Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Zanza]

The Prime Minister says that they want to have the lowest corporate taxes in the G20.

The Chancellor announces that there is a new Brexit-caused 100 bn GBP hole in the budget in the next five years.

Both of these at a time when the GBP is at historical lows and it is unclear whether foreigners are still as willing to finance Britain's current account deficit.

The Brexiteers will wreck British government finances...

[celedhring]

The cheek of it all 

UKIP faces UK probe into EU funding allegations

The Electoral Commission has opened an investigation into UKIP's finances after allegations it misspent EU funds.
A European Parliament probe alleged on Monday that funds for the group of MEPs that UKIP belongs to had wrongly been spent "for the benefit of UKIP".
It said the group should repay £146,696 of the funds intended for European Parliament business.
The Electoral Commission is now looking into "whether there has been any breach of UK election law".
In response to the news a UKIP spokesman said: "We are confident we will be found to be in the clear."
The European Parliament investigation claims that the UKIP-dominated grouping - the Alliance for Direct Democracy in Europe - broke rules banning the use of the funds on "financing of national political parties, financing of national election campaigns and candidates or referendum campaigns".
In a statement the European Parliament Bureau said: "The activities of the ADDE which were found to breach the rules for European party financing, were nine opinion polls held in the UK ahead of the 2015 general elections as well as ahead of the EU referendum in 2016, and a report on these polls.
"The expenditure linked to the services of three consultants was considered non-eligible by an external auditor and by the Parliament's administration."
When the European Parliament allegations first emerged last week, a spokesman for the ADDE group accused the parliament of "harassment", with UKIP MEP Roger Helmer adding: "Call it revenge for Brexit if you like."
BBC assistant political editor Norman Smith said it was understood the Electoral Commission inquiry related to whether UKIP spent some of the European money on the Brexit referendum.
UKIP would face a possible fine up to £20,000 if it was judged to have accepted "impermissible donations".

[Josquius]

Yep. UKIP truly are hypocritical scum.

[celedhring]

Yep. UKIP truly are hypocritical scum.

"We were right all along, Brussels is a corrupt hellhole, we're the living proof!"

[Tamas]

The apparent level of wishful thinking and refusal to face reality in the British press is really rising to ridiculous proportions.

This morning the main BBC online article is the bolded revelation from the PM of Malta that "yes, we do mean it: if you want the single market you have to have freedom of movement".

It's like, the only thing has been clearly said by the whole EU since before the referendum, and Brits are still like "hmm, but do they REALLY mean it, I wonder? Surely not!"

[Josquius]

The telegraph (or express? One of them) I noticed was reporting this with EUROPE TO BLOCK BRITAIN LEAVING outrage.

[Zanza]

Also from the Telegraph to demonstrate their wishful thinking... 

Germany needs post-Brexit EU trade deal with Britain to minimise own economy fallout, minister warns

Aha, the German government is moving!

Ilse Aigner, the Bavarian economy minister, said that [...]

Ooops, it's just a regional flunky with zero influence on foreign policy.

Britain is hoping that Germany will help to temper demands from France that Britain must "pay a price" for its decision to leave the EU.

Ministers were encouraged last week after Angela Merkel suggested that she was willing to compromise on free movement in the wake of Brexit.

In comments seen as a significant shift, the German Chancellor suggested that the European Union needs to "discuss further" the rules around freedom of movement.

Discussing the rules around freedom of movement is not the same as discussing freedom of movement. Merkel only said that she might consider some kind of rules on when welfare payments are available for people moving to other EU countries.

[Zanza]

What is Article 127 – and why could it be central to Brexit?

Theresa May has claimed that the Government's plans for Brexit are "on track".

But, after a legal challenge over whether MPs should be given a vote on when Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon is triggered, she now faces the possibility of a second legal challenge – this time involving Article 127 of the European Economic Area (EEA) Agreement.

What is Article 127? How is it different to Article 50?

