Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Zoupa]

The rationale for not closing the skies over Ukraine gets weaker and weaker.

russia uses DPRK soldiers on the ground. Ukraine should have western jets in the air.

[crazy canuck]

We really should be having scary looking training exercises in Finland. If at least to draw troops from Ukraine

Finland and Sweden did that.  But you are right, all NATO* should also participate.

*We just need to look the other way as the Americans under Trumpist rule find reasons not to participate.

[Sheilbh]

I am starting to worry that Putin has made/coerced Trump into promising to not take action against him provoking European nato countries. The Russians are noticably bolder since the Alaska meeting.

Or he has concluded that Trump only likes bullying/attacking foes notably weaker than him. And that Trump is too chicken to actually stand up to Russian aggression.

Or probing to test the American response- which may have been something Putin got a sense of from Alaska.

[Jacob]

Yeah, it certainly follows the predictions that Russian attacks on NATO would be probing to undermine the faith in the collective response of NATO (and therefore its reason to exist); but minor enough that it doesn't cost Putin much to abandon or deny its purpose.

It that is true, we'll continue to see more such attacks probing NATO unity.

The Russian hope, of course, is that major NATO partners (primarily the US, but even the larger EU nations) end up going "it's not worth it for us to respond to this, you're on your own."

[Zoupa]

I think democracies have a really hard time dealing with hybrid war in general. I remember Theresa May thinking about triggering article 5 following the Salisbury murders. There was less than zero appetite for that, anywhere.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah, it certainly follows the predictions that Russian attacks on NATO would be probing to undermine the faith in the collective response of NATO (and therefore its reason to exist); but minor enough that it doesn't cost Putin much to abandon or deny its purpose.

It that is true, we'll continue to see more such attacks probing NATO unity.

The Russian hope, of course, is that major NATO partners (primarily the US, but even the larger EU nations) end up going "it's not worth it for us to respond to this, you're on your own."

Although if that's the case, I wouldn't start probing with Poland.

Of all the states in Europe, Poland is armed and re-arming and recruiting a far bigger military at speed. If there's one country ready and willing I think it's them

[HVC]

Yeah, it certainly follows the predictions that Russian attacks on NATO would be probing to undermine the faith in the collective response of NATO (and therefore its reason to exist); but minor enough that it doesn't cost Putin much to abandon or deny its purpose.

It that is true, we'll continue to see more such attacks probing NATO unity.

The Russian hope, of course, is that major NATO partners (primarily the US, but even the larger EU nations) end up going "it's not worth it for us to respond to this, you're on your own."

Although if that's the case, I wouldn't start probing with Poland.

Of all the states in Europe, Poland is armed and re-arming and recruiting a far bigger military at speed. If there's one country ready and willing I think it's them

Partition them thrice shame on you, partition them four times shame on them.

[Valmy]

NATO as a mostly European defensive alliance probably works better anyway. You won't have us around to drag into Afghanistan and shit.

[Zoupa]

Yeah, it certainly follows the predictions that Russian attacks on NATO would be probing to undermine the faith in the collective response of NATO (and therefore its reason to exist); but minor enough that it doesn't cost Putin much to abandon or deny its purpose.

It that is true, we'll continue to see more such attacks probing NATO unity.

The Russian hope, of course, is that major NATO partners (primarily the US, but even the larger EU nations) end up going "it's not worth it for us to respond to this, you're on your own."

Although if that's the case, I wouldn't start probing with Poland.

Of all the states in Europe, Poland is armed and re-arming and recruiting a far bigger military at speed. If there's one country ready and willing I think it's them

That's 2022 thinking. Poland has done nothing but downplay the drone incursion. They're not exactly itching to go.

[crazy canuck]

Poland has invoked the NATO charter. That is far from downplaying the attack

[crazy canuck]

We know we are living in chaotic times when a Russian incursion into Poland gets buried in the news cycle

[Josquius]

Yeah, it certainly follows the predictions that Russian attacks on NATO would be probing to undermine the faith in the collective response of NATO (and therefore its reason to exist); but minor enough that it doesn't cost Putin much to abandon or deny its purpose.

It that is true, we'll continue to see more such attacks probing NATO unity.

The Russian hope, of course, is that major NATO partners (primarily the US, but even the larger EU nations) end up going "it's not worth it for us to respond to this, you're on your own."

Although if that's the case, I wouldn't start probing with Poland.

Of all the states in Europe, Poland is armed and re-arming and recruiting a far bigger military at speed. If there's one country ready and willing I think it's them

True. I would fancy Polands chances vs Russia even sans nato.
It is an unusual choice rather than the baltics.
I guess Russia is making a point that this is very deliberate rather than something that can be explained away as accidental?

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Seems a number of those drones were on a direct course to a nato base.
The plot thickens

[Josquius]

A theory I heard this morning that makes a lot of sense- Russia doing this is to push NATO into investing more in its own defence.
If they keep air defence equipment on NATOs border then it won't be going to Ukraine.
Its removing highly important Ukrainian equipment from play without needing to actually destroy it.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Unless at some point nato decides that it might be opportune to protect from inside western Ukraine of course.