Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[The Brain]

Work harder, not smarter.

[HVC]

you're producing less so getting paid less? or am i misinterpreting how the two charts corelate?

[Sheilbh]

you're producing less so getting paid less? or am i misinterpreting how the two charts corelate?

Yep - and it is a puzzle why productivity is so low/stagnating. It's particularly obvious in the post-crash chart but worth noting that the UK has had slower growing productivity than most of europe for about 50 years so there's a long-term growing gap (and I think that may be linked to why some think at least part of it is a statistical issue of measuring services productivity).

Clearly austerity is a huge part of it. But beyond that I'm not sure and I don't think there is a consensus. I think it's mainly a demand issue and we need to spend more money and we should make big capital investments in infrastructure to linke cities etc (which we don't do - and we're already cancelling half of HS2 ), as well as for the energy transition. But I think skills is also part of it. I don't like the government's rhetoric against higher education and "low paid" degrees in the humanities (like mine! ), but I do wonder if we need to be aiming for 50% graduates as we are. I think broader, more available, cheaper skills-based education are an important and missing part of that mix.

Edit: And I think the stats coming out of the US show that in terms of investment - they're on track to move to a higher level of growth than just a post-crisis trend line. It's an absolute tragedy the way we've wasted and spent the last 10 years compared to what we could have done.

[Josquius]

On productivity- strikes me its a hard thing to try and measure.
Logically I expect its gone up a fair bit in recent times with covid-pushed switch to more wfh....though this won't be measured as everyone is still contractually on standard full 5 day contracts even if a lot of places do have a nudge and a wink about this.

This won't be the end either. Thanks to the tax rises in March and the ones announced, and the OBR increasing their growth projections the government should have about £100 billion to play with between now and the next election.

On wages in the latest moment endearing Johnson to the British business community he also said today that workers should go and ask their bosses for a raise

I think the thing that's interesting here is that I think politics has moved to the left decisively especially on economic issues since 2010 which is good - and why the Tories are shifting. I think there is something to the fear expressed by some Tory MPs, including Sunak's allies, that if politics becomes about public spending and both parties want to do that then it favours Labour because they're better at running the public services (while the Tories are trusted with the economy and finances).

On the other hand the Tories dominated the 50s and 60s by basically running on Labour's economic policy so...

Edit: But, I suspect it won't be responsive to a "x days to save our NHS" style Labour campaign - the type of Labour politics that party members and activists love. Not sure if Labour's message is there yet.

I dunno. I've heard this a lot (though I somehow suspect half the time people screaming about the communist tories are just idiots talking about lockdown) but I'm not quite seeing it.

Its populism, nothing more. This means giving a veneer of left wing politics at times...but only as far as is necessary to try and con white working class people. And more often than not its all talk with no follow up.
There definitely are BNPish elements to what they're doing but so much of it is just 'what can we do to get headlines' rather than actual investment on the unsexy necessary stuff.

Saving the NHS though not Labours prime attack spot (that would be crime at the moment) is definitely valid with the way the tories have ran it into the ground. I really don't think its being too tin foil hatted to say they're trying to force through a Irish style health system where anyone with a decent job goes private.

Another big element in the Tory approach for the past decade that they've shown no sign of pulling back on is the assault on local government. This is one where Labour have really fucked up and allowed the Tories to absolutely control the narrative. Anything thats wrong is the horrible corrupt local council's fault. Never that they've had their budget absolutely eviscerated.

Key against the Tories actually moving left I'd say is that there's no sign of serious discontent from the liberals in their ranks. Sure, the right by nature are far more into towing the party line than the left. Expecting a conservative SDP, especially after the mess that was whatstheirface (black and white stripey guys) is a bit much.
But I do find it suspect the neo libs are quite happily going along with the leftward promises- almost as if they know they're lies.

[Zanza]

(despite the big rebound from covid).

The UK had by far the biggest hit of all G20 countries when comparing Q4/2019 to Q1/2021, so a rebound must be big to compensate.

