Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Josquius]

The lib dems are being weird here.
Totally invisible in my ward. But still running a full 3 candidates-the also invisible tories just list 1.
Apparently really heavily targeting the more upper class, studenty and hipster parts of town though.

[Sheilbh]

I have no idea who Labour stands for. Definitely not the working class. I have always disliked their authoritarian streak and think many well-off middleclass liberal types feel the same. The attack on Angela Rayner is contemptible and is part of the explanation why they have never had a female leader; there seems to be a dislike of women that does not fit with a supposedly "progressive" party....I daresay many women have noticed this. Whatever the faults of the Tories they have shown that being female or from an ethnic minority is no bar to highest office; and does not freak out the vast majority of voters.

By the by on the Rayner thing was just thinking about the absolute hostility and contempt that people in Labour HQ have treated Diane Abbott with and I do think there is a particular issue with parts of the top of Labour with certain types of women. There's factors in Labour which mean black MPs (particularly women) are more likely to be on the hard left of the party, like Abbott or Dawn Butler. But I'm very struck that people like Florence Eshalomi and Miatta Fahnbulleh who, by all accounts, are very impressive and on the soft left haven't really been promoted at all. I think Eshalomi was, like Emily Thornberry (again - it does often seem to be women), who had a shadow role going into the 2024 election but didn't become a minister afterwards.

And I can't help but wonder if it's possibly leading them to underestimate Badenoch. I think Guardian coverage of her for example has been unusually hostile - but also the extent to which Labour people and centre-left commentators thought it was inevitable she'd be replaced by Jenrick who would be better seems both incredible and perhaps inadvertently revealing.

[mongers]

And I can't help but wonder if it's possibly leading them to underestimate Badenoch. I think Guardian coverage of her for example has been unusually hostile - but also the extent to which Labour people and centre-left commentators thought it was inevitable she'd be replaced by Jenrick who would be better seems both incredible and perhaps inadvertently revealing.

It's really a foregone conclusion now, you'll be voting Tory straight down on all ballot papers henceforth. 

[Sheilbh]

I'll literally never vote Tory. They're the enemy

But I think Badenoch has been consistently underestimated by commentators and Labour - I think at their peril - and I think part of that is possibly unconscious bias. Possibly the same sort of unconscious bias that made the same people think Keir Starmer (white, middle aged, boring, knight of the realm, lawyer) would be good at the job.

I'd add I think a Tory revival is under-priced (I also think Labour forming and leading the next government is under-priced). Not only is she polling ahead of her party and leading on the economy, but she's the best rated party leader (the Polanski fall since Golders Green is striking):


Much as I hate the presidentialiation of our politics the rating of party leaders tends to be more significant than actually party polling at this stage of a parliament (e.g. Labour were consistently ahead of the Tories in 2010-15, Miliband was never ahead of Cameron). There was a lot of commentary from centrist and centre left commentators who I like and respect about whether the Tories or Labour would ditch their leader first. That's not even a question now and that's an impressive turnaround.

(Also if you add Andy Burnham to that list he's one of the only politicians in the country with a positive approval rating which feels like something Labour's in no position to turn up its nose at...)