Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

I mentioned it in the Off-Topic thread but the anti-semitic incidents in this country are really worrying.

Today there's been a stabbing of two Jewish men which has been declared a terrorist incident. This follows I think not last week but the week before when there were three separate attempted arson/firebombing attacks on Jewish properties (synagogues, charities etc) - that in turn followed an arson attack on Jewish ambulances a week or two ago. And obviously this is after the attack on the Manchester synagogue.

I think this attack is getting attention but I think there is something to the point Kemi Badenoch made that had there been three attempted arson attacks on black churches or mosques in a week I think there would have been more attention. I was surprised at how little national news that week received - I can tell you from my own experience that it was absolutely getting a lot of attention with British Jews.

From what I've read some of it does seem tied to Iran (a bit like there seem to have been Russian links to attacks on logistics infrastructure). But I think there are wider issues.

Edit: Map of what's been going on. Worth flagging there's about 250-300,000 Jews in the UK - about 100,000 of that community live in this bit of North-West London. As Ben Judah has put it online, it's like a town within the city:


Jewish News frontpage is pretty blunt - and in fairness I have thought a lot of these bromides in recent weeks increasingly take on the flavour of "thoughts and prayers". I'd add I saw this via Robert Peston, a Jewish journalist/host on ITV. Immediate responses saying it's a Mossad false flag or saying they need to call out "genocide" and "the IDF".

[crazy canuck]

I would say that the UK is drifting whereas the USA is in active and rapid decline. Since that is happening to the USA we really need to stop drifting and get the country ready for the new and nastier world that is being created. But we have no leaders of high quality in sight at the moment and the electorate are self-indulgent and entitled; one hopes for "cometh the hour cometh the man" but maybe we will not be so lucky this time round.

Zelensky is not going to lead Ukraine forever. Maybe we can implore him to help?
But serious: yeah, the current crop of politicians seems rather meh. And thats not only in the UK.
"De spoeling is dun" as we say in dutch

We already called dibs on Carney.

[Tonitrus]

Your king is visiting Washington DC and all of the lampposts have American and British flags. I hadn't realized he was visiting and I thought all of the British flags were part of the 250th anniversary celebrations, which I thought was kind of a weird choice. 

His Majesty's royal motorcade did not hinder my commute at all, so thank you for that. 

Apparently Charles made a joke at the state dinner comparing the current wreck of the east wing to their burning of the White House in 1814. 

[Sheilbh]

To return to base party politics for a moment, lots of attempts to project what local elections next week might look like. Various degrees of catastrophic for Labour, but all seem to be pointing to them losing perhaps as many as 75% of their council seats up for election this year The New Statesman guess:


Bad for the Tories but I think they've got a reasonably defensible line which is basically this is a set of local elections which include a lot of areas that they aren't traditionally very strong in but did well in under Johnson (which have been delayed due to first covid and then Labour's local government reform). Basically: we've lost seats in areas we had no business having seats.

I've mentioned it before but I really think the Lib Dems may be asking questions about Ed Davey's position soon because with that collapse for Labour and Tories, +57 is very, very poor for the Lib Dems. I'd note that he seems to have pivoted in the last month or so from silly stunts to trying to do more statesmanlike stuff - he did a big speech on defence and the need for an independent nuclear deterrent (quite the shift from a party that previously backed unilateral disarmament). It is difficult to credibly make that type of speech in a wetsuit. But I think it might be too little too late - I also think the Reform/Green line of the other parties being a "uniparty" kind of lands and it doesn't help that Ed Davey was a cabinet minister in the coalition. They've got some very impressive backbenchers - and in my view the Lib Dems do best when they tap into their distinctive heritage and tradition of radical liberalism (e.g. strong and quite distinctive positions on civil liberties, localism etc). Not sure who would replace Davey but I think that route would be worth exploring - simply wanting to say more negative things about Donald Trump is not distinctive enough (especially when you've got Zack Polanski on the scene saying Trump is worse than Putin).

