The Israel-Iran War ?

[HVC]

Soon everything will be forgiven and Israel America relations will go back to normal


https://www.instagram.com/reel/DKxXfy5R_aL

 

[Admiral Yi]

https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/25/06/gov2025-24.pdf

10. As previously reported, on 5 December 2024, Iran started feeding the two IR-6 cascades producing UF6 enriched up to 60% U-235 at FFEP with UF6 enriched up to 20% U-235, rather than UF6 enriched up to 5% U-235, without altering the enrichment level of the product.17 The effect of this change has been to significantly increase the rate of production of UF6 enriched up to 60% at FFEP to over 34 kg of uranium in the form of UF6 per month. 

OK, so the IAEA and Mossad are on the same page.  That's useful.

If your position is that the 34 kg of 60% uranium is the only worthwhile target, I don't see how you get there.  That 34 kg took six months to produce.  If the centrifuges needed to enrich to 60% can be replaced relatively easily, the best we can do is slow them down by six months or so, plus however long it takes to get new centrifuges.

[The Minsky Moment]

The reality as I understand it is that Iran has been in a position where they could produce at least one nuclear weapon on fairly short notice for years now.  The policy has not been to build the weapons, but to stop just short.  The policy has been to continue develop fissile material to expand the breadth of the potential "breakout" arsenal, but without actually breaking out.

If this is correct - and its what the IAEA reports suggest - then attacks can do certain things.  They can temporarily slow the buildup of the potential breakout arsenal.  They can temporarily slow the time to breakout by a bit by demolishing facilities and forcing assets to be scattered. But if they don't get the enriched material, the fundamentals of the situation don't materially change.

[Admiral Yi]

But that's my point.  Even if they do get the enriched uranium the fundamentals don't change.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

The policy makes sense.  Iran is at a point that it could build and detonate a Little Boy-style bomb relatively quickly.  The problem is, such a weapon is not a deterrent, it's a big, flashing alert for Israel, the US, and possibly others to throw everything they can get on target at the Iranian regime before they can develop this into a deterrent.  So, in addition to expanding the breadth, I think they are working on better delivery technologies.  I don't think we'll see Iran declare they have a weapon until they have warheads to tip Shahab-3s with.  That's the only way they stop a massive reaction to their joining the nuclear club.

[crazy canuck]

The policy makes sense.  Iran is at a point that it could build and detonate a Little Boy-style bomb relatively quickly.  The problem is, such a weapon is not a deterrent, it's a big, flashing alert for Israel, the US, and possibly others to throw everything they can get on target at the Iranian regime before they can develop this into a deterrent.  So, in addition to expanding the breadth, I think they are working on better delivery technologies.  I don't think we'll see Iran declare they have a weapon until they have warheads to tip Shahab-3s with.  That's the only way they stop a massive reaction to their joining the nuclear club.

Exactly.

A direct US attack sent a strong signal that Iran should make haste to develop that deterrent.  As in so many other things, the US has shown itself to be erratic and unreliable. Abandoning what had been US policy over several administrations does not help.

[The Minsky Moment]

But that's my point.  Even if they do get the enriched uranium the fundamentals don't change.

it puts a more significant dent in the timeline.

But I don't really disagree with you.  I don't think its possible to bomb Iran out of a nuclear capability if Iran is really committed, unless the US/Israel is really comitted to doing it very broadly on a sustained basis.

[Razgovory]

What is to stop Iran from building their centrifuges in a third country, like Pakistan or Russia?  Also, I'm a little dubious on how you can destroy the enriched material.  If it is blown apart, it can just be reassembled.  It wouldn't be chemically changed because a bomb hit the building it was in.

[Admiral Yi]

Here's what wiki has to say about uranium centrifuge production ability.

"Zippe-type centrifuge facilities

    Khan Research Laboratories in Pakistan
    National Enrichment Facility of Los Alamos National Laboratory in the United States
    Urenco Group in Great Britain, the Netherlands, and Germany
    Russia (where it is called Kamenev centrifuge)"

[Jacob]

I would've expected China to have the capability to generate weapons grade nuclear materials (and to construct the equipment to generate it as well).

[Sheilbh]

Full video.

Very authentic, an important leadership quality! 

This, but unironically

I think it's the best thing he's ever said - and the clip is extraordinary for his blunt anger at Israel. US Presidents can really put pressure on Israel when they want. That's a change from the last few years.

Obviously aside from that (and I get the whataboutery) I feel like Obama or Biden showing that level of anger or putting pressure on Israel like that would kick off a huge backlash and probably a fair bit of concern about anti-semitism on the left (which is a thing). While the guy and party who "both sidesed" Charlottesville can, apparently, get away with it.

[Admiral Yi]

@Jacob

"The Zippe-type centrifuge is difficult to build successfully and requires carefully machined parts. However, compared to other enrichment methods, it is much cheaper and is faster to set up, consumes much less energy and requires little area for the plant. Therefore, it can be built in relative secrecy. This makes it ideal for covert nuclear-weapons programs and increases the risk of nuclear proliferation."

There are other enrichment methods.

From the same article. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zippe-type_centrifuge

[Jacob]

[Zanza]

US intelligence reports suggest that the strikes did not destroy Fordow. But the White House only sees these reports as a denigration of Donald Trump.

[Tonitrus]

I guess I should be glad to hear a renewed resounding faith in US intelligence assessments?