US - Greenland Crisis Thread

[The Minsky Moment]

The Democrats understand it intellectually, but they still keep bringing a spaghetti noodle to a gun fight.

[crazy canuck]

MAGA/Fox will characterize this whole episode as Trump flexing American power, and getting a deal on Greenland.  Forget about the fact there is and will never be a deal on Greenland.  On to the next bit of chaos to distract everyone from the Epstein files.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

lets hope our politicians stay awake and keep growing those brass balls so that next time arrives we can slap him harder

[OttoVonBismarck]

MAGA/Fox will characterize this whole episode as Trump flexing American power, and getting a deal on Greenland.  Forget about the fact there is and will never be a deal on Greenland.  On to the next bit of chaos to distract everyone from the Epstein files.

Right, any deal would be something we've basically already had. We have treaty rights to open something like 16 additional military bases, and Denmark has said all along they are open to expanding it--Greenland is vast and mostly uninhabited so it isn't like they care tremendously if the U.S. builds out more facilities.

And while there could be more discussions needed, I'm pretty sure both Greenland and Denmark have always been open to outside investment in resource industries on the island.

AFAIK the locals are not against any resource extraction, they have been against certain specific projects. But again, it's a big island, a lot of things could be done with little disturbance to the locals. I also think efforts had been made in the past to find investment for resource extraction in Greenland--to no avail. (Likely whatever "deal" happens, will also result in no meaningful investment as private companies won't want to invest in a project that's a guaranteed loss.)

[The Brain]

Denmark didn't care before if the American presence increases. Now any American presence has to be considered hostile.

[Jacob]

Any thoughts on the content of the framework? Status quo ante, with some flowery language for Trump and a bit of graft for his cronies and investment vehicles?

[Crazy_Ivan80]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3fVmSIOM28g

this is the video of PM De Wever repeating the vassal/slave destiny is Europe remains naive. Being used to meek belgian politicians... this'll be a big swallow for a lot of people here (belgium that is).
Now we'll have to see if the actions follow the words...

[Sheilbh]

Seems like Rutte is continuing with the Daddy Trump approach. Just because it hasn't worked at all doesn't mean it won't suddenly start working, I guess.

It's just what he does.

Yep. You responded with hostility and he backed down. That is how it's done. The Canadians get this.

The British and the Democrats are too stupid unfortunately.

To take these together I think this is sort of a Rorschach test.

Here the lesson everyone is drawing is confirmation of the opinion they had on day one which is about responding with hostility and pushing back etc.

At the same time you see others quote Trump's statement and the "very productive meeting" with Mark Rutte. It seems particularly common from German analysts that it was the "quiet" "prudent" diplomacy of Meloni and Merz and Rutte v the populist bluster of Macron that won out. (And I would add that for all the comments about Starmer specifically here - his approach was not somehow unique and aberrant it was the same as Merz, Meloni, Rutte, Tusk etc).

I think both are plausible - and it may well be both. It's not 100% but I also think an element is Trump the reality TV producer - generating conflict to resolve as part of a narrative arc and make great TV.

[Jacob]

So Mark Rutte and Donald Trump has agreed on a framework agreement. It'll be interesting to see what they're talking about, but so far there are no reports on whether Denmark or Greenland has agreed to anything.

[Legbiter]

So Mark Rutte and Donald Trump has agreed on a framework agreement. It'll be interesting to see what they're talking about, but so far there are no reports on whether Denmark or Greenland has agreed to anything.

Mark Rutte is a civil servant in this post. By convention it goes to a North European (just like SACEUR is always an American). He was actually an inspired choice and he has to have the most stressful boiler-room type job in the world.

That said, there's not a chance in hell America "acquires" Greenland without paying the Iron Price at this point. There might be, best case, some sort of window-dressing of the status-quo that allows Trump to declare shart of the deal. The Nordic tripwire forces will remain indefinitely and NATO with America in it is dead because there's not a living soul who believes Americans would ever honor an article 5 activation by a member state at this point.

[Valmy]

So Mark Rutte and Donald Trump has agreed on a framework agreement. It'll be interesting to see what they're talking about, but so far there are no reports on whether Denmark or Greenland has agreed to anything.

I am curious what Mark Rutte is able to negotiate considering he is not an elected leader of Denmark or any EU country.

I imagine he just sat down with Trump and pointed out what anybody with a brain already knew. The US already could do whatever it wants in Greenland for its security. American companies already could do business extracting minerals there. The status quo already gave him everything he wanted.

So I guess he can insist he won some big victory. By gaining nothing we already didn't have.

[Valmy]

That said, there's not a chance in hell America "acquires" Greenland without paying the Iron Price at this point. There might be, best case, some sort of window-dressing of the status-quo that allows Trump to declare shart of the deal. The Nordic tripwire forces will remain indefinitely and NATO with America in it is dead because there's not a living soul who believes Americans would ever honor an article 5 activation by a member state at this point.

All those US military bases are still in Europe. Just saying.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Seems like Rutte is continuing with the Daddy Trump approach. Just because it hasn't worked at all doesn't mean it won't suddenly start working, I guess.

It's just what he does.

Yep. You responded with hostility and he backed down. That is how it's done. The Canadians get this.

The British and the Democrats are too stupid unfortunately.

To take these together I think this is sort of a Rorschach test.

Here the lesson everyone is drawing is confirmation of the opinion they had on day one which is about responding with hostility and pushing back etc.

At the same time you see others quote Trump's statement and the "very productive meeting" with Mark Rutte. It seems particularly common from German analysts that it was the "quiet" "prudent" diplomacy of Meloni and Merz and Rutte v the populist bluster of Macron that won out. (And I would add that for all the comments about Starmer specifically here - his approach was not somehow unique and aberrant it was the same as Merz, Meloni, Rutte, Tusk etc).

I think both are plausible - and it may well be both. It's not 100% but I also think an element is Trump the reality TV producer - generating conflict to resolve as part of a narrative arc and make great TV.

A combination maybe.
Talking softly is more impressive if you're willing to wield the stick.  Something the western Europeans kinda forgot (as if it was cultural ptsd induced amnesia)

[Threviel]

That said, there's not a chance in hell America "acquires" Greenland without paying the Iron Price at this point. There might be, best case, some sort of window-dressing of the status-quo that allows Trump to declare shart of the deal. The Nordic tripwire forces will remain indefinitely and NATO with America in it is dead because there's not a living soul who believes Americans would ever honor an article 5 activation by a member state at this point.

All those US military bases are still in Europe. Just saying.

And in any kind of conflict it would be trivially easy for the Americans to pack up and get out of Europe in a matter of days. The Americans have no credibility and no sane leader would trust them with anything.

We just have to live with the retarded gorilla until we've built up strength enough to kick those fuckers out.