Triggering Article 50 (of the Treaty of Lisbon) gives any EU member the right to quit, and outlines the procedure for doing so.

Article 127 of the EEA Agreement is the process by which a country could leave the EEA.

Senior lawyers have said they believe Article 50 does not provide for leaving the EEA, which extends the single market's tariff-free trade in goods to countries like Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein.

The single market is a trade agreement that allows different countries within the EU to trade across borders as easily as they can within their own country, with no extra tariffs or negotiations.

However, the Government has said that as the UK is party to the EEA Agreement only in its capacity as a member of the EU, which would mean that once we leave the EU, the UK would automatically cease to be a member of the EEA.

Awesome. So will they trigger Article 50 and Article 127? I wonder how many other separate treaties feature the UK and the EEC both as contracting parties. Their whole argument for WTO membership is after all that the UK is member on its own and not just by virtue of its membership in the EU.

[Richard Hakluyt]

There is a roughly 50-50 split in the electorate, but among the people who count it is more like 80-20. One can get 5-2 odds on article 50 not being invoked by July 2017.

[Josquius]

I'm pessimistic.
Too many politicians worried about their jobs and playing "teh will of teh people" angle. Particularly bad is that labour seem set to turn against their voters.
Hopefully we will be able to save things before we leave and the economy collapses but in march they are going to vote for the article

[Tamas]

I'm pessimistic.
Too many politicians worried about their jobs and playing "teh will of teh people" angle. Particularly bad is that labour seem set to turn against their voters.
Hopefully we will be able to save things before we leave and the economy collapses but in march they are going to vote for the article

There is no good way out of this. If the UK actually leaves there is going to be years of uncertainty, and economic stagnation IF the leaders will be on top of their job, and super talented at managing all the mess. If not, I foresee a proper recession (and then hopefully a recovery, but I fail to see how it would reach the levels the UK is leaving behind - there is no Empire anymore and the shit you sell to the EU you can't sell to the ROTW - nobody has the same purchasing power).

If they cancel the whole thing, Farage and his ilk will take their people to the street and there will be proper rioting, and the disintegration of the Tory party, with Boris or Farage rising out of the ashes as PM, and THEN the UK would leave anyways.

[Josquius]

The window of opportunity I see is in this new article allowing us to conveniently shift into a norway like relationship.
Only a percent or two lost from the economy and life can broadly go on.
UKIP whinge the people voted to end immigration.... we point out they didn't, they just voted to leave the eu.
If there's another ref on leaving the eec this time enough people should be wise enough not to vote leave, plus one has to hope enough of the liberal leavers were genuine in their talk of the norwegian / swiss option and not just playing a game of bait and switch.

[Tamas]

The window of opportunity I see is in this new article allowing us to conveniently shift into a norway like relationship.
Only a percent or two lost from the economy and life can broadly go on.
UKIP whinge the people voted to end immigration.... we point out they didn't, they just voted to leave the eu.
If there's another ref on leaving the eec this time enough people should be wise enough not to vote leave, plus one has to hope enough of the liberal leavers were genuine in their talk of the norwegian / swiss option and not just playing a game of bait and switch.

If there is no cut to immigration there will be political upheaval. It might be manageable but I don't think May will take the risk.

[Syt]

The News: We're in The Twilight Zone
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kx-3I6Uzm-c

[Syt]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/23/the-shambassadors-reception-tycoons-are-spoiling-nigel-farage

The shambassador's reception: tycoons are spoiling Nigel Farage

Ukip figurehead feted with pyramids of Ferrero Rocher at the Ritz after political year he could describe as eccellente

He has had, by any measure, a barnstorming year. And on Wednesday night, guests arriving at a party thrown in Nigel Farage's honour at the Ritz were greeted by pyramids of Ferrero Rocher chocolates in a joking reference to Donald Trump's eyebrow-raising proposal that the Ukip leader should become Britain's ambassador to the US.

