Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[DGuller]

In addition to thinking about the effect of the failed coup on Putin, I wonder what the effect is on Russia itself.  For a while now it stuck me how Russia completely dropped the pretense of the rule of law as the war dragged on.  Wagner is an illegal armed gang according to the Russian law, and yet they were the face of Russian military in Ukraine, had access to Russian convicts to put into meatgrinder, and had blank check to commit whatever murders or extrajudicial executions they wanted.  It's not the only armed gang either, as other state enterprises also have their own armies in Ukraine, and so does Kadyrov (who got a lawless fiefdom of his own way before it was fashionable).  Is it a country descending into warlordism?

[Sheilbh]

Descending into, or did Putin just better manage, control, maybe channel the same forces from 90s Russia?

What was underworld is maybe just becoming more prominent - as you say the Chechens a little ahead of the game. Even with Prigozhin and all the jokes about him as a caterer - catering and hospitality have always been useful fronts for money laundering for mobs.

[Admiral Yi]

Also allegedly Putin's speech got repeated by state TV four times, likely because they were initially told it'd be longer, which'd mean he chickened out of something at the last moment.

End time for Putin. Won't be in power by August, calling it now.

I'll take the over.

[Jacob]

If chaos follows up Putin's exit - whenever that is - I expect we'll see groups of Russians venerating him basically as a saint.

[Valmy]

If chaos follows up Putin's exit - whenever that is - I expect we'll see groups of Russians venerating him basically as a saint.

Well I do remember how shocked I was when I first started posting on Paradox just how many Russians loved Stalin. Granted the internet had been in my life for awhile then but that was still surprising.

Now I wouldn't bat an eye. So I fully expect the "Putin did nothing wrong" cult to be vibrant long after he losses power.

[DGuller]

Stalin's image had gone through a rehab during Putin's reign, especially the latter part of it.  Before Putin the typical view of Stalin was that he was a paranoid monster who nevertheless was a great leader of the country, and who was instrumental in its survival.  After Putin's whitewashing campaign, he was a great leader who did what he had to do, and everyone he murdered really was plotting against him or the country anyway.

[Josephus]

Also allegedly Putin's speech got repeated by state TV four times, likely because they were initially told it'd be longer, which'd mean he chickened out of something at the last moment.

End time for Putin. Won't be in power by August, calling it now.

I'll take the over.

Me too. He's got the same longevity as Trump *

* Yes, I know, but you know what I mean.

[Solmyr]

Could he retire to a hospitable dictatorship? I guess China would be the only option, but Xi doesn't seem like he'd make a good host.

Saudi Arabia is the only country I can think of, but I don't think that would happen either.

And even then - what is to stop a Saudi government 5 years down the road who needs a favour from the West from turning in Putin?

There's always Iran or North Korea.

[Legbiter]

Zolotov, head of Rosgvardia claiming that they could have crushed Wagner and in any case that they'll be receiving tanks and other heavy weaponry in the future. Shoigu and Gerasimov don't seem to be going anywhere, so no danger of sudden competence breaking out among Russian high command. That danger seems to have been averted. Prigo will lay low in Belarus. For a coup to succeed you'd need the Moscow garrison to carry it out it seems.

[Duque de Bragança]

So Rosgvardia will be more than just Carabinieri/Gendarmes, Russian-style. 

[Legbiter]

So Rosgvardia will be more than just Carabinieri/Gendarmes, Russian-style. 

Yeah, Leibstandarte Vladimir Putin basically. Equipment for internal coup-proofing will not be used on the front.

[viper37]

If chaos follows up Putin's exit - whenever that is - I expect we'll see groups of Russians venerating him basically as a saint.

Well I do remember how shocked I was when I first started posting on Paradox just how many Russians loved Stalin. Granted the internet had been in my life for awhile then but that was still surprising.

Now I wouldn't bat an eye. So I fully expect the "Putin did nothing wrong" cult to be vibrant long after he losses power.

I always dream we could deport these people to North Korea.  Just like I want every single Québec Solidaire fan to live in Cuba for the rest of their lives and experience the wonders of socialism.  A single trip plane ticket.  Come back swimming if you don't like it there.

[Josquius]

There's better examples of socialism than Cuba.

[HVC]

There's better examples of socialism than Cuba.

China?


I kid. send them to Sweden. It's socialist, plus it's cold and they speak funny so the Quebecers will feel right at home

[celedhring]

There's better examples of socialism than Cuba.

China?


I kid. send them to Sweden. It's socialist, plus it's cold and they speak funny so the Quebecers will feel right at home

I don't think China is socialist.

I know this is a bit of academic discussion for which I'm ill-prepared, but I think socialized ownership of the means of production is a tenet of classic socialism, and China doesn't do that. Or Sweden for that matter.