Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Sheilbh]

I agree and I think it's again trying to put the decision point to Putin (which I think is a concerted Euro-Ukrainian strategy).

I expect, again, that Putin will prevaricate and probably refuse. If for no other reason than I think the Russian line on Zelensky makes dignifying him with a meeting with Putin very challenging.

Edit: Incidentally over this conversation and it being a Euro-Ukrainian strategy - the call with Trump. The Europeans may have less relevance/power but are definitely not sidelined:


Also very good after a while of it being Starmer and Macron seeing Tusk (who should always have been there) and Merz at the table. I think Merz's leadership could be transformative if he follows through on infrastructure and defence spending, but even if that doesn't happen I think possibly just a functioning German government would make a big difference right now given that Scholz's government collapsed in November and since then it's been election and coalition formation which has not been great timing

[Josquius]

Putin has wormed his way out of it as best he can. Not a clear no, still posing like he wants peace and we can talk about it in Turkey....
Ukraine then called him on this with zelensky saying he'll be waiting in Turkey personally.
I guess this is going as planned from Europe.
Realistically Putin was not going to just accept a cease fire but he is also a bit more wily than to just say no.

[Legbiter]

Russian delegation is verbatim repeating the same demands as from 2022... Zetniks need at least 2 more years in the oven at least. And Putin seems eager to use the increased manpower who enlisted in hopes of the war winding down in a couple of weeks. 

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Russian delegation is verbatim repeating the same demands as from 2022... Zetniks need at least 2 more years in the oven at least. And Putin seems eager to use the increased manpower who enlisted in hopes of the war winding down in a couple of weeks. 

the moscovites even said that next time they'd demand more regions. only total dismantling of russia will suffice

[Zanza]

The goal here must be to convince Trump that Putin does not respect him. So that more military aid flows to Ukraine. Nothing else can be gained from these talks.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah - I think the Euro-Ukrainian strategy is exactly that. To convince Trump that they're acting in good faith and want a "deal" and that Putin isn't interested.

I think Russia thinks they're winning and will gain more by continuing - and I think Putin doesn't want to make a choice or decide one way or another.

There was an interesting podcast by Mark Galeotti recently on a possible fascist future for Russia post-Putin (or post-war) largely through a reading of some comments Lavrov made in an interview. He views Lavrov himself as an irrelevance but he read the comments as a sign of divides among Russian elites and maybe positioning or that future. In particular Lavrov basically condemned the fifth column of elite figures and "liberals" who can't live without German beer and other Western products pushing for a deal - saying something along the lines of "we see you and we will deal with you".

Edit: Just looked up the episode and from the article (no idea on the punctuation as from a podcast: "Lavrov acknowledged the existence of a fifth column in the ranks of power: 'they will try to roll back all achievements'. Liberal officials give themselves away over US negotiation." "We see you and we no longer pretend not to notice" and "part of the Russian political elite is eager to return everything to the way it was before, who dreams of a 'gas station country' that will provide them with a well-fed and happy existence in the 'civilised West'". 

Further: "we have a powerful group of opinion leaders who believe that lifting sanctions would be disastrous because officials with liberal views would immediately try to roll-back all our achievements in import substitution, sovereignty of our economy, production, ensuring security in those areas on which the development of the state depends. [...] Of course, this entire fifth column suffers from phantom pains. They want to enjoy the views of Lake Como again from their villas, send their children to the most prestigious private schools in Europe, be treated by the best Western doctors while the Russian rabble bent over pumps oil for them, cuts down forest and mines ore. [...] They want to be part of the global world again through the unrestrained exploitation of the Russian people. But this world no longer exists in the form in which it existed before. The pain is phantom. Now, when at least some dialogue with the US has barely begun - they're itching again. The pain has intensified. Officially they are loyal to Putin - nodding to everything he says. Some, even too much so, so that no-one would suspect them. But in reality, they are quietly sabotaging him, trying to destroy the shoots of his achievements [...] bringing Russia to the West on a sliver platter. To say 'look, we're obedient, we're yours lock stock and barrel. Wagging our tails and licking their hands to be let back in the garden of Eden.' [...] Therefore the officials with liberal views or, frankly speaking, the view that we'd be better off under occupation: we'd be able to drink Bavarian beer. This is a real threat. [...] Previously such things were not said out loud and at such a level."

Edit: Also obviously there is positioning and spin going on but via the Economist's reporter Oliver Carroll:

Have an inside view into the Russia-UA talks from a well-placed source. This from Ru delegation head Medinsky says it all: "We don't want war, but we're ready to fight for a year, two, three—however long it takes. We fought Sweden for 21 years. How long are you ready to fight?"
Medinsky continued: "And Peter the Great... you know who financed him? England and France. Sweden would still be a great power today if not for that." I'm told this rhetoric was not unusual in the discussion. So far nothing has been agreed — not even prisoner exchanges.

This line was repeated on Russian TV so clearly a line they're communicating. Another quote from Medinsky: "Maybe some of those sitting here at this table will lose more of their loved ones. Russia is prepared to fight forever."

It was reported the Russian delegation said that if the four "Russian" regions are not recognised, then next time it will be six. Margarita Simonyan - who is very much a Kremlin shill - said that was incorrect: they said next time it would be eight.

[Josquius]

Sounds positive from Lavrov there. Priming the pump for a stab in the back myth. A sign defeat is on the way.
The big question is he saying this to jostle for his own position or at Putins explicit instruction?
Makes sense to chose rich businessmen as a scapegoat from a variety of angles. Though I suppose one of these is the less positive one that it merely let's the Russian state prop itself up with more stolen wealth

Russia are not winning. They'll be in Kyiv in a few centuries at their current rate of advance. It all depends on how deeply trump bends over for them though...


On someone will lose loved ones - the nephew of one of those at the table was killed right after. I wonder if it was coincidence or the Russians knew where he was and planned for it

[Crazy_Ivan80]

if Russia isn't rolled back, in full, they're also not losing though, and they need to lose. Hard.
Keep that in mind.

[Valmy]

From what I understand some nerd beat the Nazi in the Romanian elections yesterday. That is probably good for Ukraine.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

From what I understand some nerd beat the Nazi in the Romanian elections yesterday. That is probably good for Ukraine.

but only just though. 54-46 or something like that. But yeah, that's a good thing

[Josquius]

Weird results with the nazi having a majority amongst expats.
I read an explanation this is because they live in a "virtual Romania", terminally online.
But quite the opposite of what you normally expect.

[Valmy]

Weird results with the nazi having a majority amongst expats.
I read an explanation this is because they live in a "virtual Romania", terminally online.
But quite the opposite of what you normally expect.

Green is nerd
Yellow is Nazi

It looks like the Hungarians voted nerd. I guess a Romanian Orban would have been bad news for them.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

rumours that there are iranian units on the front too now.

[Valmy]

rumours that there are iranian units on the front too now.

And people were worried the West was escalating this to WW3. Russia is bringing in a whole international coalition.

[Sheilbh]

Weird results with the nazi having a majority amongst expats.
I read an explanation this is because they live in a "virtual Romania", terminally online.
But quite the opposite of what you normally expect.

Very specifically Western Europe Romanians:


I think Simion got about 60% of the vote among Romanians in the UK and about 70% in Germany and Italy.

Would love to understand why - have some unbaked thoughts/guesses but it's interesting.