Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Richard Hakluyt]

Don't have much time but it appears that UK railway ticket sales are about £11.5bn per annum. It looks like the £45m loss is for a single rail firm. If the 3.9% is correct and applies throughout the system then the loss is c.£450m per annum. As you say Jos the question is how expensive it would be to reduce this loss.

Jenrick will be using the £45m figure because it looks big and he wants to infuriate fare-paying passengers. It is a common trick by politicians and others who wish to misinform. The general public is essentially innumerate so these tactics often work.

[PJL]

On a similar topic, the right always go on about welfare scroungers, and yes they do cost taxpayers about £10 billion a year, but over £20 billion is not claimed each year, so there is effectifly a net saving for the Treasury of £10 billion. So lack of knowledge is actually a bigger issue than benefits fraud. But of course the MSM never highlights that.

[Sheilbh]

I think it matters - but I think I would resist the urge to view it in a purely liberal/economic way.

On that point though - they lose £45 million from fare dodging. They're currently receiving about £145 million as the subsidy from the state. So it's not an insignificant amount in the context of their budget. On the cost of fixing it I know more about TfL - the cost of fare dodging is about £150-200 million (in the context of a far larger budget). They estimate the cost of measures to prevent fare dodging as being in the realm of £20-30 million.

But as I say I think it is important to consider it socially as well as just economically.

The TSSA, the transport workers' union, is running a campaign on this recently based on some research they've done. Over 90% of TSSA workers have been verbally or physically abused by a member of the public. The overwhelming trigger point is someone not having a ticket and being confronted by someone - often a public sector worker - doing their job. About 40% have required first aid or medical treatment following physical abuse from a member of the public. Again, overwhelmingly the provocation is challenging people not doing what everyone else does and should which is to pay for a ticket. As I say in the case of SWR, these are public sector workers of a nationalised company providing a public service.

I think on the broader picture it is like shoplifting, vandalism, fly-tipping, phone-snatching, bike theft. In that in the grand scheme of things these are "minor" problems. But they are very common, they have an impact at the micro-level whether that's seeing someone get their phone snatched, being in a shop when someone shoplifts (I have a particularly bad personal experience of this) or on a carriage when someone is abusing a worker.

So I think socially it adds to a broader sense of a degraded public realm and of declining social trust. As someone who believes in politics that involve the social and the public I think that's really dangerous. I also worry that you basically will end up with a situation like benefits for public spaces. So in the same way as benefits for the poor very quickly become poor benefits, I think we're at risk of ending up with a public realm that is for people who can't afford alternatives and will end up with an increasingly poor social environment.  On all of these I think people who can afford it will disconnect from the social and just live their atomised lives. Shoplifting doesn't matter when you get everything in parcels or Deliverooed, fare dodging doesn't matter when you'll just get an Uber (or, soon in London, a Waymo), the inability/unwillingness of the police to solve bike theft or phone snatching (the UK represents 40% of all phone theft in the entirety of Europe) when you can pay for insurance firms who hire private investigators (this is becoming increasingly common in London for bikes). But if you don't want that privatised, liberal space - or you can't afford it you'll have to put up with shops looking like banks, security tags on mince etc.

I'd add to that that I think there are common causes here too. So the British Transport Police are currently going through another round of spending cuts and planning to close another 17 stations with 300 fewer officers on the network (again the TSSA is campaigning against this). This despite the evidence from the closure of over 100 stations in London (largely to sell the buildings) and cuts in police numbers which showed an increase in crime, particularly low level crime and anti-social behaviour in those areas (which were overwhelmingly poorer areas). Similarly shops have reduced their staff numbers to focus on the automated checkouts (and the cost of shoplifting has an impact of the price of things too) - this is particularly visible (both the number and the price) in Co-ops where you'll often have one or two members of staff for a pretty big shop who are bearing the brunt of shoplifting. I think you've seen a similar move from staff on trains and in stations to the automated gates at either end and similar results.

I think it's another area where basically people who are willing to break the rules know that chances are they'll get away with it, which leads to more and more rules/obstacles that just make the lives of people who follow them more difficult. I think this is a very general trend in Britain in a lot of areas - and I'd say it's a big part of European regulation at the minute too. In my area which is sort of tech law there are so many laws coming into effect it is incredibly difficult to manage if you're trying to do the right thing and follow the rules. If you've got a healthier risk appetite (perhaps especially if you're based outside of Europe) then the chance of you being caught and enforced against is pretty low - especially if you're not a very famous company (TikTok, Meta, Amazon etc).

