[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Tonitrus]

I don't think China will invade Taiwan anymore. They have too much to lose now that we live in a post attack on Iran world.

I think post-Iran is it even more likely.  Iran is showing lots of relevant weaknesses, and resulting in a US that will withdraw even more inward.

[Grey Fox]

I don't think China will invade Taiwan anymore. They have too much to lose now that we live in a post attack on Iran world.

I think post-Iran is it even more likely.  Iran is showing lots of relevant weaknesses, and resulting in a US that will withdraw even more inward.

USAs weaknesses are also China's.

[Tonitrus]

I would contend that we don't know what China's weaknesses are...they haven't been tested.

I also share skepticism that Taiwan has a "drone swarm" yet ready and available.

[Valmy]

I found this interesting: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0jqfKUnQQk

Will the US acting like assholes force needed reforms in Canada that will save itself from its stagnation? I guess we will see.

[The Minsky Moment]

The probability of a Chinese strike on Taiwan leapt when DJT took office and has been rising ever since.  Biden's stance was as clear as the US has ever been on Taiwan: if the PRC attacked militarily, the US would come to Taiwan's aid, albeit with considerable ambiguity over the precise forms that aid would take.  Thus, the PRC had to worry about a lot more than just Taiwanese drone swarms (whether real or fictive) but also US naval and air power.   With a bunch of thorny dilemmas of how to treat US assets in third countries like Japan.

DJT has strongly signaled in variety of ways that we would not intervene to defend Taiwan and is open to a "deal" that would recognize a PRC fait accompli in Taiwan in recognition for US influence or control over Greenland, Cuba, Canada, or whatever insane brain fart that is clouding his head. He has also made it clear that he has no stomach for any military confrontation with another nuclear power, particularly one that also has the capacity and willingness to placate him with bribe money. That still left the risk that Trump might change his mind in the moment, based on whatever the last guy on Fox News was saying at a given time.  But the Iran war is lowering that risk as well, as Xi observes the pleasant development of the US burning up its munitions stocks at an astonishing rate, while stripping military assets from the Pacific.

[Jacob]

I found this interesting: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0jqfKUnQQk

Will the US acting like assholes force needed reforms in Canada that will save itself from its stagnation? I guess we will see.

Man, I'd love it if we could have some reforms for the cartel like system we have in a number of areas.

[The Minsky Moment]

Canada's economic situation isn't quite as dire as it appears.  Median wages per hour is about the same as the US, maybe a little higher.  US per capita GDP is higher because: 1) US workers work more hours, 2) inequality is steeper in the US so higher earners contribute more GDP, 3) investment and returns on capital in the US are higher.

I'm not knowledgeable enough about Canadian internal policy to comment, but externally, Canadian investment levels are probably negatively impacted by its proximity to the US, a super magnet of global investment funds. Canada's integration with the US economy does place it in the structural position of being a regional "Alabama" trying to compete for investment funds against the big tech and finance clusters of the USA. Domestic pools of capital that might otherwise invest at home are easily drawn away to more exciting opportunities south of the border.  The predominance of the energy sector is  also likely not helpful, through a combination of crowding out and Dutch disease.

[Jacob]

Canada's economic situation isn't quite as dire as it appears.  Median wages per hour is about the same as the US, maybe a little higher.  US per capita GDP is higher because: 1) US workers work more hours, 2) inequality is steeper in the US so higher earners contribute more GDP, 3) investment and returns on capital in the US are higher.

I'm not knowledgeable enough about Canadian internal policy to comment, but externally, Canadian investment levels are probably negatively impacted by its proximity to the US, a super magnet of global investment funds. Canada's integration with the US economy does place it in the structural position of being a regional "Alabama" trying to compete for investment funds against the big tech and finance clusters of the USA. Domestic pools of capital that might otherwise invest at home are easily drawn away to more exciting opportunities south of the border.  The predominance of the energy sector is  also likely not helpful, through a combination of crowding out and Dutch disease.

Yeah proximity to the US has always been a defining part of Canada's economic reality. I'm curious what mix of protectionism and free trade is best for us (and don't have a strong opinion on the topic).

