Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Barrister]

too bad we'll have to wait 30 years or longer to know if Brexit was a good or bad idea after all.
This thread has a future

Probably closer to 30 minutes.

YOu'll know the immediate downside immediately.  But the benefits, if any, of Brexit will take time to unfold.

[Sheilbh]

YOu'll know the immediate downside immediately.  But the benefits, if any, of Brexit will take time to unfold.

I think both will take time. There'll be immediate disruption (whether there's a trade agreement which primarily affects tariffs or not - whatever happens there are customs checks etc) which will be largely dealth with by the end of 2021. The real consequence of Brexit will be that we are poorer than we would otherwise have been (and than our neighbours). Unless there are benefits through policy decisions which is possible. Not that that's terrifically likely in the short-term.

[Tamas]

I think in 50-100 years people will look back and say it was Brexit that launched Britain to become the 51st state.

[Sheilbh]

I think in 50-100 years people will look back and say it was Brexit that launched Britain to become the 51st state.

Just like Canada or Japan or Australia?

I sort of feel like there's a strand of European fatalism about the inevitable power and draw of China and the US that I just don't really agree with.

And it is worth noting that the UK, which is a far smaller economy is confronting China including over human rights, while the EU which aspires to strategic autonomy and is an economic superpower is considering an Investment Agreement that doesn't even include a commitment not to use forced labour. If you'd asked me to guess which was which at the start of this year I would have guessed the opposite way round. In part that's because there is a view that by doing an agreement with China the EU gains strategic autonomy v the US, but I think it far more strongly reflects a fatalist/pessimist view.

[Tamas]

I think in 50-100 years people will look back and say it was Brexit that launched Britain to become the 51st state.

Just like Canada or Japan or Australia?

I sort of feel like there's a strand of European fatalism about the inevitable power and draw of China and the US that I just don't really agree with.

And it is worth noting that the UK, which is a far smaller economy is confronting China including over human rights, while the EU which aspires to strategic autonomy and is an economic superpower is considering an Investment Agreement that doesn't even include a commitment not to use forced labour. If you'd asked me to guess which was which at the start of this year I would have guessed the opposite way round. In part that's because there is a view that by doing an agreement with China the EU gains strategic autonomy v the US, but I think it far more strongly reflects a fatalist/pessimist view.

I mean, UK is already a cultural satellite to the US - like the rest of the developed world except they share a language so it can develop further and farther. And I don't think the UK on its own will be able to remain on its own. France and Germany sorta' need each other to wield the EU around their necks and pretend they are global powers. The UK won't have that, it will end up gravitating toward one of the bigger planets. It won't be China, and on the short to medium term it probably won't be the EU. That leaves the US. Will the UK literally join as the 51st state? Of course not. But I would expect it to become a sort of European Puerto Rico kind a deal (especially if the UK breaks apart), although quite likely I won't live long enough to see it. 

[Sheilbh]

I mean, UK is already a cultural satellite to the US - like the rest of the developed world except they share a language so it can develop further and farther. And I don't think the UK on its own will be able to remain on its own. France and Germany sorta' need each other to wield the EU around their necks and pretend they are global powers. The UK won't have that, it will end up gravitating toward one of the bigger planets. It won't be China, and on the short to medium term it probably won't be the EU. That leaves the US. Will the UK literally join as the 51st state? Of course not. But I would expect it to become a sort of European Puerto Rico kind a deal (especially if the UK breaks apart), although quite likely I won't live long enough to see it.

Canada and Mexico are right there - far less the rest of Latin America. There are lots of countries that are far geographically closer to the US, generally US allies and they have somehow retained their independence. Or Australia or Japan - both of which are far more threatened from a security perspective and dependent on the US alliance but they're still independent. They all also have something far nearer to European style regulations and social democracy than the American system. I just don't get why the UK is going to end up becoming a European Puerto Rico when the only American Puerto Rico remains Puerto Rico

I don't see the basis for this point of view. It's a possibility but it strikes me as about as inevitable as the triumph of liberal capitalist democracy.

