Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[grumbler]

If you attack is going unbelievably well, it's an ambush.

[garbon]

Even assuming there were no secret agreements made, the photo op alone is a huge win for Putin.

Trump has "pardoned" him for his war crimes and accepted him back into polite society.

Similar to his meeting with Kim Jong Un in the first term or his pardons of the January 6th insurrectionists.

Is Kim Jong Un accepted in polite society?

[Razgovory]

I had him over for tea last month.

[The Minsky Moment]

Is Kim Jong Un accepted in polite society?

A meeting with Trump is far from polite society.

[Zanza]

Maybe not polite society, but you are not a pariah anymore when the American president, even the current one, receives you as honoured guest.

[Tamas]

Reports say Trump is on board with Putin's demand to cede the rest of Donbas to him in exchange of a promise not to attack elsewhere. Although the Guardian, eager to assume sanity in Trump's dealings where none to be found, call this a peace, I would like to point out that nothing they quoted mentions the word "peace"

[The Minsky Moment]

Maybe not polite society, but you are not a pariah anymore when the American president, even the current one, receives you as honoured guest.

He certainly joins "very fine" company like Nick Fuentes, Kanye, etc.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah and unlike pardoning January 6 people I'm not sure meeting Kim Jong Un really mattered.

I feel like there's possibly a really interesting book on summit diplomacy. The symbolism (who gets the recognition of the summit, where is it hosted etc), their effectiveness and the differences in all that with routine state visits. Especially with Xi's big commemoration of WW2 this September which Putin is attending and I expect Trump will too which I think is one that might well have Yalta like ambitions.

[Tamas]

So if (or rather, when) this culminates in Trump ordering the US air force to support Russia in achieving their military objectives, will there be a mutiny?

[The Minsky Moment]

I feel like there's possibly a really interesting book on summit diplomacy.

Trump's approach to summit diplomacy is fundamentally different from predecessors.  The usual approach has been to do all the detailed preparatory work in advance - sometimes for years as with Nixon/Mao or Camp David - and then use the summit to choreograph the public revelation of the initiative.

For Trump, the choreography and the show is the end objective in itself.   There is no preparation needed because there is nothing of substance behind the show, because Trump lacks the attention span to achieve such results, and because his staff is wholly unqualified.  It is all a part of Trump model of the Presidency as a reality show.  Today's episode is the big summit with Putin; the ultimate outcome doesn't matter because we will all have moved on and forgotten when next episode airs.

[Sheilbh]

Trump's approach to summit diplomacy is fundamentally different from predecessors.  The usual approach has been to do all the detailed preparatory work in advance - sometimes for years as with Nixon/Mao or Camp David - and then use the summit to choreograph the public revelation of the initiative.

For Trump, the choreography and the show is the end objective in itself.  There is no preparation needed because there is nothing of substance behind the show, because Trump lacks the attention span to achieve such results, and because his staff is wholly unqualified.  It is all a part of Trump model of the Presidency as a reality show.  Today's episode is the big summit with Putin; the ultimate outcome doesn't matter because we will all have moved on and forgotten when next episode airs.

"This is going to be great television."

For sure - I was just thinking it's such a uniquely 20th/21st century form of diplomacy. Perhaps to that (our) era what the Congresses and Conferences of the 19th century were.

From the WW2 ones which, I think, especially initially were dominated by Stalin and then the big Cold War set pieces like Vienna and Reykjavik. And while there was a lot of preparatory work a lot actually seemed to depend on the leaders (again, Vienna and Reykjavik spring to mind). How much of the preparatory work was around the symbolic aspects (neutral ground etc) but would ultimately depend on whether Reagan and Gorby hit it off, or how Kennedy and Khrushchev interacted? For all the preparation and sophisticated (sometimes democratic) state machinery, it feels arguably more personalist.

It seems interesting that I feel like there's been diminishing returns post-Cold War but also I don't really think there's ever been any US-China summits (which would seem to make most sense now). Perhaps just a reflection of the end of the US and USSR basically being so dominant and also, perhaps, a reluctance to treat China on that level.

Perhaps that is what Xi is going to try to institute with his WW2 commemorations, US-China-Russia gatherings.

Edit: And I think Russia absolutely values the images/recognition of summits with the US President.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

Back in the real world, Ukraine is pocketing the salient lol.

[...]

Get wrecked, moskals.

It's a fucking HOI4 move.  Weaken a section of your front line, let the AI break through, then cut off the spearhead and wipe out the pocket.

[The Brain]

So if (or rather, when) this culminates in Trump ordering the US air force to support Russia in achieving their military objectives, will there be a mutiny?

Unlikely. Many in the US military are Republicans. Being subservient to Russia is part of their DNA.

[crazy canuck]

Maybe not polite society, but you are not a pariah anymore when the American president, even the current one, receives you as honoured guest.

I am hearing this line a lot, but it doesn't make much sense.  Who respects what the US does?

[Bauer]

Maybe not polite society, but you are not a pariah anymore when the American president, even the current one, receives you as honoured guest.

I am hearing this line a lot, but it doesn't make much sense.  Who respects what the US does?

I can definitely imagine how inside North Korea or Russia meeting with the president can be framed as a prestige event.  To those countries the illusion of importance is more important than reality.