responses.

[Tamas]

I am not looking to make excuses for Israel at this stage but let's not compare east european communist anti-US propaganda to what I have seen reported on Hamas "education" of children. Telling the US has a flawed system that exploits workers and is destined to crumble and fall doesn't really compare.


I know this will also read as I am looking to excuse Israeli conduct but at this stage the only sensible thing would be for Hamas to surrender. That may not stop the starvation but it might, and it would remove all excuse for continued shooting etc. But I bet Hamas leaders see the suffering as their best bet in getting out of this alive - they probably think world opinion will force Israel to stop. But it clearly won't.

And it does have a terrible logic from the Israeli point of view, like Josq also mentioned. How is stopping or even lifting the siege conditions a viable option for them now? No critics of theirs will go "ah well I guess they are not genocidal after all" if they do it, any rebuilding of a Gaza they retreated from would strengthen Hamas or other people hell-bent on pulling as many October 7s as they can, and they are as close to finishing off armed resistance as they are ever going to be.

I think it is logical for them at this stage to maintain the siege until the population's will breaks completely and the fighting stops. We read of historic sieges with fascination not horror, because we don't have a running live feed of all the heart-wrenching suffering people locked starving into cities endured.

As I said, one side must give up completely for this to end. In hindsight it was always coming down to suffering like this. What's happening is no different from what Hamas and other Arab actors envisioned for Israel to suffer. That does not excuse what Israel is doing but it does make it easier to see this horror as the unavoidable outcome. If one side refuses to let go of elimination of the other as the ultimate goal, what other decisive solution is there other than the elimination of one of the sides?

It's horrifically grim.