Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Reports that a deal has been agreed.

Tony Connelly does not think so (yet).

Neither does Sky Reporter:

Joe Pike
@joepike
BREAKING: No 10 source: 'The deal is done'.

#Brexit
However other senior No 10 sources far more cautious: 'We're still talking'.

[mongers]

...snip...
I think this is sort of true on the EU side too - I saw Anand Menon who's a UK expert and professor on trade talks getting quite annoyed at Tony Connelly of RTE for talking about the UK wanting "access to the single market" because that's not been the ask for a year, whatever happens there'll be the regulatory costs, the customs forms and friction, the negotiations are basically about tariffs. As he put it we all need to stop living in 2018.
...snip...

He's excellent isn't he.

[Tamas]

It feels a bit early for a deal, we have a full week left until the deadline set a year ago.

[The Minsky Moment]

Someone needs to invent a Boris translation machine, e.g.:

"The Brexit deal is done!"  --> I spoke to the PM of Luxembourg and he wished me happy holidays
"England has won the World Cup!" --> the national team got a draw and avoided elimination in a qualifying match
"COVID is completely under control"  --> at least I'm not Trump
"This government is the most competent and efficient in UK history" --> see above.

[Sheilbh]

It feels a bit early for a deal, we have a full week left until the deadline set a year ago.

Although we are only two months after the point at which we would need to agree a deal to meet all the EU's procedural requirements

[Sheilbh]

Horrified to discover I'm a Liz Truss fan now

Liz Truss and Foreign Office split over policy on China and Uighurs
Trade secretary supports role for UK courts in determining whether genocide is happening
Patrick Wintour Diplomatic editor
Wed 23 Dec 2020 15.33 GMT

A behind-the-scenes struggle over UK policy towards China has begun, with Liz Truss, the trade secretary, backing plans, opposed by the Foreign Office, to give the British courts a role in determining whether genocide is happening in Xinjiang province.

MPs are due to vote in the new year on the Lords' all-party amendment to the trade bill, which would give the courts a preliminary role in determining whether a genocide is being committed by a country with whom the UK might sign a trade deal.

The Foreign Office (FCDO) is opposed to giving UK courts preliminary power to determine whether genocide is occurring in Xinjiang, or elsewhere, saying this decision rests with competent international courts rather than national governments.

But it is claimed Truss is content to back the measure.

The Foreign Office is due to present a new cross-government approach to China in the new year. It is focusing on setting stricter obligations on firms trading in Xinjiang to ensure their supply chains do not involve slavery.

China has denied repeated claims that Uighur Muslims have been held in detention or re-education camps.

Nigel Adams, a Foreign Office minister, told MPs he feared an "asset flight" if ministers rushed to impose sanctions on Chinese officials for their role in the detention of Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang.

Adams warned of a risk to the British economy from moving towards individual human rights sanctions against Chinese officials. He said sanctions had to be developed in a responsible way, adding: '"It is not right to speculate or rush into the measures. There is a pretty good chance you are going to see asset flight if that is the case."

The minister warned MPs there would be consequences if British firms used forced labour, and promised a cross-government response in the new year.

Ministers are looking at civilian fines for companies that do not show due diligence and a corporate duty to prevent human rights abuses.

There was "credible, troubling and growing evidence" of forced labour taking place on a significant scale in Xinjiang, said Adams. The province provides more than 20% of the world's cotton.

With two Commons select committees, the foreign affairs select committee and the business select committee, looking into allegations of breaches of international humanitarian law in Xinjiang, British fashion chains are moving to clear up their supply chains.

Adams said: "All businesses involved in investing in Xinjiang or with parts of their supply chains in Xinjiang should conduct appropriate due diligence to satisfy themselves that their activities do not support, or risk being seen to support, any human rights violations or abuses."

The Lords' cross-party amendment, tabled by the Labour peer Lady Kennedy, the former Tory cabinet minister Lord Forsyth and the crossbencher Lord Alton, proposed that the high court should have the power to determine whether the evidential hurdle of genocide is met. It would be for the government to decide if such a ruling required it to withdraw from a prospective trade agreement.

The measure is being supported by the former Conservative party leader Iain Duncan Smith.

Minsters said in September they would update the Modern Slavery Act 2015 in the new year to possibly include the introduction of civil penalties for companies' non-compliance, including lack of due diligence.

Work on the duties required of businesses, especially the fashion industry, to clean up their supply chains, has not been completed, but ministers insisted they had recognised that the law was too weak and seen as a box-ticking exercise by many firms.