Obviously just catastrophic for Labour if anything like that happens. Councillors are the activist and organisational base of any party so a loss of almost two thousand would, I think, be really profound. Particularly for Labour because a lot of the councils holding elections this year are all the London boroughs and London is Labour's training ground for new MPs. A huge number of the newly elected MPs in 2024 (handpicked by Party HQ) came from the constituency they now represent - but a lot of them then went to Oxbridge, moved into working in charities and NGOs (72 of the 257 new MPs), politics (also 72) or lobbying (70) and the first step to getting picked for a safe seat is to get involved in your local party in London, do lots of campaigning, become a councillor etc and then get parachuted into the safe seat up north that they left as soon as they turned 18. I'm not sure this has been good for the party (see the Greens nominating a great candidate who was local plumber in Gorton and now their MP) but it is a really important part of their infrastructure. (Also I don't seem to be any attempt at expectations management - that's maybe tough when you're about to lose 3/4s of your seats).

So inevitably the leadership talk is escalating. Burnham did an interview with Bloomberg saying the party needs to go on a different course and that he intends to run for Parliament again and declining to say that Starmer should stay after May 7 - also some interesting stuff on defence.

Meanwhile Streeting also apparently getting ready:

Noa Hoffman
@hoffman_noa
EXCL: Wes Streeting has the numbers and is ready to go should a leadership race kick off after locals, friends and allies of the Health Sec tell me

* They say he has the numbers in the PLP

* Briefings from other leadership contenders that he is tainted by Mandelson is rubbish and he will be vindicated by the end of humble address process

* Friends of Wes are extremely loyal and reach far and wide within the Labour movement, including among party members. Many got to know him during student politics days and have stuck by ever since.

* On the briefings that he is tainted by Mandelson, an ally says: 'What rumour could be worse than a tax-dodger?'

I think that last line is an indicator of how nasty this could get - particularly from the Labour right. They previously attacked Burnham for being responsible for grooming gangs (really not sure that's a rock anyone in the Labour Party wants to lift/start throwing around) and now their line of attack on Rayner is "tax-dodger". Plus the soft left attacking Burnham as mates with Mandelson. This is not going to be very comradely (and already feels more personal than any of the Tory leadership fights) and will, I suspect, have the public looking on in absolute contempt FWIW I think that "what rumour could be worse than a tax-dodger" line might hurt Streeting a lot more than it helps.

I think, in fairness, this is a key difference between Labour and Tories - and goes all through Labour Party history whether it's Bevanites v Gaitskellites, Bennites v Healey, Corbynites v the Labour right. The factions in Labour really, really hate each other in a way that I just don't think Tory factions do.

[Richard Hakluyt]

It is an interesting period of flux, I can't help thinking that it may be existential for the Labour party.....the current shenanigans have affected their core vote not just the floaters.

I see John Major has been sticking his oar in https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgepy0xw1nzo

I agree with what he is saying, but think that is a bit like the "pensioners pointing at things they disapprove of" meme; I'm not sure we can return to the way things were done 25 years ago, the question is how bad/good the emerging replacement system will be.

[Josquius]

Labour need to recognise reality and reform the voting system whilst they still have time.

I'm really unsure which way to vote in the local elections. My ward is projected for Deform who are slightly ahead of both Labour and the Greens. I have 3 votes so will probably split 2-1 one way or the other.
I'd love some Green councillors here (in my area thankfully they're not the anti-semitic crazies who have popped up in the news) but really give me a dice to roll and get a Green, Labour, or Lib Dem, or hell, if I get a natural 1 a Tory, then I'd take that over Deform.

Projections for locals I've seen here are quite interesting putting the dread aside with the posher parts looking set to be Lib Dem, the poorest areas being set for Green or Labour whilst its the rather more comfortable working/middle class cross-hatch areas where Reform look like breaking through.
I've been getting tonnes of Reform literature.
They're really keen to push the Labour head of the council being paid 200k as a horrible thing....Despite the reform held council a few miles away's head being paid 240k. I've sent a few bundles of cardboard return to sender.

I've mentioned before I've been thinking of joining the Greens for a while. Apparently they're getting some pretty serious Watermelon problems lately and given the way they let local parties pick candidates... there might actually be value in doing this.

[Sheilbh]

It is an interesting period of flux, I can't help thinking that it may be existential for the Labour party.....the current shenanigans have affected their core vote not just the floaters.

I agree. And I think it is the latest iteration. As I say the challenge is not the Greens, it's the pincer movement of the Greens and Reform (plus the nationalists).