[Sheilbh]

Oh for sure - it's because the economy shrunk by 20% in the first half of 2020, but it is rebounding quicker and more strongly than predicted by the BofE, OBR etc.

I think we should aim for surpassing pre-pandemic growth trends though and look at spending money to do it (but I think a big part of that productivity puzzle is demand).

Edit: Incidentally Queen won't be attending Cop26 - feels like that hospital stay may have been a little bit serious.

[Richard Hakluyt]

About a quarter of the British economy seems to consist of "going down the pub"; so lockdown caused a massive dive in the economy but the recovery has been almost as quick. The furlough scheme appears to have prevented most of the potential permanent damage; damage that was greatly feared at the time...so well done Sunak I guess (he says through gritted teeth).

[Tamas]

Edit: Incidentally Queen won't be attending Cop26 - feels like that hospital stay may have been a little bit serious.

Why isn't her deadbeat son taking such duties over? I understand she is the monarch and all but she 94 years old FFS.

[Josquius]

Charles would make it all about himself. The smug "I was right all along" will have China burning coal again in no time.

[Sheilbh]

Also, world leaders don't want to see/hear from the understudy. No doubt he'll be there and probably doing an address at some point, he might even open it, but it's not the Queen - she's just been around for a long time which is part of the appeal.

[Agelastus]

Edit: Incidentally Queen won't be attending Cop26 - feels like that hospital stay may have been a little bit serious.

Why isn't her deadbeat son taking such duties over? I understand she is the monarch and all but she 94 years old FFS.

To quote the BBC -

The Queen was due to travel to Scotland as part of a string of COP26 engagements by senior members of the Royal Family including the Prince of Wales, the Duchess of Cornwall and the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge between 1-5 November.

The other royals will still attend the summit.

I haven't looked up the full list of visits (I would be surprised if Princess Anne, at least, wasn't showing up as well) but who exactly did you mean by "deadbeat son"? Andrew possibly counts but would also not be very welcome.

[Sheilbh]

God I love the French

I suspect the union guy is right and that this is largely driven by domestic politics - particularly given that the negotiator of this deal is a (unlikely) candidate and that Bertrand is President of the most affected region.

Separately Cornelis Gert Jan is a fantastic name for a scallop fisherman:

France to use 'language of force' in post-Brexit fishing rights row

Comments from French EU affairs minister come as British trawler is detained in France amid dispute
A British fishing trawler.
A British fishing trawler. French maritime police seized a British trawler found in France's territorial waters without a licence. Photograph: Steve Parsons/PA
Daniel Boffey in Brussels, Angelique Chrisafis in Paris and Peter Walker
Thu 28 Oct 2021 10.35 BST

France's EU affairs minister, Clément Beaune, has said Paris will "now use the language of force" in an escalation of a row over post-Brexit fishing rights, as French maritime police seized a British trawler found in its territorial waters without a licence.

One vessel had been stopped off Le Havre in the early hours of Thursday morning, after which it was rerouted to the quay and "handed over to the judicial authority", while a second was given a verbal warning.

In a statement, the French government said the checks during the scallop fishing season had been routine but admitted they were conducted "in the context of the discussion on licences with the United Kingdom and the European Commission".

Answering an urgent question in the Commons on Thursday, the UK environment secretary, George Eustice, condemned the comments as "not what we would expect from a close ally and partner" and warned of possible retaliation.

The trawler was later identified as the Cornelis Gert Jan, by a spokesperson for the South West Fish Producers Organisation.

The French government has been infuriated in recent months by the response of the authorities in the UK and Jersey to post-Brexit applications from French fishing vessels for permits to its waters, which are regulated by the EU-UK trade deal agreed on Christmas Eve last year.

The row blew up on Wednesday when Paris said it would ban British fishing boats landing seafood in key ports from Tuesday unless it received further licences for French vessels, and vowed to impose onerous checks on cross-Channel trade. There was also a threat issued to the UK's energy supply if those initial sanctions from Paris did not prompt the issuing of extra permits.