As it prepares a broader policy on China, the government is also waiting to see whether the Biden administration in the US will drop the aggressive anti-China rhetoric and economic measures of the Trump government.

Jake Sullivan, expected to be the new US president's national security adviser, has already asked the EU not to go ahead with a planned EU-China investment agreement without first consulting the US. In a tweet, he urged "early consultation with our European partners on our common concerns about China's economic practices".

The EU external affairs commissioner, Josep Borrell, had said an agreement was likely to be made by the end of 2020, but many critical of China regard any such deal as a setback for those wanting labour rights to be part of the EU trading relationship.

A Department for International Trade (DIT) spokesperson said: "These reports are untrue. DIT and the FCDO are completely aligned on our policy towards China."

[Sheilbh]

The ERG are going to review things in their "Star Chamber"

Christopher Hope
@christopherhope
NEW ERG statement from chairman and vice chairman Mark Francois and @DavidJonesMP

"Assuming a deal between UK and the EU is officially confirmed tonight, the ERG will tomorrow reconvene the panel of legal experts, chaired by Sir Bill Cash, to examine the details and legal text.
"The team of highly experienced lawyers, previously known as the 'Star Chamber' was first assembled in 2019 to examine the legal aspects of Theresa May's original Withdrawal Agreement.
"Given that the new agreement is also highly complex, the Star Chamber will scrutinise it in detail, to ensure that its provisions genuinely protect the sovereignty of the United Kingdom, after we exit the Transition Period at the end of this year.
"The Star Chamber, which will include some new members to replace those now in Government, will undertake its examination as expeditiously as possible, before providing its conclusions on the merits of the deal - which we will aim to make public before Parliament reconvenes."

Pretending like it's 2019 A quick look at the Sun and the Mail's front pages helps show how irrelevant the ERG have become.

And yet despite that and despite mocking them for the last four years (especially Mark Francois), Sir Bill Cash was a Maastricht rebel and has been a Brexiter for thirty years. In 2015 a minority of MPs were Eurosceptic and a tiny rump Brexiters. They got a referendum, stopped soft Brexit, overthrew a PM, took over the Tory party, won their biggest majority since 1987 and, even if they're unhappy with the deal and even if there's a price (in Northern Ireland), they've delivered something far closer to their ideal than anyone else's. It is a hell of a victory and there are probably lessons for other factions in parliament.

[Valmy]

Watching the footage from Dover/Calais, it looks like after all these years the French *finally* pulled off the Continental System.

échec et mat perfide Albion

[garbon]

This fish stock stuff is riveting.

[The Brain]

Minsters said in September they would update the Modern Slavery Act 2015 in the new year to possibly include the introduction of civil penalties for companies' non-compliance, including lack of due diligence.

Descendants of York Minster?

[Zanza]

Here is the list of all the things the UK government "won" - I guess that spin is necessary for domestic acceptance:

https://de.scribd.com/document/489048219/Government-Analysis-of-the-Deal-Document

[Zanza]

The last sentence.

Edit: There was one more:

[garbon]

Here is the list of all the things the UK government "won" - I guess that spin is necessary for domestic acceptance:

https://de.scribd.com/document/489048219/Government-Analysis-of-the-Deal-Document

If it helps Brexiteers support the deal, more power to it.

[Tamas]

"We wanted something and we didn't get it: we win!"

[Josquius]

Not directly brexit related but thought this interesting. Not because it's saying anything new but because it's finally getting a mainstream media airing.
Fingers crossed the downfall of the alt right is underway as people grow rise to the nonsense of identity politics.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/23/conservatives-white-working-class-black-racial-inequality

The Conservatives are pitting the white working class against black people
Simon Woolley
Racial inequality is more obvious than ever. Yet, in a clear dogwhistle, the government denies it's even a problem

Lord Woolley was chair of the No 10 race disparity unit until July 2020
Liz Truss, minister for women and equalities, at Downing Street, London, February 2020
Wed 23 Dec 2020 12.09 GMT

836
It appears the government has found a new way to deal with deep-seated racial inequality in the UK: ignore it, deny it and claim to those on the receiving end of racism that it's merely their "perception" rather than their lived experience.

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Worse still, part of this government's "radical" plan is to frame the debate – during this extraordinary year of disproportionate Covid-19 deaths and the killing of George Floyd – in a way that labels Black Lives Matter and other race equality campaigners and educators as somehow conspiring against white people. And to use this tactic particularly and cynically among white working-class voters in the north, many of whom played a significant role in last year's Conservative general election victory.

This new grand plan has been months in the making, but was formally unveiled last week by the two equality ministers, Liz Truss and Kemi Badenoch, and supported by their appointed race equality tsar and chair of the government's commission on race and ethnic disparities, Tony Sewell.

