Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Richard Hakluyt]

The brexiters I know don't care about Scotland, Wales or NI; are not interested in "punching above our weight" and do not want our armed forces to be deployed abroad in wars in countries that are irrelevant (ie all foreign countries  ). They do want our laws to be made by people we directly elect.

Which is anecdotal I know; but my direct experience of these people does not chime with what pro-remain media say about them.

[Tamas]

I mean, UK is already a cultural satellite to the US - like the rest of the developed world except they share a language so it can develop further and farther. And I don't think the UK on its own will be able to remain on its own. France and Germany sorta' need each other to wield the EU around their necks and pretend they are global powers. The UK won't have that, it will end up gravitating toward one of the bigger planets. It won't be China, and on the short to medium term it probably won't be the EU. That leaves the US. Will the UK literally join as the 51st state? Of course not. But I would expect it to become a sort of European Puerto Rico kind a deal (especially if the UK breaks apart), although quite likely I won't live long enough to see it.

Canada and Mexico are right there - far less the rest of Latin America. There are lots of countries that are far geographically closer to the US, generally US allies and they have somehow retained their independence. Or Australia or Japan - both of which are far more threatened from a security perspective and dependent on the US alliance but they're still independent. They all also have something far nearer to European style regulations and social democracy than the American system. I just don't get why the UK is going to end up becoming a European Puerto Rico when the only American Puerto Rico remains Puerto Rico

I don't see the basis for this point of view. It's a possibility but it strikes me as about as inevitable as the triumph of liberal capitalist democracy.

I can see there being tech blocs emerging in attitudes (but not regulations) and purchasing decisions in new tech where the world does basically split into Europe, China and Five Eyes Plus (including Japan and Korea). But I think that's going to be far less determinative than the types of blocs that people seem to think around the US or China.

And for what it's worth I think Brexit voters are not really driven by a desire to be a global power (it might be different for Brexit leaders, but I'm not sure). The global power pitch was made by remainers and made sense to people like me. In the campaign Blair, Cameron and Clegg all gave speeches on the theme of choose Great Britain not Little England. All the people fretting about the fall in British influence are those types of remainers. I think this was fundamentally a nationalist vote about building (or re-building) England primarily.

I think there's a bit of a horseshoe spectrum going on: from Leave voters who just want to be a normal country like Canada or Australia, to Leave and Remain voters who want to "punch above our weight" through influence with the US/EU delete as applicable (or don't if you're a true centrist dad like me ), and then Remain voters who just want to be a normal European country like Finland.

Fine, but, does Mexico and Canada have a similar mantra to the British "Special Relationship"? I don't think the Americans care much for that but clearly if nobody else than the British press and politicians like to think they have a special "in" with the US. Also, did Mexico and Canada jump head-first into the 2003 invasion of Iraq because the US asked them to? Did the BLM protests prompt copycat protests (with slogans and statute-busting included) in Mexico and Canada? Etc.

[Josquius]

So what should we be stockpiling?
Pasta and olive oil seem the logical two.

The brexiters I know don't care about Scotland, Wales or NI; are not interested in "punching above our weight" and do not want our armed forces to be deployed abroad in wars in countries that are irrelevant (ie all foreign countries  ). They do want our laws to be made by people we directly elect.

Which is anecdotal I know; but my direct experience of these people does not chime with what pro-remain media say about them.

Those I know are pretty insane.
Going on about how we had an empire and won the war and all that. They seriously do seem to see negotiations with the EU as being between equals, or even the UK as the stronger side. They've totally swallowed the leaving the EU for the world garbage.
They of course have rarely left their home town, their experience of parts foreign largely being majorca et al.

Though fun story emerging of one guy who always acts like an idiot swallowing all the conspiracy nonsense but who has been surprisingly well behaved about corona...seems he might have listened to people and voted remain after all but knows he has to pretend otherwise for social appearances.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Yeah, I do feel we are entering an age of conformity, it is just there are several conformities to choose from. I mean what do you say to folk if you live in small town Alabama and favour gun control, think that black lives matter and favour higher taxation on the wealthy? Move I guess.

[The Brain]

I see zero indication either Wales or Northern Ireland are interested in voluntarily seceding so this strikes me as unlikely to be the secret agenda of Brexit.

FWIW my impression is that there are several agendas of Brexiters, some secret and some not.

