Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Josquius]

Quite irrelevant in the moment (while also being relevant of course).
What is relevant in such periods in time is that they're not the parties of old. What the new parties represent hardly matters, other than that they're not Labour or the Tories (for the UK).

It's not unlike what happened/happens in other countries when the established parties are perceived as no longer delivering its part of the social contract to their voters.
You get this, even in proportional systems where coalitions can then work with a 'cordon sanitair'. You just turn them into underdogs fighting against 'the system'.

Whilst there's truth to this on one level, that people are attracted to outsiders, with Reform its worth noting of their 8 MPs 5 were part of the previous Conservative government and very much on board with its goals, not rebellious outsiders. Two of them were in the cabinet.
Another 1 was a Tory councillor before being elected under the Reform banner.
Only Farage and Tice can be forgiven as though they were Tory members once upon a time this was a while ago and their political career has been firmly built around non-Tory far right parties.

Not to mention their dodgy donations from wealthy people and their policies being what they are...they firmly represent the establishment that got us where we are today. Farage has been very keen to avoid talking about these. I've heard the theory put forth its why they broke electoral law with their Farage Camps in Green seats crap.

The Greens on the other hand...now they are far more credible in their scrappy underdog coming in from the outside role. They seem to be enjoying quite some success in this and really pushing forward in poorer areas, which is a massive upset for the media who had largely written off these areas as lost to the far right. And honestly myself to an extent too despite having much more contact with the areas. Goes to show the silent majority actually does want a better country as much as loud local idiots want to burn it all down.

Voting reform != Voting Reform 

Ending FPTP?

Yes.
Interestingly I find its something Deform have historically always had on their manifesto too.... but now they're being talked up as the next government are curiously quiet about it.

[Grey Fox]

Yes, that's how the 3rd way act. Election reform until FPTP delivers victory and then you want to keep it because it works.

[Sheilbh]

So Starmer made clear he won't voluntarily step down this morning - and seemed to imply that if there's a leadership challenge he will run. I'd just note that I think it was wrong of him to be making that statemet before any Welsh or Scottish results had come through and just shows the contempt the party HQ holds the other nations in (similarly I'm slightly stunned to discover that Douglas Alexander who was a Scottish Labour MP and ally of Brown ran the Scottish Labour campaign, not the Scottish Labour leader or the MSPs from the Scottish Parliament ). I suspect this also means he will use his power on the National Executive Committee to block Burnham from running again if he needs to.

There were reports last week that the cabinet were not willing to push him out and of the view that it needed to come from the backbenchers (very much profiles in courage). And potential current leadership challengers aren't willing to go first. Apparently there have been backbenchers looking at the coup against Blair in 2006 when basically backbenchers published an open letter calling for Blair to set a timeline for his retirement - and had a junior minister announce they were signing the letter and resign from the government on the hour every hour. Blair announced the timeline within 24 hours. Not clear if they've actually done the organisational work yet.

What is possibly more significant are the moves on the union. The TSSA has repeated their call for a leadership election - but they've done this before so not a massive surprise. Although I think the point that they won't let Starmer "pave the way for a hard right goernment led by Nigel Farage. Joe Biden did exactly that in the US, and it's clear from these results that we're facing a similar catastrophe". They are saying they'll work with other unions "to ssert our political influence at all levels of the Labour Party" to deliver a change of leadership. Sharon Graham the General Secretary of the Unite union (Labour's largest donor having provided over £50 million over the last 25 years) has said this could be the beginning of the end of the party: "the working class have ben abandoned and delivered their verdict. [...] Labour ministers can loyally read out lists of their achievements but no one is listening. If every one of those achievements were in stereo they wouldn't even touch the sides of the vision that is needed now. [...] Only fundamental, irreveersible change will stem the tide. If the party does not shift decisively towards the working class it is finished. It is change or die. Now or never."

The unions have less formal, constitutional power than they used to (Ed Miliband made a lot of reforms during his leadership to strengthen the power of activist members and weaken the unions). But those sort of statements are very strong and they still matter - at the most basic level, they still fund the party. It's also worth noting that all Labour MPs are members of different unions so I suspect they'll be exering influence there. The political wing of the Labour movement may be weak and timid but I suspect the unions will be pushing hard to get him out now.

[crazy canuck]

Yes, that's how the 3rd way act. Election reform until FPTP delivers victory and then you want to keep it because it works.

See Trudeau in 2015, "if elected this will be the last FPTP election"

[Sheilbh]

Yes.
Interestingly I find its something Deform have historically always had on their manifesto too.... but now they're being talked up as the next government are curiously quiet about it.

Maybe. That's normally the way. You support electoral reform until FPTP delivers a majority for you when you suddenly see the virtues of the system.