I can see there being tech blocs emerging in attitudes (but not regulations) and purchasing decisions in new tech where the world does basically split into Europe, China and Five Eyes Plus (including Japan and Korea). But I think that's going to be far less determinative than the types of blocs that people seem to think around the US or China.

And for what it's worth I think Brexit voters are not really driven by a desire to be a global power (it might be different for Brexit leaders, but I'm not sure). The global power pitch was made by remainers and made sense to people like me. In the campaign Blair, Cameron and Clegg all gave speeches on the theme of choose Great Britain not Little England. All the people fretting about the fall in British influence are those types of remainers. I think this was fundamentally a nationalist vote about building (or re-building) England primarily.

I think there's a bit of a horseshoe spectrum going on: from Leave voters who just want to be a normal country like Canada or Australia, to Leave and Remain voters who want to "punch above our weight" through influence with the US/EU delete as applicable (or don't if you're a true centrist dad like me ), and then Remain voters who just want to be a normal European country like Finland.

[HVC]

What are the odds of the UK breaking apart and those states join the EU within 50 years? Is see Scotland doing it. And Ireland becoming whole (with all the religious violence that entails). How was out the welsh? How do they feel about Europe?

[Josquius]

The Welsh nationalists have started proposing independence as an actual policy.

Though it seems to go without saying that they don't actually see this as feasible and don't expect to be in a position to have to follow through. It's just a way to try and grab votes.

But yes. Scotland is just a question of when since the brexit vote.
Ireland is iffier. Things are shifting in favour of unification but there'll always be a scummy minority on both sides who are up for a fight if things change.

[Sheilbh]

What are the odds of the UK breaking apart and those states join the EU within 50 years? Is see Scotland doing it. 

So it feels likely in the case of Scotland given the demographics (I'd also add given the SNP's politicisation of Scottish education, especially history). Young people are overwhelmingly pro-independence, older people overwhelmingly pro-union. I think it gets more difficult outside of the EU. When we were both in the EU independence would just be a messy domestic divorce. Scotland leaving the union and aspiring to join the EU raise a lot of questions the SNP want to avoid far more vividly - not least currency and also as an external applicant nation the current Scottish "deficit" (there's no such thing because of the way UK financing works) is around 9% which is way beyond any other applicant state (the EU expects countries to join in good order). To an extent those two issues are easier to fix if Scotland attains independence while in the EU and maintains its EU membership.

The weird thing about independence - given the demographics - is that polling on it is incredibly volatile, which I find surprising but also makes it difficult to predict. I think unless the SNP develop a more convincing answer to the currency issue (their current one is that they will continue to use Sterling) it might actually swing back to a small pro-union majority. In the last six months alone support for independence in polls has been as low as 43% and as high as 55%, it's very, very up and down. I also think if the Tories get rid of Johnson (who is uniquely English and whose appeal is uniquely English) then it could change the picture.

The other issue is that so far Scottish nationalists have stayed relative united, but they are starting to get restive with one faction wanting to go down a Catalan route and organising an immediate (and probably not legal) referendum, while Sturgeon's taking a more restrained (and in my view politically savvy approach). I think they will win the Scottish Parliament elections next year but if they don't get a referendum from London then there will be real splits within the nationalist camp.

At the minute I'd bet on independence, but I don't know that I'd bet folding money on it.

And Ireland becoming whole (with all the religious violence that entails).

I thought this was likely until last year. Now I'm far less sure. In part because Northern Ireland will get the best of both worlds and stay in both the EU single market and the UK single market. Which I think is good for Northern Ireland, because if anywhere deserves all the economic help they can get it's Northern Ireland. I think the big reason I don't see a border poll happening any time soon was the Irish election in February and the possibility of a Sinn Fein government in Ireland.  I think that is an absolute red line for most unionist voters - it's one thing to govern with Sinn Fein as part of a confessional power-sharing arrangement. It's another to be a political, cultural and religious minority group in an island governed by Sinn Fein.

And it is worth remembering that while Northern Ireland voted to Remain as a whole they reported as constituencies. All but one of the DUP constituencies voted Leave, all the Sinn Fein and SDLP (moderate nationalists) constituencies voted Remain as did the Alliance Party (non-sectarian) seat.