Sources in Brussels confirmed there was not yet support among the other 26 member states for EU action against the UK through the dispute resolution mechanism in the trade-and-cooperation deal.

Later on Thursday morning, Beaune doubled down, however, on the threat of unilateral French action, saying the situation was "not acceptable".

"So now, we need to speak the language of force since that seems to be the only thing this British government understands," he said. "We have been extremely patient, our fishing boats have been extremely responsible, because it's a major loss of their activity. From November, it's over. We'll open dialogue if the British want dialogue – it's up to them – but we'll put in place retaliation measures because there is no reason we shouldn't have access to their waters when they have access to our ports."

The UK has said that 1,700 EU vessels have been licensed to fish in UK waters and that 98% of applications for fishing licences had been granted. Eustice repeated this statistic in the Commons on Thursday, saying the UK "stands by its commitments in the trade and cooperation agreement".

He said: "It is very disappointing to see the comments that came from France yesterday. We believe these are disappointing, disproportionate and not what we would expect from a close ally and partner. The measures being threatened do not appear to be compatible with the trade and cooperation agreement, or wider international law, and if carried through will be met with an appropriate and calibrated response."

The French maritime minister, Annick Girardin, accused Britain of spreading misinformation. "The figure of 98% of licences granted by the United Kingdom to Europeans is false," she said. "Only 90.3% were. Obviously, the missing 10% are for the French ... It has been nine months since French fishermen have no longer been able to work. It is a breach of their signature by the British. That's enough."

The main differences between the two sides centre on rights within the six- to 12-mile zone from the British coast. Earlier this week, the European Commission said the UK government had approved 15 out of 47 applications for French boats to operate in those coastal waters. A further 15 applications were being considered where evidence of activity in those waters was limited, but 17 applications had been withdrawn by French applicants because of "poor evidence".

Of greater concern to the French authorities is that one-third of boats applying to fish in the waters off Jersey, a British crown dependency, have been turned down by the island's government.

Barrie Deas, from the National Federation of Fishermen's Organisations, the body representing fishers in England, said the descent into a "tit for tat" relationship was "unhelpful".

He told the BBC's Today programme: "It may be normal enforcement action but against the background of the threatening noises coming from the French government ... it's very concerning.

"France seems determined to escalate this issue about licences and I suppose we have to wonder why. There's a presidential election coming up in France and all the signs are that the rhetoric has been ramped up ahead of that on the fishing issue."

[Agelastus]

Grandfathering them in requires evidence of previous fishing in the area (I think for 5 years); this is part of the deal.

A number of French fishermen cannot provide this evidence, despite the fact that legally they need to keep records of where and when catches were made.

The lack of support among the rest of the EU for dispute resolution is probably because they are very well aware the issue is lack of evidence - that the French boats should have had readily available if French fishermen were being adequately monitored.

[On monitoring...allegedly (and I treat it as such as I haven't hunted down the original information) when rules on net sizes were introduced/amended and a monitoring regime put in place, Britain put someone in place in every fishing port to do the checks. France hired two people for the whole country. If true this does not fill me with confidence concerning the French monitoring regime. Ireland has also been hammered recently for inadequate monitoring - https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/ireland-faces-losing-thousands-of-tonnes-from-fish-quotas-after-eu-investigation-1.4485289 so the EU does take the issue seriously and may be wondering what is going on with France.]

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Ireland is also apparently unhappy about how the quotas have been re-apportioned post-Brexit - https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/ireland-not-at-all-happy-about-disproportionate-fish-quota-loss-minister-1.4465353

[Tamas]

Yeah as much as I am with the EU on the NIP, this whole fishing thing seems like domestic sabre rattling, probably by both sides.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah as much as I am with the EU on the NIP, this whole fishing thing seems like domestic sabre rattling, probably by both sides.

I think the quotas get re-negotiated every five years, so possibly in line with French Presidential elections - so we may end up with the traditional threat of French Presidential candidates to cut off energy supplies to the UK