It is still in their manifesto - but they've never talked about it much. They've never been, like the Lib Dems, a constitutional reform focused party. But Reform (and before them the Brexit Party and UKIP) have a very radical set of policies on constitutional change. They want to move to PR, they want to abolish the House of Lords and move to a unicameral system, they want to be able to appoint ministers who are not sitting in parliament (but would be able to be called to parliament to answer question). Not for the first time their policies actually resemble a lot of continental Europe. I'm not sure if there's anywhere with precisely that combo (PR, unicameral, government not made up of MPs - maybe some of the Nordics?) but they're all features of European systems.

But as you say they're normally chasing Tory votes and I sort of wonder if talking about a very radical set of constitutional changes (more ambitious than the Lib Dems say) is just something that would deter Tory voters.

Yes, that's how the 3rd way act. Election reform until FPTP delivers victory and then you want to keep it because it works.

Yeah. Tony Blair was very interested in electoral reform and appointed a commission by his mentor (and a politician I really admire despite many issues with him) Lord Jenkins who was one of the founders of the Social Democrats and then Lib Dem grandee. He'd talked about and set up some informal relations with the Lib Dems.

But in reality it was just driven by Blair/Labour's trauma from the last 18 years of Tory rule and genuine fear that Labour just could not win and that the Tories, like a baddie in a horror movie, were always poised on the edge of a comeback. Once in power Blair gratefully received Lord Jenkins' recommendations (Alternative Vote plus regional list top-ups) and then did nothing about it and the cooperation with the Lib Dems fell away.

[Sheilbh]

Incidentally this is also a bad set of results for the Tories, as predicted. But it looks like they have actually ticked up in the projected national vote share (them and the Greens are the only parties who seem to have increased their vote on that measure).

But I actually think some of their results will be enough to make them fairly happy - it looks like they've won Wandsworth and Westminster in West London which are historicaly "flagship" councils for the Tories and where they hoped to make gains. More interestingly and a bit of a surprise, they also won back Bexley which was a big Reform target (Bexley is an outer London borough in South-East London - basically the Kent/London borders). They also held off Reform in Broxbourne in Hertfordshire.

None of these are partciularly significant on their own. But the challenge for Labour - losing different areas to Reform, Greens and Independents - is that it's not clear who their constituency is anymore. Looking at the areas where the Tories are doing surprisingly well it looks like they still have a constituency - which is basically affluent and elderly (in many ways their traditional core support). That's not enough to win an election - but that is base they can work from, whereas I think Labour is facing something quite existential (and of course arguably that is how periods of strange multi-party politics play out in a FPTP system - whether it's the 80s when Labour was nearly replaced or the 20s and 30s when the Liberals were).

I'd add that the Lib Dem results also look a little interesting. Because for a party deeply committed to electoral reform, they are incredibly optimised for FPTP now. So the Lib Dems now have every council seat in Richmond (basically Waitrose, the town - it's a posh bit of South-West London if you've ever seen the "FENTON!" video - that's in Richmond Park) and have strengthened their position in other South-West London boroughs. There's even one or two nuclear cockroach Lib Dems surviving otherwise total Reform wipeouts in, say, Grimsby. But it's really interesting because they're so FPTP - in certain areas where they are strong they are absolutely dominant, and then in lots of the country where they don't have a chance of winning they basically don't exist. It's interesting but I sort of feel there'll be a dog catching the car moment for the Lib Dems if there's ever electoral reform because I'm not sure they're set up for that sort of broad, national pitch or appeal.

[Josquius]

None of these are partciularly significant on their own. But the challenge for Labour - losing different areas to Reform, Greens and Independents - is that it's not clear who their constituency is anymore. Looking at the areas where the Tories are doing surprisingly well it looks like they still have a constituency - which is basically affluent and elderly (in many ways their traditional core support). That's not enough to win an election - but that is base they can work from, whereas I think Labour is facing something quite existential (and of course arguably that is how periods of strange multi-party politics play out in a FPTP system - whether it's the 80s when Labour was nearly replaced or the 20s and 30s when the Liberals were).

A key mistake Labour are making is only looking at who they are losing seats to.
They've been way too focussed on Reform but for years, predating Polanski, they've been steadily losing voters to their left as well.

There was a report recently of which other parties people would consider voting for and Reform voters overwhelmingly said no to Labour. Like <1%.
Labour have to stop chasing Reform voters and recognise even in areas where Reform are the threat they can be better placed not losing a big chunk of their vote to the Greens than fighting for the same people as Reform.

[Sheilbh]

It's not a choice and if Labour think it's a choice they're fucked because they won the last election on less than 35% of the vote. So whether they buttress their right or left flank doesn't matter - if they only focus on one, then they will lose. And I've said it before but policy is the least important thing in politics. We are weirdos on this forum - if you have an opinion about policy you're in the 5% most politically engaged and wildly unrepresentative. I think it's the same reasons that people are abandoning Labour on both sides - the vibes are off, it's the inauthenticity, the aimlessness etc.

That's why if you look at similar polling Andy Burnham does better than all of the other possible leaders with both Reform and Green curious voters. It's part of why I think there's a bit of a Labour Boris Johnson (in a complimentary way) about him.

