Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono

[Tamas]

So you are certain it's a bubble?

You can have a valid argument that it's the early stages of the bubble and it may eventually deflate gently, but I don't see what's the argument for this NOT being a bubble. Valuations had no relation to earnings with the big 7 even before the AI craze. We have been in a bubble since the Covid money-printing, if you ask me.

[Admiral Yi]

You can have a valid argument that it's the early stages of the bubble and it may eventually deflate gently, but I don't see what's the argument for this NOT being a bubble. Valuations had no relation to earnings with the big 7 even before the AI craze. We have been in a bubble since the Covid money-printing, if you ask me.

The argument for it not being a bubble is the difference between a value stock and a growth stock.  For a growth stock there will inevitably be a period of unprofitability so you need to forecast demand in the long term.  A company that looks like shit on present valuation could be the next monster.

I'm curious if any of you bubble callers have put your money where your mouth is.

[crazy canuck]

yep

[Josquius]

You can have a valid argument that it's the early stages of the bubble and it may eventually deflate gently, but I don't see what's the argument for this NOT being a bubble. Valuations had no relation to earnings with the big 7 even before the AI craze. We have been in a bubble since the Covid money-printing, if you ask me.

The argument for it not being a bubble is the difference between a value stock and a growth stock.  For a growth stock there will inevitably be a period of unprofitability so you need to forecast demand in the long term.  A company that looks like shit on present valuation could be the next monster.

I'm curious if any of you bubble callers have put your money where your mouth is.

Put your money where your mouth is how?

I can see arguments for its a bubble don't touch it and it's a bubble, get your share before it pops, depending on your risk tolerance et al.

[Tamas]

Yes, in the sense that I have sold everything bar a tiny amount of index fund, another tiny amount of gold ETF, and my deeply, deeply red weed stock. Sold them way too early too, btw.

[Valmy]

Bubbles tend to do a lot of collateral damage though 

[Jacob]

Bubbles tend to do a lot of collateral damage though 

Yeah.

I'm not particularly riding the bubble or betting on it collapsing soon or anything. My primary concern is not about the impact on my portfolio (such as it is).

What I do worry about is what will happen if (when) the bubble pops - will it damage my industry and leave me without a job? Will the economic repercussions leave me much worse off financially, even if I don't lose my job?