US - Greenland Crisis Thread

[viper37]

MAGA/Fox will characterize this whole episode as Trump flexing American power, and getting a deal on Greenland.  Forget about the fact there is and will never be a deal on Greenland.  On to the next bit of chaos to distract everyone from the Epstein files.

American companies were already exploiting natural resources in Greenland and the US could expand their base anytime their want if they just ask.  It's still the deal they have.  Which is really generous from Denmark, all considering.

[viper37]

Any thoughts on the content of the framework? Status quo ante, with some flowery language for Trump and a bit of graft for his cronies and investment vehicles?

For the telepaths, it's more Babylon 5 departments. 

It only exists in Trump's mind.

[viper37]

I am curious what Mark Rutte is able to negotiate considering he is not an elected leader of Denmark or any EU country.

Rutte specifically denied having negotiated anything, IIRC.  But I can't find it anymore.

[Sheilbh]

Zelensky's speech at Davos is fairly extraordinary - and touches on Greenland. It's worth watching because there's real anger and frustration there about Europe. But I'm closer to his thinking than the Alexander Stubb view:
https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/zvernennya-prezidenta-do-uchasnikiv-specialnogo-zasidannya-v-102517

[Legbiter]

I am curious what Mark Rutte is able to negotiate considering he is not an elected leader of Denmark or any EU country.

Rutte specifically denied having negotiated anything, IIRC.  But I can't find it anymore.

Rutte probably presented the 1951 treaty granting the US carte blanche when it came to military basing as this enormous, amazing breakthrough. No, I'm not kidding I think that's probably what happened.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Zelensky's speech at Davos is fairly extraordinary - and touches on Greenland. It's worth watching because there's real anger and frustration there about Europe. But I'm closer to his thinking than the Alexander Stubb view:
https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/zvernennya-prezidenta-do-uchasnikiv-specialnogo-zasidannya-v-102517

Zelenskyy sees every day the consequence of European fecklessness and weakness.

At the end of the day--no one can make Europeans interventionists. Most Europeans want to live a good life, and don't like the thought of making it even 1% harder to help someone else. That isn't actually that unusual, that's probably close to a very human norm.

While it may rankle--the post-World War II concept of a large power defending a set of values worldwide is likely a historical aberration.

And obviously America didn't arrive at the position altruistically, a unique confluence of events--which included the rise of the Soviet Union and international spread of communism, convinced a lot of Americans that liberal democratic values being promoted globally was both moral and beneficial. Much of Europe actually never did buy into this, Europe was always far more skeptical of the sort of adventurism this worldview created.

Now that the U.S. is likely leaving this space forever, Europeans are seeing that while they were often skeptical of American adventurism, there's some places where they wish the old America was still around to address it. But it isn't, and Europe isn't actually willing to take that place, so has to simply accept things will happen they may not like.

I see little cause for optimism.

The minimalist hope is that Europe can get enough of its head out of its ass to defends its borders without U.S. help, that is very likely not going to be achieved, but hoping for anything beyond that is truly magical thinking.

I'll note that of the many gross impulses Trump feeds--the nativist desire to not help others is actually just the norm Europeans have mostly lived by throughout the post-war period.

[Legbiter]

The minimalist hope is that Europe can get enough of its head out of its ass to defends its borders without U.S. help, that is very likely not going to be achieved, but hoping for anything beyond that is truly magical thinking.

I'll note that of the many gross impulses Trump feeds--the nativist desire to not help others is actually just the norm Europeans have mostly lived by throughout the post-war period.

In the historical context there is nothing more European than having national conscription, high nationalism and very capable military forces. It is trivially easy to rebuild that (boomers die off in the next 2 decades) and it is rapidly being done by numerous European states as I type this. The Americans thinking they can use the current high Western trade integration to prey territorially on us (by "selling" them Greenland at gunpoint for instance) is a geostrategic mistake of immense proportions, but, eh, Trump. Also, I can't think of a worse target to pick a tariff fight with than the EU, aside from subsidizing farmers it is literally a tariff union. So no single nation can be picked on without the whole bloc responding.

[OttoVonBismarck]

But we aren't talking about big European countries defending themselves, we are talking about people like Spaniards, French, and Germans deploying their soldiers to fight Russia. I think it is much more likely they would simply cut a deal. Germany in particular I think would sell out most of Eastern Europe in the blink of an eye, they essentially tried to sell out all of Europe to Russia for 30 straight years until it became unfashionable.

[Legbiter]

But we aren't talking about big European countries defending themselves, we are talking about people like Spaniards, French, and Germans deploying their soldiers to fight Russia. I think it is much more likely they would simply cut a deal. Germany in particular I think would sell out most of Eastern Europe in the blink of an eye, they essentially tried to sell out all of Europe to Russia for 30 straight years until it became unfashionable.

I think the end result will be the countries bordering russia will have their own nuclear deterrent and Finnish-style armies which will completely check any russian revanchism. Those further away will have their own expeditionary capabilities as they see fit. The US will be this regular Latin American country across the pond which will be irrelevant to European security except as a security issue wrt Greenland and the European possessions in the Caribbean and South America. Sometimes a hit song or a movie will travel across but there won't be any deep sense of historic or ethnic solidarity. The American Right will hate us because we won't be some White Wakanda and the Left will hate us because we are evil whites who won't mandate trans surgeries for minors or something. 

[Zanza]

But we aren't talking about big European countries defending themselves, we are talking about people like Spaniards, French, and Germans deploying their soldiers to fight Russia. I think it is much more likely they would simply cut a deal. Germany in particular I think would sell out most of Eastern Europe in the blink of an eye, they essentially tried to sell out all of Europe to Russia for 30 straight years until it became unfashionable.

That's an interesting take on the EU expansion eastwards over the last thirty years that was driven by Germany.