Whatever the ideal situation is there, I'm relatively sure that our various telecoms, banking, and other cartels may be less than optimal; and similarly I think reducing intra-provincial trade barriers is probably worthwhile.

[crazy canuck]

How is banking a cartel?

[Valmy]

How is banking a cartel?

I don't know. There being so few of them is usually not encouraging.

I liked that little part about how the Canadian banks avoided the economic crisis since my Father, who loved banking with RBC and was very conservative in his investment philosophy, frequently cited that 

[crazy canuck]

How is banking a cartel?

I don't know. There being so few of them is usually not encouraging.

I liked that little part about how the Canadian banks avoided the economic crisis since my Father, who loved banking with RBC and was very conservative in his investment philosophy, frequently cited that 

How many banks and other financial institutions that have the same function as chartered banks do you think there are in Canada?

I mean, I suppose you answered that question when you started the first sentence by saying you don't know. But maybe you were just being sarcastic?

I know that your president stated that he thought the banking industry in Canada was a protected cartel of sorts. Back then I explained why that was completely false.   I'm a bit surprised to see that both you and Jacob are falling into line with the Trump's rhetoric.

I had actually preferred to hear from Jacob why he is doing that. It will be instructive to know what is informing the left-wing in Canada to follow the Trump rhetoric.

[Valmy]

How many banks and other financial institutions, do you think there are in Canada?

I mean, I suppose you answered that question when you started the first sentence by saying you don't know. But maybe you were just being sarcastic?

I was responding to the video I posted. That was the first time I had ever gotten any information about the circumstances surrounding the banking sector of Canada...well beyond my father's inexplicable love of the Royal Bank of Canada. If it's wrong, it's wrong.

I did not post that video sarcastically, I am afraid I am not that intimately knowledgable about all the issues facing Canada to be able to post sarcastic videos about it 

I know that your president stated that he thought the banking industry in Canada was a protected cartel of sorts. Back then I explained why that was completely false.   I'm a bit surprised to see that both you and Jacob are falling into line with the Trump's rhetoric.

I posted my source. Nowhere was Trump referenced. Well...ok...but not related to the banking industry part.

[Bauer]

The American trade position often seems to target any industry of regulation as a trade barrier.  There's nothing stopping a bank from becoming chartered banks other than compliance.

Whether or not that regulation needs change is another question, but I happen to think some regulation is essential and Canada escaping recent financial crises is proof of that.

Same deal with dairy.  I don't know the full scope, but it seems logical to have some supply control and stability.

[crazy canuck]

The American trade position often seems to target any industry of regulation as a trade barrier.  There's nothing stopping a bank from becoming chartered banks other than compliance.

Whether or not that regulation needs change is another question, but I happen to think some regulation is essential and Canada escaping recent financial crises is proof of that.

Same deal with dairy.  I don't know the full scope, but it seems logical to have some supply control and stability.

But Bauer, some hedge fund manager said otherwise in a YouTube post. You must be mistaken.

[The Minsky Moment]

I know jack about the structure of the Canadian banking industry, but whatever it is, I doubt it has a huge impact on overall economic performance.

Overall, the median worker is probably better off in Canada because wages per hour are very close but a typical Canadian worker probably has better health coverage.  Higher earners in Canada are trailing behind their US counterparts, but there is a mitigating factor - namely their "US counterpart" may be a Canadian working for a US company across the border.  I.e. the apparent disadvantage to high earning Canadians is offset by the potential for such Canadians to get higher paying jobs in the US if they want to.  Or at least that's how it used to be before NSMAGADAP took over.

So again, taking a broader regional perspective, Canada looks a lot like a US midwestern state (Wisconsin, Michigan) in terms of economic results, but with fewer hours worked and better state benefits.  And like those states, Canada has the issue (good or bad) of ambitious potential high earners moving to the big US tech and finance clusters on the coasts or the sunbelt tax havens in Florida or Texas.

I'm just not seeing a huge structural problem in the Canadian economy.  Yes, domestic investment could be higher and it would be nice to see less emphasis on resource extraction.  Tinkering around with various regulations and industry structures may be good ideas in and of themselves, but that kind of stuff usually has only marginal impact on total economic output.