[Sheilbh]

The brexiters I know don't care about Scotland, Wales or NI; are not interested in "punching above our weight" and do not want our armed forces to be deployed abroad in wars in countries that are irrelevant (ie all foreign countries  ). They do want our laws to be made by people we directly elect.

Which is anecdotal I know; but my direct experience of these people does not chime with what pro-remain media say about them.

Yeah I agree with this in my experience generally. And I think most of those voters are basically national not imperial in attitudes. There might be a bit of resentment (mixed with envy) to Scotland but aside from that it's just indifference to Northern Ireland or Wales (which is basically seen as more or less English anyway).

Fine, but, does Mexico and Canada have a similar mantra to the British "Special Relationship"? I don't think the Americans care much for that but clearly if nobody else than the British press and politicians like to think they have a special "in" with the US. Also, did Mexico and Canada jump head-first into the 2003 invasion of Iraq because the US asked them to? Did the BLM protests prompt copycat protests (with slogans and statute-busting included) in Mexico and Canada? Etc.

So I think Canada is "our closest ally" with the US and that relationship is central. But they're definitely very close - I think the neuroses around the relationship with the US are unique but I also think they're relatively recent and likely to pass. The truth is the US is our most important ally and we'll always have to work with them whoever is in charge. But since the "special relationship" became a thing under MacMillan it's only really happened when either US and UK politics aligned (Thather-Reagan, Blair-Clinton) or the leaders did (Blair-Bush).

Fair point on Iraq but look at Australia - hugely dependent on the US alliance as Chinese power in the Pacific grows. I think the Aussies have a phrase for their relationship with the US too (but again it's been up and down) and they sent troops to both Iraq and Vietnam. But they're not Puerto Rico.

And yeah there were BLM protests in Canada and all over Latin America. In countries with large black populations - like Brazil or Colombia it was basically very similar to the US - but in other countries which don't have a large black community - like Mexico - it was more a launchpad for protests against police brutality and in custody deaths (which happen a lot in Mexico). I think most European countries had them too. The US's cultural orbit is large

FWIW my impression is that there are several agendas of Brexiters, some secret and some not.

There are also several different types of Brexiter and the biggest distinction I'd draw is between their Brexit voters and Leave campaign leaders.

[Tamas]

See this: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/dec/23/nhs-chiefs-urge-pm-to-extend-brexit-transition-by-a-month


A long article about the need to prolong the transition period to avoid NHS troubles and how noble NHS bosses are pleading to the evil PM to extend it.

Not a single bloody mention that it is not up to Britain only how long the transition period is. It just does not seem to compute even to the Guardian that this whole Brexit thing is not a British dictate to the EU.

[The Brain]

A month extra would cost them roughly £1.5 billion (they only start getting £350 million a week after Brexit).

[Sheilbh]

See this: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/dec/23/nhs-chiefs-urge-pm-to-extend-brexit-transition-by-a-month


A long article about the need to prolong the transition period to avoid NHS troubles and how noble NHS bosses are pleading to the evil PM to extend it.

Not a single bloody mention that it is not up to Britain only how long the transition period is. It just does not seem to compute even to the Guardian that this whole Brexit thing is not a British dictate to the EU.

Yes - but I suppose what else are the NHS bosses supposed to do. They can lobby the PM publicly to extend it but they don't have any influence in the EU and it's pretty weak if their demand is "please do all you can to extend the transition period though, of course, we understand this also requires the EU to approve". And the Guardian is as happy blaming this on a Tory MP as acknowledging it's actually difficult to do

In a way I think there's a wider confusion in the UK media between the transition period and last year. Then we were an EU member and there was an easy legal mechanism to extend negotiations for withdrawl. Now we are out of the EU but lots of the consequences of that only kick in at the end of the transition period (I think this is not well understood by Remainer Britain - including the Guardian) and not only that but it is legally quite difficult for the UK or the EU to extend the transition period.

It's not impossible, but it would be really complicated (and under the WA the easy way of extending it was to agree to that in before the deadline). So it's not just that both sides need to agree to it, it's that actually both sides would need to do some work to do it - for example from a UK perspective we'd need to change legislation, from an EU perspective there's no clear treaty basis to extend the transition period.

