The EU thread

[Sheilbh]

I'd add that I think the biggest reason to doubt that Russia is deterred is the behaviour of the peripheral EU countries.

They are the countries re-arming most rapidly.

But also just look at thir response to Greenland where Lithuania condemned France's call to consider retaliatory tariff as immediately reaching for the "bazooka" to use against a "partner" (particularly ironic as the retaliatory tariff regime was established in response to China's attempt to bully Lithuania). Polish leaders suggested Greenland was not an issue that should involve the EU. Tusk did not sign on to any of the joint statements by European leaders and explicitly ruled out contributing to any (Danish requested) NATO mission to Greenland. That to me suggests that those countries who are most exposed to the Russian risk feel they need to rapidly build up their own forces, and their best hope is still the US. I'd be reluctant to dismiss that (especially given how many warnings by the Baltic states and Poland were dismissed over the last 20 years when they were right).

I think it also goes to the challenge for the EU around defence and security which is that it's not just about the political will of the leaders. But a real structural problem in building any unified policy is the profoundly different risk/threat assessments and strategic views of different countries/regions.

Edit: Or to frame it another way on Europe/the EU's deterrence capacity - I think there's a reason Ukraine joining NATO is a red line but Russia is willing to accept EU membership.

But depending on how Ukraine ends up, Russia could end up in a position where they have access to Slovakia, Hungary, or Romania. How much would the EU fight to defend those countries? What would European recruitment look like if a destabilized Orban invited Russian soldiers into Hungary?

This slightly reminds me of the Yes Prime Minister bit on using nukes - there's a longer clip, but here on how it might start:

[The Brain]

Europe needs to 1) massively expand its armed forces, and 2) display a willingness to use them. Whether it's Bully Blue or Bully Red, Europe needs to slap bullies who get too frisky.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Europe needs to 1) massively expand its armed forces, and 2) display a willingness to use them. Whether it's Bully Blue or Bully Red, Europe needs to slap bullies who get too frisky.

indeed, and I don't think we're there yet mentally. In general

[Richard Hakluyt]

One thing that concerns me is that we have small stockpiles of very sophisticated weapons that can only be replaced very slowly. This is great for bullying some third world country, cruise missile to the presidential palace, that sort of thing. But it is not suitable for a prolonged war with Russia.

It seems to me that we should look at mass production of second tier weapons that can be replaced at scale in a prolonged conflict.

[Jacob]

So it seems there may be a bit of momentum in addressing social media in the EU.

Several countries are looking to ban social media for under 16s. There's the raid in France. And apparently Spain is potentially passing a law to hold tech CEOs criminally liable for failing to address harmful activity on their platforms.

How is it going to play out?

Is "absolute freedom of speech on social media (as determined by platform owners)" about to be reeled in a bit?

[Tamas]

I would be against this if it wasn't for the fact that the current "absolute freedom" means you are absolutely free to post about anything the platform owners allow you to.

To make that far worse, they all have sworn fealty to a fascist autocrat at the first sign of said autocrat maybe slightly denting their profit margins if they die otherwise.

We simply cannot have this power in the hands of such twisted individuals without accountability.

[Zoupa]

Gut check - how likely do you think Europe is going to get to position where it can credibly deter or defeat the Russians (in a defensive war) after a complete US withdrawal from supporting Europe?

What sort of timeline do you think is realistic?

You can't deter crazy. Defeat though: yesterday. Ukraine is already doing that.

[Legbiter]

You can't deter crazy. Defeat though: yesterday. Ukraine is already doing that.

The EU is whatever. What WILL deter further russian adventurism is a European oldie but a goodie; balance of power. Namely russia's European neighbors will configure their armed forces to make any armed aggression not worth the effort (up to russia getting nuked off the map). The US is actively hostile, on par with China and russia, maybe they just stay as this oversized Latin American country who's busy proscribing the previous Consul and his supporters, pepper in local gunboat diplomacy against their immediate neighbors every now and then. That's the scenario to plan around anyway. Not hope that the next Consul will be friendly.

[HisMajestyBOB]

I would be against this if it wasn't for the fact that the current "absolute freedom" means you are absolutely free to post about anything the platform owners allow you to.

To make that far worse, they all have sworn fealty to a fascist autocrat at the first sign of said autocrat maybe slightly denting their profit margins if they die otherwise.

We simply cannot have this power in the hands of such twisted individuals without accountability.

 

[Jacob]

Another thing I'm wondering about European preparedness. How good are European intelligence gathering and spying capabilities? In Russia, in the US, and in China?

[Legbiter]

German-led NATO contingent marching through Kaunas in a show of strength. Probably have to go back to 1941 to hear German troops marching under the Königgrätzer Marsch there.   

https://x.com/yarotrof/status/2019354668951122238

[Valmy]

It is kind of weird to hear those songs played in the 21st century like that.

I have to say, I know it is freaking February in the Baltic, but I didn't see a ton of esprit de corps there 

[Zoupa]

Wow. They look pretty pathetic. Good. 

[The Brain]

Another thing I'm wondering about European preparedness. How good are European intelligence gathering and spying capabilities? In Russia, in the US, and in China?

I hear British intelligence services only use published sources.

[Tamas]

I have to say, I know it is freaking February in the Baltic, but I didn't see a ton of esprit de corps there