Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Grey Fox]

 Debt to whom?

[Richard Hakluyt]

England sends about £11bn a year to Scotland (£2000 for every person living there); doesn't matter if you are in a union but it will stop if they leave.

[Grey Fox]

In a normal government, yes.

[Valmy]

In a normal government, yes.

What do you mean by that?

[Tamas]

In a normal government, yes.

What do you mean by that?

If England can demand EU membership benefits without the duties, Scotland can demand independence while England continues footing their bills, I guess.

[crazy canuck]

EEA is not going to happen. The tories are more concerned with their byzantine plots and powerplays than good governance.

I'm 90% sure of a no-deal Brexit at this point. I'm one of the 6 ppl who voted "Other European - Leave" in the original poll of this thread so I'm quite fine with it. I've despised the UK's european attitude ever since Thatcher's "I want my money back", so fuck them.

What was the result of the Scottish referendum, 40-45% voted for independence? Give it 5 years of no-deal Brexit and the next one will be 55-60% voting for independence.

You reap what you sow, stupid rosbiffs.

Yeah, and watch the economies of Ireland and Scotland grow as the economy of England sinks into the depression of a state without trading partners.

England sends about £11bn a year to Scotland (£2000 for every person living there); doesn't matter if you are in a union but it will stop if they leave.

A small amount given the cost of staying tied to a failing UK economy.

[Gups]

Two thirds of Scottish exports are to england

[crazy canuck]

Two thirds of Scottish exports are to england

Sure, for now and while England is in the EU; London is a financial centre; and the Pound is worth something.

Those are not immutable conditions.

[Barrister]

Two thirds of Scottish exports are to england

Sure, for now and while England is in the EU; London is a financial centre; and the Pound is worth something.

Those are not immutable conditions.

It's much like Canada-US.  We can try to diversify our trade all we want, but simple geography dictates who our #1 trading partner is going to be.

[crazy canuck]

Two thirds of Scottish exports are to england

Sure, for now and while England is in the EU; London is a financial centre; and the Pound is worth something.

Those are not immutable conditions.

It's much like Canada-US.  We can try to diversify our trade all we want, but simple geography dictates who our #1 trading partner is going to be.

I think you are missing the point.  The UK is not a market like the US.  The demand for Scottish products will likely diminish as the economy of England crumbles.

[celedhring]

England's economy won't crumble. It will be needlessly hurt by leaving, but it's not going to turn into an autarchic wasteland.

[HisMajestyBOB]

England's economy won't crumble. It will be needlessly hurt by leaving, but it's not going to turn into an autarchic wasteland.

Give the Tories time, they'll get there.

[crazy canuck]

England's economy won't crumble. It will be needlessly hurt by leaving, but it's not going to turn into an autarchic wasteland.

What percentage of England's economy is related to the London's status as a world financial centre?  I am not sure what the answer is but I would hazard a guess that it is substantial.  What will happen to that driver of the economy after Brexit?  Again, that is not entirely clear but certainly there will be some decline.  If a substantial driver of England's economy declines, what are the knock on effects?  Not entirely sure but it is not to the upside.

Why would Scotland keep itself tied to this mess?  Only if the benefits of maintaining the union outweigh the benefits of becoming a member of the EU.  Besides, to the extent England still demands Scottish goods, that demand will not end if Scotland is in the EU - although the demand will suffer to some extent because of English Tariffs.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I do believe that the union will end at some point, possibly quite soon. It has lost its purpose. But that doesn't alter the fact that the newly independent Scotland will have a budget deficit of 8% or so of GDP and will have to endure brutal austerity in its early years.

Also, as Adam Smith remarked, there is a "great deal of ruin in a nation". After brexit the UK will still have its populace and infrastructure and traditions. After a painful recession I expect growth to resume. Unless we do an Argentina of course, but that would require an entire century of political stupidity.

[Syt]