[Gups]

Completely agree Shelf. The left should be launching campaigns against fare dodgers and people who steal from public services instead of scoffing just because people like Jenrick are doing it. This is a great example of why we'll lose the next election. Always reactive and always on the wrong side of public opinion.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Faredodging is an affront to the social contract.
A social contract that is breaking down across the board and almost everywhere in the west.

We seem intent on dismantling our high trust societies in return for nothing and virtue signaling.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Completely agree Shelf. The left should be launching campaigns against fare dodgers and people who steal from public services instead of scoffing just because people like Jenrick are doing it. This is a great example of why we'll lose the next election. Always reactive and always on the wrong side of public opinion.

I would like to slag off Jenrick and take action against faredodging...that might be cakeism though?

Anyway, I was going to praise the methods used in Berlin to counter fare dodging (at least when I was there a few years back); essentially, open platforms (convenient for fare payers), teams of hardnosed inspectors (harder to intimidate a group of 6 than a single ticket collector) and heavy on the spot fines for dodgers. But, on looking things up it would appear that fare evasion may even be slightly worse there than in the UK.

It is a niche subject for sure, but if anyone is aware of a cost-effective fare enforcement system I would be interested to hear about what works.

[garbon]

I think on the broader picture it is like shoplifting, vandalism, fly-tipping, phone-snatching, bike theft. In that in the grand scheme of things these are "minor" problems. But they are very common, they have an impact at the micro-level whether that's seeing someone get their phone snatched, being in a shop when someone shoplifts (I have a particularly bad personal experience of this) or on a carriage when someone is abusing a worker.

Do we have evidence that fare evasion is getting significantly worse? This is one thing that I could find to point to it having gotten worse in the past two years:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/fare-dodging-elizabeth-line-tube-london-underground-tfl-b1238000.html

Latest data provided by TfL shows the amount lost due to fare dodgers has risen by almost 50 per cent from two years ago– in part due to people not paying to use the Elizabeth line.

Previously TfL said the amount it lost in unpaid fares was about £130m a year.

But a Freedom of Information response revealed that the cost of fare evasion had increased from "circa £130m" in 2022/23 to about £190m in 2023/24 and about £188m in 2024/25.

Also do we know that people actually think of fare evasion in the same way as those other examples you've given that do have a direct negative impact on others in a neighborhood?

I saw this from yougov last year where you can see the older one gets the more annoyed one is about this issue but only the oldest TfL travellers want people punished even if it isn't make TfL back money.

https://yougov.co.uk/travel/articles/51101-half-of-london-tube-and-train-travellers-say-theyve-seen-tfl-staff-fail-to-challenge-fare-dodgers

[garbon]

Completely agree Shelf. The left should be launching campaigns against fare dodgers and people who steal from public services instead of scoffing just because people like Jenrick are doing it. This is a great example of why we'll lose the next election. Always reactive and always on the wrong side of public opinion.

Wtf? I'm the one who asked if it is a real problem and mentioned Jenrick. I don't know that I'm the monolithic example of the Left and getting it wrong.

I see TfL highlights this when comparing the issue to other places:

https://tfl.gov.uk/info-for/media/press-releases/2025/april/tfl-introduces-new-measures-to-halve-fare-evasion-across-all-tfl-services

Fare evasion is a problem affecting cities around the world. Through the continued efforts of TfL's operational teams and innovations led by TfL's Revenue Protection programme, the rate in London remains lower than many comparable cities in Europe and North America. For example, in New York, the rate of fare evasion sits at 13 per cent on the metro system. The same rate in London would equate to over £400m of lost revenue per year. TfL continues to monitor best practice through regular international benchmarking meetings

I'll add that I was initially annoyed when I saw the news article about SWR because there wasn't any context. No idea if that was a large number that highlighted a disturbing trend or a larger number put out there to convince me that it was a signficant problem.

[garbon]

Faredodging is an affront to the social contract.
A social contract that is breaking down across the board and almost everywhere in the west.

We seem intent on dismantling our high trust societies in return for nothing and virtue signaling.

Fare evasion isn't new.

[garbon]

Anyway, I was going to praise the methods used in Berlin to counter fare dodging (at least when I was there a few years back); essentially, open platforms (convenient for fare payers), teams of hardnosed inspectors (harder to intimidate a group of 6 than a single ticket collector) and heavy on the spot fines for dodgers. But, on looking things up it would appear that fare evasion may even be slightly worse there than in the UK.