The "Red Wall" areas have been contested since 2017. But if they also lose London, Scotland, Wales, cities, Muslim communities - I'm genuinely not sure what the Labour Party "core" vote is. Who is this party for if it's not the working class, not the regions, not the graduates, not the cities, not Muslim communities? Does it boil down to public sector workers?

I also think the organisational point is kind of key - both in terms of councillors as the foundation of party organisation. They are the people who turn up to every canvassing session, door-knock every weekend, do the admin of constituency parties etc. I think losing that base in large swathes of the country may be irrecoverable. Even putting to one side the particular purpose London councils serve as talent pipeline.

I'm far more reluctant to write off the Tory Party - in part just because it's the most historically successful, adapatable political party in the democratic world. But also I am not sure that Reform can in the long run overtake the resources and organisation of the Tories on the right - Farage is trying to do it but has no history of setting up sustainable party structures. The Greens are a very established party going through a massive growth but they have structures, they have activists, they have an organisation that I think can scale and does not entirely rely on one man.

I'd just note in my area I've had I think one Tory leaflet (which is admirable), one from Labour which I think was actually a mass mailout from HQ, I've had 5-6 leaflets from the Greens. This is a borough that elected 100% Labour councillors at the last election with a party that has an activist base (Lewisham MPs include two recent frontbenchers and Ellie Reeves, Rachel's sister, who was Party Chair). And the message on the Green leaflets is fantastic and clear: "Stop Reform. Replace Labour."

Incidentally one really interesting sign of where things may be going - I've seen some London Tories basically saying in some boroughs (like mine) Tory voters should back Labour to stop the Greens. I wonder if we'll see the same elsewhere and in effect a Macron/Grand Coalition-ification of politics where you basically have the parties from Badenoch on the right and Streeting on the left (with the Lib Dems floating around too) v the "extremes" of left and right. I feel like the choice facing Labour is basically to either go for the permanent Blairite revolution with the Lib Dems (acknowledging that actually their new core vote is basically the same as the Lib Dems), or open the door to a (very) broad left with the Greens.

I see John Major has been sticking his oar in https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgepy0xw1nzo

I agree with what he is saying, but think that is a bit like the "pensioners pointing at things they disapprove of" meme; I'm not sure we can return to the way things were done 25 years ago, the question is how bad/good the emerging replacement system will be.

I agree with a lot of what he says but I also agree I think some (possibly most) of this is structural - and can be observed across Europe. I bang on about it but I think Ruling the Void covers some of the forces here really well.

I'd note on leaderships again that the Labour right are basically briefing that Angela Rayner is a drunk. One line that "Ange is the life and soul of the Party but you wouldn't let her drive you home." Again I think this is going to get nasty. I'm not even sure she wants the top job or will go for it but pre-emptively briefing that she's an unreliable drunk tax dodger is pretty scorched earth by the Labour right who, even if they win, will then have to sit around the cabinet table with her friends and supporters - which doesn't feel like a recipe for stability.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Yes, I do think that the Tories may have bottomed out and may even already have started the process of recovery. The "loss" of Jenrick, Braverman, Zahawi.....people of that ilk....must have got Badenoch reaching for the champagne bottle. Most party leaders have to have a really unpopular purge to get rid of the deadbeats. I expect Reform to do well in the upcoming elections; but holding power reveals the emptiness of their politics and holds them up to scrutiny. We may yet have to put up with a parliament with some hundreds of Reform MPs but I think they will flounder quickly.....more tailwinds for the Tories.

I have no idea who Labour stands for. Definitely not the working class. I have always disliked their authoritarian streak and think many well-off middleclass liberal types feel the same. The attack on Angela Rayner is contemptible and is part of the explanation why they have never had a female leader; there seems to be a dislike of women that does not fit with a supposedly "progressive" party....I daresay many women have noticed this. Whatever the faults of the Tories they have shown that being female or from an ethnic minority is no bar to highest office; and does not freak out the vast majority of voters.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah I don't think Badenoch was just putting a brave face on it when she said "Robert Jenrick is Farage's problem now". I think that was an accurate description and I think the Reform plateauing and drift downwards coincide with those Tory exiles moving over. But I think broadly the fight on the right is over which is the lead party on the right. I think it's likely to be Reform at the next election but there's a route where it's the Tories again.

