Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Josquius]

[quote

I wish the idea of the west would transform into a close cooperation of true democracies (and those aspiring to join).

This is what it should do. EU++.
Favourable trade and visa agreements for nations that do well on democracy and human rights.
Less favourable treatment for those who don't.

Though I fear we have let that ship sail quite far away now so it's not quite as tantalising as it may once have been.

[Bauer]

[quote

I wish the idea of the west would transform into a close cooperation of true democracies (and those aspiring to join).

This is what it should do. EU++.
Favourable trade and visa agreements for nations that do well on democracy and human rights.
Less favourable treatment for those who don't.

Though I fear we have let that ship sale quite far away now so it's not quite as tantalising as it may once have been.

Yeah this exactly.  And maybe defense could be cheaper for all if it had a multinational mandate.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

If the "West" is to survive it has to be without the US for the foreseeable future.

there is no 'west' anymore.

Europe will need to find its balls and figure out a way to basically replace american capabilities asap. If Ukraine can mobilise so can we. First order of business needs to be enforcing the sanctions in full and stop buying shit from the russians. It's like fricking buying stuff from the nazis while they're occupying half your country.

they russians may be paying a high price for each km² but they're willing to do so. And as long as they're gaining and not losing ground they'll end up gaining.

[Sheilbh]

I expect the meeting between Trump, Zelenskyy and the Europeans tonight will be a shitshow similar to the last Zelenskyy visit.

The bit I heard seemed relatively good. I think the next step of the "trilateral" between Trump, Zelensky and Putin sounds risky - and I think Macron was right to push on a quadrilateral with Europeans involved immediately after that.

I think the European leaders (with the exception of Merz) seemed fairly well-coordinated on pushing points through the press availability. Particularly Zelensky hailing the "breakthrough" on American involvement in security guarantees, which was picked up on by several notably Macron talking about the European commitment too ad then Starmer praising the "Article 5 style commitments".

Maybe even the end of "the West" as a geopolitical entity depending on how far Trump goes on pushing Putin's agenda.

Edit: But in the end, the Europeans are fairly weak and divided and will cave in again.

I think the Europeans are pretty united on this. But they are weak and no amount of unity or good intentions can magic a military industrial complex or trained soldiers into existence.

I think Europe gets more leverage in the post-war phase because it will be picking up a lot of the bill for Ukrainian reconstruction. I also think that phase is really important as if, after all this, Ukraine ends with a situation where they feel they've not got meaningful security, reconstruction or a clear, quick path into the EU (or some form of association) I think that's potentially very dangerous (and the minimum of what we should do for Ukraine).

[crazy canuck]

I wish the idea of the west would transform into a close cooperation of true democracies (and those aspiring to join).

Yes, and that is why the US must be excluded.

[Iormlund]

Europe will need to find its balls and figure out a way to basically replace american capabilities asap.

It's not a matter of balls.

Europe is a bunch of countries, each with its own interests and priorities. We saw that during the Euro crisis, we see that now.
The only way that changes is evolving into a federation. And it's not happening.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Europe will need to find its balls and figure out a way to basically replace american capabilities asap.

It's not a matter of balls.

Europe is a bunch of countries, each with its own interests and priorities. We saw that during the Euro crisis, we see that now.
The only way that changes is evolving into a federation. And it's not happening.

it's also a matter of balls though: your interests mean nothing without at least some credible hard power. Something too many european countries skimped out on the last 30 years.
Instead we put all our stats in stern-letter-writing and virtue-signalling

edit: made a dumbass your/you're mistake

[Sheilbh]

I don't think balls has anything to do with it.

I'd say I think European politicians got high on their own supply and really believed the stuff about "rules based order" and "human rights" to such an extent that they missed the material basis of that world. Whether that's on defence or energy or ownership of key industrial sectors, none of that really mattered because we're in a rules based order and everyone respects human rights and has the same fundamental world-view.

And I do think it was a generational shift in the late nineties - I think the Blair-Schroeder generation of politicians where that lacuna develops.

[Jacob]

I have no real opinion on when it happened, but I agree that Western Europe collective got too disconnected from the material basis of the world order as you say, Sheilbh.

... but I also think that's more or less what Crazy_Ivan80 means when he speaks about hard power.

[Sheilbh]

I agree - I just don't like the framing of it being around "balls"

My argument for Blair-Schroeder is just that I think that's when the peace dividend really kicks in and also disconnects from Europe's geopolitical aspirations. Plus in Germany intensification of energy relationship with Russia (and economic with China). And in Britain, while Thatcher and Major privatised industries like steel and chemicals they repeatedly blocked them being taken over by foreign companies, because they felt a domestic industry was important - that ends under Blair. So I think it's when the concerns around defence, energy and economics from a real-world/material basis stops being part of European statecraft.

Edit: Obviously - that could be bollocks.

[Jacob]

I agree - I just don't like the framing of it being around "balls"

Balls, hard power... I guess as long as it's some sort of penis related imagery it'll do?

My argument for Blair-Schroeder is just that I think that's when the peace dividend really kicks in and also disconnects from Europe's geopolitical aspirations. Plus in Germany intensification of energy relationship with Russia (and economic with China). And in Britain, while Thatcher and Major privatised industries like steel and chemicals they repeatedly blocked them being taken over by foreign companies, because they felt a domestic industry was important - that ends under Blair. So I think it's when the concerns around defence, energy and economics from a real-world/material basis stops being part of European statecraft.

Edit: Obviously - that could be bollocks.

I expect it's broadly correct. The West won the clash of civilization, so it became time for shareholders to feast on the victorious body, and for reactionary forces to nurture their strength for a play at power.

[Admiral Yi]

I think the Europeans are pretty united on this. But they are weak and no amount of unity or good intentions can magic a military industrial complex or trained soldiers into existence.

Maybe two year lead time on building a munitions factory.  One month for basic training, maybe another month for basic infantry training.  Magic is not required.

[Grey Fox]

Oh, it's balls as in testicules 

I thought it was balls of light 

[Sheilbh]

Maybe two year lead time on building a munitions factory.  One month for basic training, maybe another month for basic infantry training.  Magic is not required.

Sure. But it does mean building the factory, recruiting and training the personnel. It doesn't exist now - and I have, at this point, still not seen much evidence of Europe (Poland excepted) starting to take those steps. And we didn't take those steps two years ago which is why we are where we are.

I really hope it does soon as a matter of urgency. I still think Europe will but I wouldn't bet folding money on it at this point. And I worry it might take a few more crises and humiliations.

[Admiral Yi]

Sure. But it does mean building the factory, recruiting and training the personnel. It doesn't exist now - and I have, at this point, still not seen much evidence of Europe (Poland excepted) starting to take those steps. And we didn't take those steps two years ago which is why we are where we are.

I really hope it does soon as a matter of urgency. I still think Europe will but I wouldn't bet folding money on it at this point. And I worry it might take a few more crises and humiliations.

You said good intentions will not do it.  Good intentions *will* do it.