Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[mongers]

On the subject of Russian vs US/Nato weapons production I found this RFE article interesting:

Is Russia Outpacing NATO In Weapons Production?
July 25, 2025 00:22 CET

By Yauhen Lehalau

Russia is "now producing three times as much ammunition in three months as the whole of NATO is doing in a year," NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently told the New York Times.

RFE/RL and the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT), an open-source intelligence group, analyzed Russian and Western weapons production to assess whether Russia really has such a large production advantage over the US and its allies and in which categories of weapons -- artillery, ammunition, tanks, aircraft, missiles, and drones, and air defense -- each side has the upper hand.

Fact Or Exaggeration? NATO vs. Russian Artillery Shell Production

It wasn't the first time Rutte claimed Russia is far outpacing NATO artillery production. In April he told CBS in an interview that Russia "is producing four times more in ammunition than the whole of NATO is producing in a year."

Ukrainian and Western officials estimate that Russia produced some 2–2.3 million artillery shells in 2024, an increase from an estimated 1.25 million in 2022, as Russia invests in expanding its production capacity.

The US, meanwhile, planned to increase its production of 155mm shells to 1.2 million annually by the end of 2025, with Europe producing approximately the same number -- Germany's Rheinmetall alone plans to produce up to 700,000 per year -- according to conservative estimates.

Actual US production of the shells stands at 40,000 per month, or just shy of half a million per year, for a total of about 1.7 million shells made this year in the US and EU.

For Russia to make three times as much every three months, as Rutte said, its factories would have to produce a massive 20.5 million shells this year.

According to CIT's analysis, Russia's factory expansions in Biysk, Kazan, and other locations may allow it to produce some 4 million 152mm and 122mm shells per year.

Shells Need Guns

Russia still relies heavily on its stock of Soviet-era artillery systems to fire the shells it produces, with reserves of towed howitzers falling from around 12,000 in 2022 to just over 6,000 in mid-2024. CIT analysts assess that the country produces less than 100 new Msta-S, Giatsint-K, and Malva self-propelled howitzers per year.

.....

Full article here, which goes on to look at tank, air defence, aircraft and drone/missile production:

Is Russia Outpacing NATO In Weapons Production?

[Sheilbh]

That pace has been pretty similar for the past 2.5 years though. Russians have shown very limited adaptability to the ground war. They're much more adaptable to drone warfare, unfortunately.

Also I think it's showing again that offence in an inter-state war is very difficult. I've no doubt lots of people from militaries around the world are learning a lot and thinking about how to break it but it feels like we're at one of those points where the pendulum favours defenders.

[celedhring]

Going off a limb, it seems to me the logistics and materiel required to sustain a modern army fighting another are so demanding that it's hard to sustain large-scale operations.

[Josquius]

I disagree on the assessment of Russia winning. Things stay as they are then Ukraine will win. The Russian economy will collapse.

The problem comes with China.
If they decide to prop Russia up then it can survive and it becomes a matter of will power vs the west

[mongers]

I disagree on the assessment of Russia winning. Things stay as they are then Ukraine will win. The Russian economy will collapse.

The problem comes with China.
If they decide to prop Russia up then it can survive and it becomes a matter of will power vs the west

One of the take away from today's conference is many now see China as all in with stopping a Russian defeat; now whether than also translates into pushing Putin to some sort of victory is another matter.

[mongers]

That pace has been pretty similar for the past 2.5 years though. Russians have shown very limited adaptability to the ground war. They're much more adaptable to drone warfare, unfortunately.

Also I think it's showing again that offence in an inter-state most war is very difficult. I've no doubt lots of people from militaries around the world are learning a lot and thinking about how to break it but it feels like we're at one of those points where the pendulum favours defenders.

FYP?

[Zanza]

I don't understand why the West is not ramping up drone production. They seem to prepare for the last war.

[Josquius]

We are aren't we?
I know the UK has donated a fair few drones to Ukraine, the US has been showing some off lately, I've heard talk of Nokia being involved in a Finnish programme etc...
Typical western issue of being plodding and slow but.... There's movement

I disagree on the assessment of Russia winning. Things stay as they are then Ukraine will win. The Russian economy will collapse.

The problem comes with China.
If they decide to prop Russia up then it can survive and it becomes a matter of will power vs the west

One of the take away from today's conference is many now see China as all in with stopping a Russian defeat; now whether than also translates into pushing Putin to some sort of victory is another matter.

What conference?

I have heard the China doesn't want a Russian defeat line before.
I do take this as they don't want regime change in Russia, not that they're eager for a Russian victory.

[Sheilbh]

FYP?

I don't know. Looking at the various war on terror wars and what's happening in Gaza and it seems like the going on the offence bit is not that challenging for states.

I don't understand why the West is not ramping up drone production. They seem to prepare for the last war.

Possibly because at this point they are relatively easy to mass produce and ramp up production? There's less need of a run-in time precisely because we've maybe not got to the point of overengineering them so much that production is a challenge as we have with other weapons systems?

[Sheilbh]

On China the interesting thing to watch there is the emerging backlash in Russia over it.

[mongers]

We are aren't we?
I know the UK has donated a fair few drones to Ukraine, the US has been showing some off lately, I've heard talk of Nokia being involved in a Finnish programme etc...
Typical western issue of being plodding and slow but.... There's movement

I disagree on the assessment of Russia winning. Things stay as they are then Ukraine will win. The Russian economy will collapse.

The problem comes with China.
If they decide to prop Russia up then it can survive and it becomes a matter of will power vs the west

One of the take away from today's conference is many now see China as all in with stopping a Russian defeat; now whether than also translates into pushing Putin to some sort of victory is another matter.

What conference?

I have heard the China doesn't want a Russian defeat line before.
I do take this as they don't want regime change in Russia, not that they're eager for a Russian victory.

Oops, that's what comes of speed reading it was actually from talks held between the Chinese FM and EU officals a couple of weeks ago:

According to EU officials speaking to RFE/RL on condition of anonymity, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas last week that Beijing couldn't accept Russia's defeat in the war as it would free up Washington to focus on China.

The remarkable admission, first reported by the South China Morning Post, came during a four-hour long discussion with Kallas in Brussels that covered an array of topics from trade practices such as state subsidies for electric vehicles, Taiwan, the situation in the Middle East and, of course, the war in Ukraine.

Full article here:
Beijing's Growing Boldness: China's Stance On Ukraine Sparks EU Alarm

[celedhring]

On China the interesting thing to watch there is the emerging backlash in Russia over it.

Oh? Please ellaborate.

[Tonitrus]

I disagree on the assessment of Russia winning. Things stay as they are then Ukraine will win. The Russian economy will collapse.

I think we've been holding on to that hope for too long...and is almost a delusion at this point.   

[DGuller]

Putin can still die.  He's been terminally ill since February 2022, surely he can't have much time left?

[Josquius]

I disagree on the assessment of Russia winning. Things stay as they are then Ukraine will win. The Russian economy will collapse.

I think we've been holding on to that hope for too long...and is almost a delusion at this point.   

With every passing month the problems grow deeper and the efforts to cover them up ever more out there.
For instance they've recently banned reporting of financial data.

Putin shuts curtain on Russia's reality — new law bans disclosure of war and economic data - Euromaidan Press https://share.google/TIEJNtS7pTk3YxtLq