Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Agelastus]

Hoping is the right word.
Though it is a hope based on logic and analysis.
The common silly dismissal you see of a party following an anti brexit policy is that leave won in most seats by a small majority whilst leave votes tended to stack in a few places.

I think the second "leave" should have been "remain" here.

However, it is important to remember the AV referendum and the reason the lib Dems were do keen on it. The British system is broken, parties typically win seats with less than half the electorate voting for them. This has really historically been massively to the detriment of the lib Dems.

Less broken than that of Italy and Greece though, which are really ridiculously undemocratic in their pursuit of "stable/strong government", something we've rarely had a problem with here.

And the most disadvantaged party under our current system appears to be UKIP at the moment, something I'd have thought you'd applaud.

So if you've the tories, labour and maybe ukip promising brexit, then you've the lib Dems promising the opposite.... then even in some places that went leave if the lib Dems can play it right and get enough remain voters to come out and vote for them I can see them winning a lot of seats.

I think they need to be running higher in the national polls for that to be a genuine possibility.

Moreover, given how the vote fell in the south-west (the area that before the last election the Liberals had spent two decades trying to turn into a stronghold) I don't think the boost they gain from being the "party of remain" is likely to be in the right seats.

How do you think a three way split between the Liberals (hoovering up remain voters), UKIP (hoovering up Brexit voters) and Labour (retaining their hard core of support) would go in the north?

I suspect badly for all three.

I doubt it will be as big a boost for them as the SNP enjoyed post indy ref, but it might gain them a fair number of seats. Perhaps even enough to stop the tories forming a majority. Which is a bright light in these days of labour turning on the people and the far right on the march.

The "Indyref", despite being a defeat, served somehow to anoint the SNP as the "party of the Scots"; I doubt the Liberal Democrats can get themselves anointed as the "party of Remain" in the same way given the large number of Tory and Labour "remainers".

And I wish you'd stop harping on about the non-existent "march of the far right" in the UK. If anything, UKIP's killed the actual far right. They are a small minority safely contained within a much larger coalition, effectively powerless.

Although I will admit that Nuttall makes me think of a thug when I see him, though.

[mongers]

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Tyr and Mongers in hysterics (expected, but getting repetitive.)

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Examples please, or STFU. 

[CountDeMoney]

Mongers hasn't been hysterical since 2003.

[Zanza]

My prediction for the next years:
As there still seems to be a massive cognitive dissonance between what is politically feasible between the Brexit ministers (Fox, Davis, Johnson etc.) and the EU representatives I expect that negotiations will break down fairly fast or muddle along without result.

There will be much bitterness on both sides as is common in a divorce as neither understands the motivations and grievances of the other side fully. Especially on the UK side, it will look as if the Europeans want to punish Britain as they'll not move on their main red lines, namely the indivisibility of the four freedoms and "no cherry-picking" (i.e no partial customs union as was recently suggested by the British side).

This bitterness between the two sides will mean that Britain does a hard Brexit with going back to WTO rules and both sides lose massively. Britain will then be isolated and will also not want to engage with its former European partners anymore and turn to the other English-speaking countries. The Empire is gone though and all the former dominions have re-oriented themselves. Despite close cultural ties, the economic ties are just not there and due to "trade gravity", Britain will never be as important as China to Australia or New Zealand and never be as important as the US to Canada. It will play second fiddle.

Meanwhile the Europeans have not solved any of their internal problems, be it the monetary union, high structural unemployment or the trade imbalances between the "northern core" and the "southern periphery" of the EU. Immigration, especially from Africa and the Middle East will not have abated either unless drastic measures are taken that may not be in line with European values.

[Agelastus]

.....

Tyr and Mongers in hysterics (expected, but getting repetitive.)

.....

Examples please, or STFU. 

One man's hysteria is another man's calm reason.

But, honestly, there's been something in the general tone of your post Referendum posts that has struck me that way; since I only know you via the internet and not personally that may indeed be an entirely false attribution based on reading too much into your words.

[mongers]

.....

Tyr and Mongers in hysterics (expected, but getting repetitive.)

.....

Examples please, or STFU. 

One man's hysteria is another man's calm reason.

But, honestly, there's been something in the general tone of your post Referendum posts that has struck me that way; since I only know you via the internet and not personally that may indeed be an entirely false attribution based on reading too much into your words.

So a retraction is in order.

[Tamas]

Agelastus, I am not really worried about the rights of EU citizens already in the UK. Booting them out would be an extremely dick move that would send shockwaves in society and the economy. Things would have to deteriorate to unimaginable levels for that to happen. It's just that despite believing that, I can't feel COMPLETELY at ease, considering I am part of that demographic that has been demoted to  one of the bargaining chips in a card game that seems to be breaking down even before starting.

