Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Sheilbh]

I think we might just mean that in a different way. I was meaning good intentions in a "thoughts and prayers" kind of way.

But yes - good intentions backed by spending more, making it easy to build a factory (quickly) will do it.

[crazy canuck]

Oh, it's balls as in testicules 

I thought it was balls of light 

 

So all this time when you heard the saying that someone had big balls, you thought it meant they were full of light - the world would be a better place if that were true   

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Oh, it's balls as in testicules 

I thought it was balls of light 

both actually.
And given we're talking about arms: might be ball-bearings too.

but Sheilbh captures what I mean more eloquently.
It's something you see currently with the green-steal/deal and how the industrial sector reacts (they're basically saying we're giving the manufacturing part of our economy the neckshot)

[Grey Fox]

Oh, it's balls as in testicules 

I thought it was balls of light 

 

So all this time when you heard the saying that someone had big balls, you thought it meant they were full of light - the world would be a better place if that were true   

 

Only in the context of Euros tho. 

[Josquius]

Honestly when I first read it that was my first interpretation.
#LanguishShit

[Legbiter]

Good overview of the last week or so.

[Tamas]

Ok I cannot take anything seriously that STILL wants to pretend there's thought behind Trump's flailing about. Come on people, 10 years of this shit. Snap out of it.

[Jacob]

Ok I cannot take anything seriously that STILL wants to pretend there's thought behind Trump's flailing about. Come on people, 10 years of this shit. Snap out of it.

If you're involved in European policy making, you kind of have to refrain from going all in on "Trump is a blithering idiot." In this case this is done by saying "either Trump has no idea about the context and what's going on, or he's pretending he doesn't for whatever reason".

Given the focus of the analysis is the possible impact on the war between Russia and Ukraine and not "is Trump fit to be president", I think that's perfectly acceptable.

[Jacob]

Apparently Trump is asking Orban about Hungary's opposition to Ukraine joining the EU.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-19/after-putin-call-trump-rang-orban-over-ukraine-eu-membership

[Tamas]

Apparently Trump is asking Orban about Hungary's opposition to Ukraine joining the EU.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-19/after-putin-call-trump-rang-orban-over-ukraine-eu-membership

Orban's Foreign Minister denied the phone call happened. First time they deny, on any level, of a rumour of Orban talking to Trump. So it is probably true and/or they are worried Putin will be upset Orban talked Ukraine policy without running it past him first.

[Maladict]

Apparently Trump is asking Orban about Hungary's opposition to Ukraine joining the EU.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-19/after-putin-call-trump-rang-orban-over-ukraine-eu-membership

EU membership but no NATO membership, conflict frozen along current lines. Is that the best we can realistically hope for?

[Jacob]

EU membership but no NATO membership, conflict frozen along current lines. Is that the best we can realistically hope for?

I don't know. I think Europe should re-arm at a faster and more robust pace, and massively increase support for Ukraine to beat Russia on the battlefield. Then I think we can hope for more.

Of course, that's easy for me to say.

I do think it's unlikely for Ukraine to join NATO, but it's less unlikely (but still a stretch) for some other defensive alliance to take its place. But there won't be US security guarantees at least until Russian influence in the US recedes, and who knows when that will be. So proper security guarnatees will, IMO, have to be backed by Europe and will require Europe to be in a position to actually deliver on them.

[Josquius]

I don't rate Russias odds of being a threat in the future. They've really screwed themselves with Ukraine on a whole variety of levels.
Short - mid term they're a threat but in the longer term... I'd say the concern is with the vacuum over such a large area they'd leaving.

[Neil]

EU membership but no NATO membership, conflict frozen along current lines. Is that the best we can realistically hope for?

I don't know. I think Europe should re-arm at a faster and more robust pace, and massively increase support for Ukraine to beat Russia on the battlefield. Then I think we can hope for more.

Is that realistic though?  If the US cuts support, it'd take years for Europe to build an arms industry.  Can Ukraine grind that time out against the full power of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, as well as the financial backing of India?

[Jacob]

Is that realistic though?  If the US cuts support, it'd take years for Europe to build an arms industry.  Can Ukraine grind that time out against the full power of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, as well as the financial backing of India?

It doesn't seem overly likely, no; though within the realm of the theoretically possible.