The exception to that, I think, is Muslim communities and I think there is a generational shift going on that is dismantling the traditional Labour machine/baradari politics in those communities. But also a politicisation that is pretty important and profound in those areas. I think there, Gaza has been and is absolutely fundamental as an issue. But I also think the stuff about highlighting Green (and Labour) liberalism on issues of sexuality etc is not going away. As I say I think it's going to be one of the most interesting things to watch in politics in the next few years.

I've mentioned before but I used to live in Whitechapel and I think there were early signs of this there over Iraq (and the fracturing of Bangladeshi machine politics). First with George Galloway winning the seat in 2005, but then also the huge rupture of the Labour Party with a significant chunk of British Bangladeshi councillors leaving and forming a party, Aspire, around the mayor Lutfur Rahman. And there was a youth revolt element to it of younger people getting quite politicised against elders who were very integrated into the local Labour Party. The reality is that they've actually been pretty good at running local government - I'd argue better than Labour. Though Tower Hamlets has some unique advantages (basically it gets a lot of taxes from Canary Wharf that it can then re-distribute). There are absolutely big issues in Tower Hamlets and with Rahman and Aspire - but I think they are more competent locally than Labour. And I think that a similar process is happening in other Muslim areas (more Pakistani areas) now.

[Josquius]

Its not a binary no. But at the moment they seem to be heavily treating it like one. Really gunning for the Reform leaning vote whilst completely ignoring the more left wing vote.

Definitely true its vibes over policy. Though these vibes aren't necessarily what the media has traditionally painted them as. The Greens are doing OK in some pretty poor parts of the country that you'd think are prime Reform territory. Its really curious.

On Muslims...yeah. Its a slight worry. Could the breakthrough of Wahabism as the old eldars pre-dating its influence steadily die be causing big problems? Even when its not showing itself in outright extremism.
Traditional South Asian Muslims were a lot more used to living side by side with people who are different. Not quite pro-LGBT but....a lot more accepting of it than many would expect of Muslims. South Asia's anti-gay laws being your usual colonial holdovers rather than anything pre-existing.
South Asians were far more used to living in multi-cultural live and let live environments than the modern protestant Islam of the nutters that dominate our thinking.
Though I do think/hope that other issues will dominate with them. Bengal on the front line of climate change, the need for community cohesion and functional public services....these things matter more than a difference of opinion on LGBT matters. Hate the sin not the sinner is something they're a lot more on board with than the more by the book middle eastern strains.

As I've said a lot LGBT stuff really needs de-politicising. The right have successfully weaponised stuff that before was just accepted. We need to lightly ridicule and move on vs those who see the threat of a guy deciding he wants to be a woman as somehow more important than starving children.

[garbon]

So far my borough has seen Greens growing while Reform largely flopped in areas it was expected to be competitive.

[Sheilbh]

Greens won the mayoralty in my borough (he used to be a Labour councillor in my ward) - still waiting for council results:

[garbon]

I found a local "news" outlet that is running a blog as they each ward is announced for my borough. Nice to see compared to BBC's just overall result.

[Sheilbh]

I found a local "news" outlet that is running a blog as they each ward is announced for my borough. Nice to see compared to BBC's just overall result.

Oh that is good - I'll see if there's something similar here

I also saw the Brixton Buzz blog covering the Lambeth results where they had the Socialist candidate saying she was confident she'd won six votes and was delighted

Separately I think we're now up to 6-7 Labour backbenchers calling for Starmer to go and this is now starting to look coordinated. They're not all being released at once but a bit of a steady drumbeat.

[Sheilbh]

And Greens won their first London council in Waltham Forest. They had no councillors, they've just won 32, all from Labour who are down to 15 - the Tories still on 11.

Edit: Actually looks like Tories picked up a seat too and the Greens also did a bit better than I thought (must have been declared majority but not all seats counted):


Edit: And sorry got the Senedd numbers wrong. Labour had, I think 48 of 96 seats - and now down to 9. Final results of the Senedd (worth noting Labour had fiddled with the electoral system here to help their position it has not worked):

Politics UK
@PolitlcsUK
🚨 FINAL RESULT: The Welsh Senedd goes into no overall majority with Plaid Cymru as the largest party

🌼 PC: 43 (+20)
➡️ RFM: 34 (+34)
🔴 LAB: 9 (-35)
🔵 CON: 7 (-22)
🟢 GRN: 2 (+2)
🟠 LDM: 1 (+1)

96/96 seats

I'd assume there'll be a Plaid minority government.

Edit: Labour's lost control of Brent to a Green and Lib Dem surge. I don't think anyone had anticipated that. Looks very bad for Labour in London.

[Josquius]

Newcastle is safe. Lib Dems on 25, Deform and Green on 24. Hopefully the Greens and Lib Dems can pull together to actually try to help the city.
Though I do know some of these lib dems originally came to power opposing LTAs so... Maybe hoping for too much.
At least we aren't heading to the gutter though.

The east end has gone sickeningly fasc however. Further highlighting how I need to move.