But in the UK media because there were extensions to the Art 50 period, because that it's a different situation now than negotiating a withdrawal, I think there's a lot of falling back on last year's issues and also last year's narratives. I think this is sort of true on the EU side too - I saw Anand Menon who's a UK expert and professor on trade talks getting quite annoyed at Tony Connelly of RTE for talking about the UK wanting "access to the single market" because that's not been the ask for a year, whatever happens there'll be the regulatory costs, the customs forms and friction, the negotiations are basically about tariffs. As he put it we all need to stop living in 2018.

[The Brain]

I'm not gonna stop flossing. Red line.

[Tamas]

See this: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/dec/23/nhs-chiefs-urge-pm-to-extend-brexit-transition-by-a-month


A long article about the need to prolong the transition period to avoid NHS troubles and how noble NHS bosses are pleading to the evil PM to extend it.

Not a single bloody mention that it is not up to Britain only how long the transition period is. It just does not seem to compute even to the Guardian that this whole Brexit thing is not a British dictate to the EU.

Yes - but I suppose what else are the NHS bosses supposed to do. They can lobby the PM publicly to extend it but they don't have any influence in the EU and it's pretty weak if their demand is "please do all you can to extend the transition period though, of course, we understand this also requires the EU to approve". And the Guardian is as happy blaming this on a Tory MP as acknowledging it's actually difficult to do

In a way I think there's a wider confusion in the UK media between the transition period and last year. Then we were an EU member and there was an easy legal mechanism to extend negotiations for withdrawl. Now we are out of the EU but lots of the consequences of that only kick in at the end of the transition period (I think this is not well understood by Remainer Britain - including the Guardian) and not only that but it is legally quite difficult for the UK or the EU to extend the transition period.

It's not impossible, but it would be really complicated (and under the WA the easy way of extending it was to agree to that in before the deadline). So it's not just that both sides need to agree to it, it's that actually both sides would need to do some work to do it - for example from a UK perspective we'd need to change legislation, from an EU perspective there's no clear treaty basis to extend the transition period.

But in the UK media because there were extensions to the Art 50 period, because that it's a different situation now than negotiating a withdrawal, I think there's a lot of falling back on last year's issues and also last year's narratives. I think this is sort of true on the EU side too - I saw Anand Menon who's a UK expert and professor on trade talks getting quite annoyed at Tony Connelly of RTE for talking about the UK wanting "access to the single market" because that's not been the ask for a year, whatever happens there'll be the regulatory costs, the customs forms and friction, the negotiations are basically about tariffs. As he put it we all need to stop living in 2018.

At the very least the article itself in one of THE major papers of the country should briefly reference the fact Johnson is just one of 27ish dudes who'd have to agree to an extension.

[Zanza]

If there is political will for an extension of the Transition Period, they will reopen the Withdrawal Agreement as that is an EU only agreement and amend it by allowing to ask for an extension until 31/12/2020 instead of 30/06/2020.

[Sheilbh]

At the very least the article itself in one of THE major papers of the country should briefly reference the fact Johnson is just one of 27ish dudes who'd have to agree to an extension.

Meh - I'd expect the Guardian to focus on Johnson's failure and, say, the Telegraph to blame it on the dastardly EU and, especially, the French

But it's also not quite as simple as it being up to the member states because we're not in Article 50 anymore. So your options are to amend the WA (which would require an opinion from the CJEU because it's legally unclear if that's possible and then the Council plus the Parliament) or you basically have a new transition extension treaty, which could even be part of the main trade agreement (but again that's likely to be Council plus the Parliament and because the transition affects more than just trade I think there's a possibility it would be mixed even if the trade agreement wasn't, so could need approval of relevant national and regional parliaments too ).

[Sheilbh]

If there is political will for an extension of the Transition Period, they will reopen the Withdrawal Agreement as that is an EU only agreement and amend it by allowing to ask for an extension until 31/12/2020 instead of 30/06/2020.

Yes-ish.

There's a procedure in the treaties for the EU to amend treaties (which involves the Council and the Parliament). It's really, really unclear if that applies to an Art 50 agreement because it's not an international agreement that is within the EU competency, it's a basic treaty on the operation of the EU. I've seen lawyers arguing both sides and I think the CJEU would allow it because they tend to always reach a politically helpful decision, but it's in enough doubt I think you'd need an opinion beforehand.

Reports that a deal has been agreed.

[Zanza]

Reports that a deal has been agreed.

Tony Connelly does not think so (yet).