I am sharing Zanza's bleak outlook otherwise. Apart from Brits will be feeling like that, I think there will be serious voices behind closed doors in the EU to make Brexit painful for the UK - there are good arguments from the EU's point of view to make an example out of the UK and its fate post-EU.

Plus, expecting cross-EU negotiations to not be about local interests and petty bickering as showmanship to domestic voters is just unrealistic.

And on this side of the channel, I am really worried that the government has not yet started speaking realistically about what can be achieved. I am guessing they are doing this to buy themselves time on the short run, avoiding public pressure if they say they will not only eat the cake but keep it as well.

However, this is going to hit back very badly on the long run. By keeping totally fairytale scenarios in public discourse (most notably, having single market access and curbing migration), whatever deal they end up striking will feel as falling short of possibilities, and I suspect not only UKIP, but the radical wing of the Tories will also try to mount the Leavers anger to try and coup May.

[garbon]

All in all a not very exciting view, really.

Thanks for that. Interesting read.

It does all make me wonder though, why are you still tentatively in favor? Is it just that you're expecting at some point down the road (10 years, 20 years?) that it'll be a boon?

[Zanza]

And on this side of the channel, I am really worried that the government has not yet started speaking realistically about what can be achieved. I am guessing they are doing this to buy themselves time on the short run, avoiding public pressure if they say they will not only eat the cake but keep it as well.

However, this is going to hit back very badly on the long run. By keeping totally fairytale scenarios in public discourse (most notably, having single market access and curbing migration), whatever deal they end up striking will feel as falling short of possibilities, and I suspect not only UKIP, but the radical wing of the Tories will also try to mount the Leavers anger to try and coup May.

I wonder if they just deceive or if they delude themselves when pretending some of the more fantastical options might be available in negotiations.

As Tusk said, it will be hard Brexit or no Brexit. The various soft options don't really exist.

Add to that the EU demand that the UK fulfills it's obligations to the tune of a two digit billion Euro amount (60bn?) and I can see negotiations going nowhere fast.

The "cliff edge" Brexit of mid 2019 can be timed to hit at the tenth anniversary of the last major financial crisis.

[Zanza]

A lot of silly points in a Guardian article I just read, but two that I found interesting and especially the last one quite likely to happen...

You can't just copy and paste EU law
Ministers want to transfer all EU laws into Britain using the so-called great reform bill. The trouble is, they don't know where to find them. The Equalities Act, for instance, is a messy mixture of EU and UK legislation. In every area of law, there are bits and pieces of EU directives. Good luck tracking them all down.

Britain may be about to adopt lower US standards on ... everything
The Americans have lower consumer standards than Europe on pretty much everything, from chemical safety to data protection. A bilateral trade deal will see them demand we lower our standards so their products can enter our market more freely. Given how desperate we'll be, we're likely to comply.

[Syt]

A lot of silly points in a Guardian article I just read, but two that I found interesting and especially the last one quite likely to happen...

You can't just copy and paste EU law
Ministers want to transfer all EU laws into Britain using the so-called great reform bill. The trouble is, they don't know where to find them. The Equalities Act, for instance, is a messy mixture of EU and UK legislation. In every area of law, there are bits and pieces of EU directives. Good luck tracking them all down.

Britain may be about to adopt lower US standards on ... everything
The Americans have lower consumer standards than Europe on pretty much everything, from chemical safety to data protection. A bilateral trade deal will see them demand we lower our standards so their products can enter our market more freely. Given how desperate we'll be, we're likely to comply.

Britain will be the New New Jersey. Old Jersey? Old New Jersey?

[garbon]

As Tusk said, it will be hard Brexit or no Brexit. The various soft options don't really exist.

I guess because both sides (and their constituents) are too stubborn to allow them to exist?

[Zanza]

Britain will be the New New Jersey. Old Jersey? Old New Jersey?

[garbon]

Britain will be the New New Jersey. Old Jersey? Old New Jersey?

As much as I rag on it, there are definitely much worse places to be than NJ. Even if you restrict to just looking at the Western world.

[Zanza]

As Tusk said, it will be hard Brexit or no Brexit. The various soft options don't really exist.

I guess because both sides (and their constituents) are too stubborn to allow them to exist?

I posted an article like three weeks ago with good analysis in my opinion. Here is the quintessence, i.e. evaluating all scenarios on their achievement of objectives:


Full article: https://www.sussex.ac.uk/webteam/gateway/file.php?name=uktpo-briefing-paper-5.pdf&site=18