How was out the welsh? How do they feel about Europe?

Wales is basically the same as England on this. It went about 53% Leave/48% Remain which is basically in-line with the English regions it is next to: the North-West and the South-West. In the last Senedd elections Labour won about 35% of the vote, Plaid won about 20%, the Tories won about 20%, UKIP won about 10-15% and the Lib Dems won about 5-10%. The polling for the next election is basically Labour around 35-40%, Tories around 25-30%, Plaid about 20%, the Brexit Party around 5% and the Lib Dems and Greens under 5%.

My understanding is if you look at the demographics of Wales they voted in the Brexit referendum like those demographics in England. And I think that's broadly similar in Senedd elections too, except there's about a 20% Plaid vote. But that Plaid vote is obviously stronger in Welsh speaking areas like Gwynedd and Dyfed - but they also look a bit like some of the traditional Lib Dem areas of rural England.

Edit: And I think there is risk of violence in Northern Ireland - regardless of what happens now. There was a leaked report by the Police Service of Northern Ireland that said that both extremist Republicans and Loyalists had recruited a lot in recent years. The estimate on the number of Loyalists is that they actually have more members now than they did during the Troubles (this is why I think its' probably for the best that the EU opted for a co-working space as and when it's necessary rather than a permanent office which would have just been a target). That may not spill over into terrorism and sectarian violence - both Republicans and Loyalists have plenty of other interests such as organised crime, they even cooperate on people and drug smuggling, but it's something to watch.

Edit: And the other slight unknown in UK politics is Farage's next act because he has re-branded the Brexit Party as Reform UK or the Reform Party. It's not quite clear what direction they're going in but their early moves seem to be around general democratisation plus culture wars (abolish the House of Lords, reform the BBC to stop being so politically correct, back free speech) plus covid scepticism (they're opposed to lockdowns), they also seem to be staking out a pro-motorist/anti-environmentalist position which is probably quite smart because all the other parties are committed to energy transition (and the distribution of the costs of that are likely to be controversial).

The key of Johnson's (and arguably the Tories) success has been to ensure there's no splits on the right and there's no political space for a party to the right of them, while the left splits into Labour, Greens and (historically) Lib Dems - this was Roy Jenkins' () great theory of why the 20th century was conservative not progressive in the UK. The right was always united while the left was normally split and when they weren't, they won. I think especially on energy and covid that there is a space opening up to the right of Johnson which I suspect Farage will try to occupy.

[Zanza]

too bad we'll have to wait 30 years or longer to know if Brexit was a good or bad idea after all.
This thread has a future

Probably closer to 30 minutes.

YOu'll know the immediate downside immediately.  But the benefits, if any, of Brexit will take time to unfold.

Quite a bit of time according to one of the main proponents:

[The Brain]

I think this was fundamentally a nationalist vote about building (or re-building) England primarily.

My impression is that a significant part of at least leading Brexiters want an independent England. Leaving the EU makes other parts of the UK more likely to leave the UK which is then more and more just England. England could of course leave the UK, but then it would lose its seat on the Security Council and its status as a nuclear weapons power according to the Non-Proliferation Treaty etc so that's not very attractive.

[Zanza]

I think this was fundamentally a nationalist vote about building (or re-building) England primarily.

My impression is that a significant part of at least leading Brexiters want an independent England. Leaving the EU makes other parts of the UK more likely to leave the UK which is then more and more just England. England could of course leave the UK, but then it would lose its seat on the Security Council and its status as a nuclear weapons power according to the Non-Proliferation Treaty etc so that's not very attractive.

And yet they are likely to block another Scottish referendum.

[Valmy]

I see zero indication either Wales or Northern Ireland are interested in voluntarily seceding so this strikes me as unlikely to be the secret agenda of Brexit.

[garbon]

I don't really see evidence that Brexiteers want Scotland out either. Seems like they want to keep UK whole with England remaining in a dominant position.

[celedhring]

Watching the footage from Dover/Calais, it looks like after all these years the French *finally* pulled off the Continental System.