Farage's allies, including the Barclay brothers, who own the Ritz and the Telegraph newspaper, and Arron Banks, who spent £7.5m on the Leave.EU campaign, threw the reception for 120 guests to mark a year that has seen Farage help secure Brexit and become one of the first politicians to be granted an audience with the US president-elect.

Over English sparkling wine supplied from Lord Ashcroft's Gusbourne winery in Kent and canapes of coronation chicken and roast beef, Farage's achievements were celebrated by a crowd that included Tory Eurosceptic MP Jacob Rees-Mogg and John Mills, the businessman and Labour donor.

Farage told the gathering that Britain had a problem. "In America the revolution is total. Not only have the people spoken and won, but the old administration, Obama and all those ghastly people, are out and the Trump people are in," he said.

"In this country, the people have spoken but the same players have just been shuffled around the chess board and we are still being run by the career professional political class.

"I am not sure what is going to happen over the course of the next couple of years but I suspect there's another big seismic shock in British politics perhaps going to come at the next election."

Farage added: "I suspect that the Conservative party is not fit for the legacy of Brexit. I suspect there is going to be a genuine realignment of British politics over the course of the next three or four years ... There are great battles to be fought and I'm going to go on fighting those battles."

To cheers the MEP, who was first elected in 1999, declared: "For those of you who aren't particularly happy with what happened in 2016, I've got some really bad news for you – it's going to get a bloody sight worse next year."

Farage said on Tuesday it was "a bolt from the blue" that Trump had suggested on Twitter he should replace the British ambassador in Washington, Sir Kim Darroch. While Downing Street has rejected the suggestion, Farage insists the UK government should exploit his established links with Trump's inner circle, including with his chief strategist, Steve Bannon.

"Arron and a few others wanted to thank him for Brexit and everything he has done and we've invited an eclectic mix of friends that he wanted to have a Christmas drink," said Andy Wigmore, a Belizean diplomat who is communications director of Leave.EU. "He has had a hard year and done a good job and we wanted to thank him."

David Davis, the secretary of state for Brexit, was invited to the drinks. The drinks were paid for by Banks, Wigmore, Richard Tice, a property developer who co-founded Leave.EU, and Lord Pearson, a Ukip peer.

"The Ferrero Rochers are very important," said Wigmore. "We have done them in pyramids and the going-away gift is a box of Ferrero Rocher. If we are going to take the piss out of him – Ambassador Farage – we may as well do it properly."

Guests included the Ukip donors Jim Mellon, an Isle-of-Man-based tycoon, and Paul Sykes, the Yorkshire businessman. From Labour, Kate Hoey, who campaigned for Leave.EU, and Mills were expected.

Invited journalists included the Daily Mail's Richard Littlejohn, Simon Heffer from the Telegraph, Andrew Pierce from the Mail and Isabel Oakeshott, who worked on Banks's EU referendum campaign book Bad Boys of Brexit.

Ukip MEPs include the leadership contender Paul Nuttall and Mike Hookem, who was last month involved in an altercation with his colleague Steven Woolfe.

Wigmore was part of Farage's delegation to meet Trump shortly after the US election result. He told the Guardian that the suggestion Farage should become ambassador stemmed from a desire in Trump's team to push back against criticism Farage had been receiving in the UK.

"They are fully aware of the bullets Nigel has been taking," Wigmore said. "His people felt very enthused that he could be useful going forward and saw what was happening in terms of the criticism and thought, you know what, he would be a good person to have.

"Protocols and bureaucracy for [Trump] are the worst things in the world because it stops things happening," said Wigmore. "When we were in the meeting he was very passionate about wanting to make things happen and getting things done. He said: 'I don't want to have to go through talking shops and endless meetings about meetings when things could happen.' Like a businessman, he makes a decision, thinks it's a good idea and pushes it out there."

Asked if that was how the tweet about Farage becoming UK ambassador happened, Wigmore said: "Yes. He thinks he would be useful to the United Kingdom and the United States."