As a precursor to Truss's speech last Thursday, Sewell – who was a controversial appointment because of his history of denying institutional racism – announced that his much-anticipated report into Covid-19 and race inequality would not now be delivered by the end of year. Yet without a draft paper even being discussed by his fellow commissioners, he said the report would "challenge perceptions of racism" and that "our early findings suggest that life chances are more influenced by age, sex, class, and geography rather than race". In other words, despite the massive increase in awareness of racism all around the world this year, the government inquiry will tell us race is a minor consideration.

Sewell's thinking ignores the copious amount of government reports laying bare deep-seated inequality, such as the Lammy review of racism within the criminal justice system, or the McGregor-Smith review of workplace inequality. And it appears he's telling black Britons that it's merely their "perception" that they are up to 19 times more likely to be stopped and searched by the police, more likely to have force used against them by officers, up to 58% more likely to be unemployed, and up to 47% more likely to be working on zero-hours contracts.

I met Sewell and his commissioners this summer. I wanted to talk about racial disparities and how we might close them, but from the start of the conversation he wanted to focus on questions such as, "How do we change the race narrative?", "How do we stop talking about things like 'white privilege'?"

This was deeply frustrating. As I informed his team, we have a truly unique opportunity, in this historic year, to influence the prime minister and all government departments. And if they really want to change the language they should first help change the systems that keep producing such racial inequities. The narrative will automatically change as outcomes improve.

Yet it appears the die was cast. Under this government, it seems that confronting race inequality is the problem, and last week Liz Truss presented a grand "equality" plan that could turn the clock back 50 years.

In a bizarre speech, she reminisced about her schooldays in 1980s Leeds: "While we were taught about racism and sexism, there was too little time spent making sure everyone could read and write." Was she really saying that schoolkids should not be taught about racism and sexism, because it would harm their literacy? Obviously someone in government noticed how ridiculous the idea was, and those passages were erased from the "official" version of her speech on the department website.

Truss's take on history echoed a similar imaginary scenario put forward by her fellow equality minister Kemi Badenoch, who told a BBC podcast last month that anti-racism campaigners wanted history to be taught "in a way that [suggests] good people [are] black people" and "bad people [are] white people".

This fanciful and misleading description of education past and present is allowing this government to frame a narrative that says our children are being brainwashed by anti-racists and that Black Lives Matter is just a "passing fad" (Badenoch's words). It's clearly a dog-whistle to its new working-class northern voters, many of whom supported Brexit because they oppose immigration.

For similar reasons, the government slashed overseas aid spending – despite pledging to maintain it in the Conservative election manifesto just 12 months ago. Determined to keep their "red wall" voters, the Conservatives are taking a leaf from the Donald Trump playbook that pits poor white people against poor black, Asian and minority ethnic communities. At a time when our nation needs to come together this cynical agenda seeks to divide us.

Indeed, this government has mastered the tactic of making it appear to be inclusive, by appointing and promoting a number of black and Asian people as cheerleaders for its hardline agenda. Dr Raghib Ali was one of the latest: he said systemic racism played no part in the disproportionate impact of Covid-19 on black, Asian and minority-ethnic communities. It is little surprise therefore, that a recent YouGov survey showed that 84% of Britain's ethnic minorities think the UK is still racist.

As a lifelong race equality campaigner who once proudly served as a commissioner on the Equality and Human Rights Commission, I've watched with despair as that formerly independent institution has become blatantly politicised. Its black representation has been all but obliterated, to be replaced by such figures such as racism denier David Goodhart, anti-feminist Jessica Butcher, and Baroness Falkner, who believes anti-Muslim public sentiment is "understandable". It is all deeply troubling. It seems the government is determined to squander this historic moment – indeed, to remove safeguards against racism rather than improve them.

Never before in my life has our society been more prepared to acknowledge and confront its deep-seated racial inequalities; yet never before has a government seemed so keen to embed them further.

Thankfully big business has responded fantastically to this moment, as too have local authorities, and practically every academic institution. Difficult conversations have been had, and experiences listened to; historical facts have been laid bare, Britain's slavery profiteering has been debated, for us to better understand why things are so unequal.

People know that if we deal with this, everyone benefits – black and white, north and south. As we head into an uncertain 2021, we must not let down the young generation who took the streets to demand a better world: they are a ray of hope and energy that needs to be acknowledged, listened to and supported.

Simon Woolley is the director of Operation Black Vote. He was chair of the No 10 race disparity unit until July 2020