While I thought it interesting, I always imagined the Berlin (German?) system would have a higher rate of evasion that they deemed acceptable. I would think no ticket barrier would naturally increase the number of chancers even if when you get caught it is more signficant penalty fine.

[garbon]

The TSSA, the transport workers' union, is running a campaign on this recently based on some research they've done. Over 90% of TSSA workers have been verbally or physically abused by a member of the public. The overwhelming trigger point is someone not having a ticket and being confronted by someone - often a public sector worker - doing their job. About 40% have required first aid or medical treatment following physical abuse from a member of the public. Again, overwhelmingly the provocation is challenging people not doing what everyone else does and should which is to pay for a ticket. As I say in the case of SWR, these are public sector workers of a nationalised company providing a public service.

Thinking on it some more, I think the bigger issue is that members of the public think they have the right to abuse/attack transit workers.

The teens I saw on the DLR who just claimed they had forgot their youth oysters (maybe would have been convincing if 2nd one hadn't stumbled to copy what the first one said) or the woman who just stayed on her phone and refused to engage with the ticket agent were fare dodgers but they weren't violent. It think it is a mistake to conflate the two as while it may be staff abuse is often result of fare dodging, most fare dodging does not entail staff abuse.

[Josquius]

I must say after one incident I witnessed which stuck in my mind where the inspector was particularly rude and threatening to a woman who I'm pretty sure actually had lost her phone.... I do like to mess with them a bit. Give off the signs I'm a fare dodger then present my actual ticket. Just to teach them sometimes its true.

Anyway, I was going to praise the methods used in Berlin to counter fare dodging (at least when I was there a few years back); essentially, open platforms (convenient for fare payers), teams of hardnosed inspectors (harder to intimidate a group of 6 than a single ticket collector) and heavy on the spot fines for dodgers. But, on looking things up it would appear that fare evasion may even be slightly worse there than in the UK.

While I thought it interesting, I always imagined the Berlin (German?) system would have a higher rate of evasion that they deemed acceptable. I would think no ticket barrier would naturally increase the number of chancers even if when you get caught it is more signficant penalty fine.

A quick google shows German evasion is maybe slightly higher, but surely the cost of that will be offset by fewer gates?
But then I'd expect an "open" system would also have more inspectors.
It seems Germany is really strict on evasion with actual jail time for it.

Japan on the other hand was quite the opposite of Germany's open system. Gates at the vast majority of stations except the most rural of the rural (there was a common cheat around this where I was living).
At least 10 years ago, I've heard things have became a bit tighter now, they were very relaxed about it though and you often could get away with showing up at the gate with no ticket, saying you came from 2 stations away, and paying the price of that ticket.
They had machines next to the gate where you could pay the difference if you had a ticket that only stretched part of the way.
I used trains all the time in Japan and only met actual on-train inspectors a handful of times on regular trains- more common on expresses where you need your seat ticket too, there you meet one every time.

The UK seems quite weird in being a hybrid system, with on-train inspectors and gates in some stations. I wonder if this gives best or worst of both.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Luxembourg has no fare evasion at all of course; one of the benefits of making public transposrt free 

That might work for cities in the UK but not for longer distance trains which would just be inundated, those trains do need to be rationed somehow and price might be the simplest way.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Faredodging is an affront to the social contract.
A social contract that is breaking down across the board and almost everywhere in the west.

We seem intent on dismantling our high trust societies in return for nothing and virtue signaling.

Fare evasion isn't new.

And then too it was an affront to the social contract. So I don't see your point

[garbon]

Faredodging is an affront to the social contract.
A social contract that is breaking down across the board and almost everywhere in the west.

We seem intent on dismantling our high trust societies in return for nothing and virtue signaling.

Fare evasion isn't new.

And then too it was an affront to the social contract. So I don't see your point

You are positing that the social contract is breaking down. I would suggest that something that has always been around (fare evasion) isn't evidence of a breakdown unless it is suddenly more rampant than before.

I would also say that the elite (and/or governments) are failing to hold up their end of any social contract. Think about how obeying the rules, working hard does not mean you can have a good life for as wide a segment of society as it once did*.

*I'm also not sure how I feel about 'the/a social contract' as it appears to me that aspects of said contract were how racial/sexual minorities, women, the poor, the disabled were all kept in their places of subordination in the past.