The Israel-Iran War ?

[Josquius]

Same.
Most Iranians I've met are huge drinkers and really not in line with the clerics. I recall one telling me absolut vodka was cheaper in Tehran than Sweden.
Not just talking refugees here but lots of people just studying abroad.
I can only meeting one Iranian who was particularly religious.
But obviously yeah. I wouldn't exactly be meeting many Iranians who spend all their time at the mosque.

I get the impression feelings are complex.
The regime is disliked but so is Israel. And from those I'm in touch with at least civilians being killed isn't cool on either side.

[Razgovory]

The ones in the picture didn't seem particularly stressed out about Israel.

[The Minsky Moment]

Pahlavi legitimists have about as much pull in 2025 Iran as Bourbon legitimists in 2025 France.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah - although slightly insane that Reza Pahlavi apparently addressed a bipartisan group in Congress earlier this week. I'd love to know who. Apparently claiming there's a plan already in place for a post-Islamic Republic Iran that won't require US funding or troops.

I get the differences with 2003, but there are also echoes I find concerning.

[Caliga]

I've met a few expat Iranians in my time, never met one who was anything but strongly anti-clerical regime. But that's a very self-selecting population, the vast majority of Iranian expats are expats because of the regime.

My boss is an Iranian exile (though he strongly prefers the ethnonym Persian and often corrects people--he associates 'Iran'/'Iranian' with the current regime).  He insists that if the current government fell, there would be rejoicing in the streets and that most people despise the government, they are just afraid to stand up to it.

His father in law still lives in Tehran and I imagine he's quite worried for his safety at this point.

[Duque de Bragança]

Pahlavi legitimists have about as much pull in 2025 Iran as Bourbon legitimists in 2025 France.

So who has as much pull as the Orléanists in France, in Iran? 

[Valmy]

I've met a few expat Iranians in my time, never met one who was anything but strongly anti-clerical regime. But that's a very self-selecting population, the vast majority of Iranian expats are expats because of the regime.

My boss is an Iranian exile (though he strongly prefers the ethnonym Persian and often corrects people--he associates 'Iran'/'Iranian' with the current regime).  He insists that if the current government fell, there would be rejoicing in the streets and that most people despise the government, they are just afraid to stand up to it.

His father in law still lives in Tehran and I imagine he's quite worried for his safety at this point.

A ton of people do hate the regime and there would be much rejoicing if it fell.

But is it the majority of the people? No idea.

And while the opposition might agree the current regime sucks, who knows if they agree on much else.

[The Minsky Moment]

Pahlavi legitimists have about as much pull in 2025 Iran as Bourbon legitimists in 2025 France.

So who has as much pull as the Orléanists in France, in Iran? 

Farsi speaking Time Cube cultists. 

[Jacob]

Yeah I didn't mean to imply they represented any particular proportion of Persians or Iranians, expatriate or not. It was much more of a "huh, how about that" type thing. I haven't discussed the situation with any of the Persian folks I know, but my assumption lines up with what CC and Josq are reporting from their friends.

My wife and I have some friends where the husband is Jewish and the wife is Persian. When it's come up, it's been clear that they have different perspectives on the Israel-Palestine conflict. I can only imagine that this will be similar for them.

[Razgovory]

Well, Iranian expats and their families supportive of Israel bombing Iran would be like German expats and their families supporting the war against Germany in the 1940's.

[The Minsky Moment]

After WW2, the USA poured billions of dollars in to help reconstruct Germany and provide critical needed humanitarian aid and civil infrastructure.

Somehow I don't think this is included in Israeli postwar planning.

[Razgovory]

After WW2, the USA poured billions of dollars in to help reconstruct Germany and provide critical needed humanitarian aid and civil infrastructure.

Somehow I don't think this is included in Israeli postwar planning.

You think that was on the top of everyone's mind while they went to war?  I'm going to kill all these people, including family members but it's okay cause the survivors occupation government will feed all the survivors?

[Sheilbh]

Again total aside but I'd really recommend Harald Jähner's Aftermath on the immediate post-war in Germany. Covers some of this - including some of the German origin soldiers in all the Western allied armies who played a role in the post-war years (often, but not exclusively, Jewish).

[Admiral Yi]

After WW2, the USA poured billions of dollars in to help reconstruct Germany and provide critical needed humanitarian aid and civil infrastructure.

Somehow I don't think this is included in Israeli postwar planning.

Did we?  I thought Germany was excluded from Marshall Plan support.

[Sheilbh]

West Germany was the third largest recipient - after the UK and France. That's putting aside the huge costs of actually occupying and reconstructing the American sector of Germany as well as dealing with the millions of different categories of displaced persons, even before Marshall's speech in 48 (in fairness often balanced across the UN and with other allied participants - the UK started rationing bread for the first time after the war in order to send food aid to their sector of Germany).