Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono

[HVC]

Good point.

[Admiral Yi]

We don't know the value added and we don't know the cost.

We can estimate, no? Total LLM buildout is like 500B so far, I figure Meta is like 20% of that.

[Tamas]

We don't know the value added and we don't know the cost.

We can estimate, no? Total LLM buildout is like 500B so far, I figure Meta is like 20% of that.

What are you basing the 20% on?

[Admiral Yi]

What are you basing the 20% on?

Meta's market share of online advertising deflated by the non-advertising AI players like ChatGPT reflated by some commentary I saw on CNBC about how dependent NVidia is on the hyperscalers for  chip sales.

[Zanza]

For the SpaceX IPO, the rules of the NASDAQ index and the S&P 500 were changed regarding free float minimum. Which means that all ETF investors will be the bag holders for this and maybe later Antrophic and OpenAI. It's not bad enough itself to divest from index funds, but it certainly moves more wealth from retail investors to the American oligarch class. Fits into the overall kleptocracy. 

[Valmy]

I just still don't understand how big of an idiot one would have to be to invest in SpaceX. The company is barely profitable and has little prospect of growth. Musks recent pronouncements of building a giant chip fab in Austin is so delusional and detached from reality it boggles the mind...I mean even more than usual.

But none of this has made any sense to me.

[Josquius]

I just still don't understand how big of an idiot one would have to be to invest in SpaceX. The company is barely profitable and has little prospect of growth. Musks recent pronouncements of building a giant chip fab in Austin is so delusional and detached from reality it boggles the mind...I mean even more than usual.

But none of this has made any sense to me.

We are in a bizare economy absolutely where buzz can keep stocks flying high for years whatever the balance sheets show.
That tesla hasn't crashed yet... Jeez.

[Tonitrus]

I just still don't understand how big of an idiot one would have to be to invest in SpaceX. The company is barely profitable and has little prospect of growth. Musks recent pronouncements of building a giant chip fab in Austin is so delusional and detached from reality it boggles the mind...I mean even more than usual.

But none of this has made any sense to me.

Isn't most of the theoretical value potential in SpaceX is from Starlink (and not space launch vehicles)? 

[Valmy]

I just still don't understand how big of an idiot one would have to be to invest in SpaceX. The company is barely profitable and has little prospect of growth. Musks recent pronouncements of building a giant chip fab in Austin is so delusional and detached from reality it boggles the mind...I mean even more than usual.

But none of this has made any sense to me.

Isn't most of the theoretical value potential in SpaceX is from Starlink (and not space launch vehicles)? 

I know. But Starlink doesn't exactly have a huge growth market out there. It is pretty much already mature at this point.

[Tonitrus]

I dunno, I live in a pretty rural area where the ground-based options are pretty bad...and based on the plethora of complaints about said option, its potential seems still fairly underutilized. 

The biggest barrier to potential consumers right now seems to be their "demand surcharge" (plus maybe some bad memories of the problems with DirecTV satellite internet from the older folks).

[Valmy]

I dunno, I live in a pretty rural area where the ground-based options are pretty bad...and based on the plethora of complaints about said option, its potential seems still fairly underutilized. 

The biggest barrier to potential consumers right now seems to be their "demand surcharge" (plus maybe some bad memories of the problems with DirecTV satellite internet from the older folks).

Yes. It is a market of people who live in isolated areas but also have money to pay. That is a pretty limited market.

[DGuller]

I just still don't understand how big of an idiot one would have to be to invest in SpaceX. The company is barely profitable and has little prospect of growth. Musks recent pronouncements of building a giant chip fab in Austin is so delusional and detached from reality it boggles the mind...I mean even more than usual.

But none of this has made any sense to me.

I was browsing through this thread today, and a couple of things struck me:  this forum really is dying, our discussions were so much livelier, and the diversity of perspectives was much wider.  What also struck me is how often my takes aged like milk, like this one.

What do you guys think of Tesla motors?  (TSLA)

Been watching them for a few weeks and hoping I didn't just miss a window, looks like they're about to have a nice spike in the morning.  Really hoping for another offering though...

IMO, from an car guy's perspective, they're a dead end.  Their current cars are crap, and if there is a breakthrough in battery technology, the big boys will put it in place first, and much more comprehensively.  Then again, their crappiness may already be fully priced in, so buying their stock is like taking a gamble that they'll turn out to be less crappy than expected for a while.

The reason I'm skeptical of Tesla is that today's battery technology isn't going to cut it, there isn't enough development in it to ever make it practical for a car.  There has to be a revolution in battery technology, and it'll come eventually.  However, given how many big boys in many different industries are interested in it, the odds are that they'll get it and not an upstart like Tesla.

Tesla didn't make sense to me back then either, but I think Elon had it more right back then.  I definitely wouldn't dare to bet against him understanding something I don't.  You have to do something most rational people think is stupid, if you want to do much better than most rational people.

[The Minsky Moment]

The SpaceX S-1 will release very soon, so we will see.

My guess is the underlying space business is fine, but weighed down by massive xAI losses.

[Valmy]

I was browsing through this thread today, and a couple of things struck me:  this forum really is dying, our discussions were so much livelier, and the diversity of perspectives was much wider.  What also struck me is how often my takes aged like milk, like this one.

Hot takes from 2012. Yes I am aware we don't have massive debates like we did back in 2004. But it has been a minute. Forums are old news, the kids don't use them. Only olds like us still post on forums.

Ok so maybe I am wrong. But I don't invest in things I don't understand how they work. If you see how starlink has a massive untouched market with tons of money ready to pay go right ahead.

But one thing I sure as fuck know isn't going to work is Elon's ridiculous chip fab. Because I actually know a tiny bit about chip manufacturing and what he claims he is going to do there is absurd.

Tesla didn't make sense to me back then either,

It didn't? It was on the ground floor for a service in massive demand. I was a big fan back in the day. But now Tesla is going all in on BS like self driving cars and robots and shit nobody really wants that bad. I just wanted well made and reliable electric cars. I don't want some weird ass human looking uncanny valley robot or some bullshit six figure sticker price "truck" that has insufficient power or carrying capacity to actually function as a truck. Shouldn't a business invest in products people actually want or need to buy?

[Valmy]

My guess is the underlying space business is fine

It is fine. It is stable. But that is all it is. SpaceX is barely profitable.

Maybe I am wrong but I don't see it. What big space breakthrough is going to change that?