On Labour I agree - I mentioned it before (because it depresses me) but the single strongest indicator someone voted Labour in 2024 is if they went to public school I also saw today that Labour are the party with the biggest gender-gap (60% men) - I think what you say and historically the Tories have always done well with women voters. But I also think the association with Epstein and someone who trafficked women is really damaging.

I'd add that I think within Labour circles (spads, HQ etc) at times there has been a pretty laddish culture that I think can be pretty unpleasant for people on the outside for whatever reason. I don't want to pin all of our woes on Alastair Campbell but I do think he's a bit of a type within Labour.

[garbon]

Lib Dems said on Laura Kuenssberg that they think there are many people who will vote for them but might not be out on social media. Shy voters, eh?

[mongers]

Lib Dems said on Laura Kuenssberg that they think there are many people who will vote for them but might not be out on social media. Shy voters, eh?

Shysters?

[PJL]

I can see people tactical voting for the Lib Dems both ways, to keep Tory/Reform out on the right and to keep Green out on the left.

[mongers]

I can see people tactical voting for the Lib Dems both ways, to keep Tory/Reform out on the right and to keep Green out on the left.

Exactly.

And that's my choice here.

[garbon]

I can see people tactical voting for the Lib Dems both ways, to keep Tory/Reform out on the right and to keep Green out on the left.

I don't think that in most places the Lib Dems have enough support for that to be a realistic tactical strategy.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah I think in these locals it's not right for them. There's the odd area (like Hampshire and the South-West London boroughs) where they might do well - but the areas holding elections are not particularly friendly to the Lib Dems. The rest of London, some North-East, North-West and West Midlands councils - these are areas that the Liberals last really did well in when Lloyd George was a going concern. In most of them they're also rans and often in fourth or fifth place. You sort of see this in the share of seats parties are defending - Labour are defending over a third of their council seats, the Tories about a quarter and the Lib Dems a fifth.

But I'm also not so sure on tactical voting offering much more hope for the Lib Dems. The Lib Dem operation in 2024 is almost as impressive as Labour in terms of maximising their vote efficiency. They only increase their vote share by 0.6% from 2019 but went from 11 seats to over 70. They really focused their campaign and went less broad spectrum ("bollocks to Brexit") to a far more targeted pitch. But also the context changed. Starmer is nor Corbyn and Jo Swinson signaled being open to working with Labour - which meant that in 2019 she made it a choice of Brexit or Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn for a lot of well-to-do areas that can be tempted to vote Lib Dem. Those areas returned 60+ Tory MPs.

In part I think this just reflects the class/geographical base of the Lib Dems. At a really high level Reform are basically hoping to pick up votes in Labour's traditional northern heartland, the Tory working class areas (like Essex and Kent) plus swing-y areas in the Midlands and the Greens are pushing in university towns and areas with large Muslim communities. With the exception of university towns when Charles Kennedy was around - none of those areas have ever really had a strong Lib Dem vote (the Liberals have a dreadful track record on diversity - both class and ethnicity). I think there's about 5 seats in the entire country where the Lib Dems are facing a plausible challenge from Reform or the Greens. If anything I think the opposite is more likely I think the Lib Dems will very likely hold their own in their Southern and Western heartlands and the occasional Celtic fringe seat, like Caithness and in Cumbria. But outside of that I suspect the Lib Dem vote will get squeezed as they go either for the Tories or Labour to keep out Reform and/or the Greens.

But I also think more broadly I've read a lot of MPs raising concerns about whether Ed Davey has basically reached the peak of what he can achieve. And I get that he has tried to pivot away from the stunts in recent months - but I think it's become a negative after the elections. I mean this was how he started and ended his party conference seech a couple of months ago (from his own social media accounts):
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DV6hNnJCWrY/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igsh=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DV6rgo6Ahbg/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==
The Lib Dems are the only big party that still does a spring conference so very much one for the purists. But it was in this speech that he called for the UK to develop an independent nuclear deterrent - which I think just looks profoundly unserious when book-ended by that (frankly, for someone whose main policy suggestion seems to be that the government should offer a running commentary of how much they dislike Donald Trump - I think the contrast of starting and ending your speech like that and in between calling for nuclear weapons is a bit Trumpy ).