What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[HVC]

Also helps that Harvard endowment is 50 billion.

[DGuller]

I think Tamas hits upon what IMO is a major blindspot on the left:  perception of safety and order trumps democratic ideals.  I think the lesson democracies or Democrats should take is that of you're struggling with those things, you need to address them even if your democracy becomes a little more flawed.  The alternative is fascism, which is an even more flawed form of democracy.

[Valmy]

China has allegedly instructed it's airlines to refuse delivery of Boeing aircraft.

A war where both sides are evil.

And I want my side to lose out of some probably delusional belief it will save my country from self-destruction. Sorry Boeing.

[Valmy]

I think Tamas hits upon what IMO is a major blindspot on the left:

Well anybody who believes in the US Constitution or the rule of law or enlightenment ideas. I hope we at least have a few of those left on the right or center.

perception of safety and order trumps democratic ideals.  I think the lesson democracies or Democrats should take is that of you're struggling with those things, you need to address them even if your democracy becomes a little more flawed.  The alternative is fascism, which is an even more flawed form of democracy.

But how though? We can go on and on about how crime is down but that is hard to counter propaganda of showing scary minorities.

[HVC]

Violent crime is down, but (it appears) that petty crime is up. You don't see a murder everyday, but when you see the same shoplifter week after week you get the impression that crime in general is on the rise. How to fix that, I don't know. What's changed in the last 10 years? Is it just a perception thing. Because, anecdotal as it is, I've personally seen an increase in petty crime. Noticeably so. Hell just go on the subway in Toronto. 

[Valmy]

Violent crime is down, but (it appears) that petty crime is up. You don't see a murder everyday, but when you see the same shoplifter week after week you get the impression that crime in general is on the rise. How to fix that, I don't know. What's changed in the last 10 years? Is it just a perception thing. Because, anecdotal as it is, I've personally seen an increase in petty crime. Noticeably so. Hell just go on the subway in Toronto. 

I don't know if shoplifters are really what gets people ready to ship people off to El Salvadorian concentration camps.

But all I have seen is the both property crime and violent crime are down in the US. But maybe some other category is up that is neither of those things.

I suspect that main reason for this is just the population getting older.

[Valmy]

Also I doubt far right politics has its roots in the large urban areas where you might encounter what you are talking about.

[The Minsky Moment]

36 is still insanely high. It's at 2 now.

But the trend of a sharp and continuous decline from 2016-2019 was already well established; there is no basis to conclude that Bukele or his policies were essential or necessary to achieve further reductions in line with the existing trend.

What is clear is that under Bukele the decline in violence by gangs has been offset by a huge risk in state organized violence.

[HVC]

First link that came up on Google, which is dangerous, but it agreed with me so I stopped looking Council on Criminal Justice

According to NIBRS data, the shoplifting rate was 93% higher in 2023 than in 2019, rising from 159.3 per 100,000 population in 2019 to 308.8 in 2023.

And I'm not saying shoplifting, as an example of petty crime, makes people want to kidnap criminals to El Salvador. That's a leap. Just that higher rates of crime you can see makes the perception that crime in general is up.

[HVC]

36 is still insanely high. It's at 2 now.

But the trend of a sharp and continuous decline from 2016-2019 was already well established; there is no basis to conclude that Bukele or his policies were essential or necessary to achieve further reductions in line with the existing trend.

What is clear is that under Bukele the decline in violence by gangs has been offset by a huge risk in state organized violence.

Fair that the trend was decreasing, but fellow South American states still have higher murder rates. Not South American, but Mexico is at 24, for example as another nation with heavy gang violence. Their democratic means haven't succeeded nearly as well.

Now I'm not advocating for gulaging of all gang members everywhere. Nor that Bukele is the new saviour of El Salvador (he he), just that from the view point of the men and women on the street who endured years of violence I can see why the move was popular and why Bukele is popular. Will the end of the road come out badly? Being South America most likely, but for the time being there's a respite the populace didn't have before.

[crazy canuck]

The it's ok the play footsie with fascists movement is growing.

[The Minsky Moment]

Of course another way to decrease homicide rates through government policy is to stop counting; always tempting for an authoritarian government that controls the information flow.

Marvin Reyes, the leader of the Salvadoran national police union, told Foreign Policy that as the homicide numbers were dropping during Bukele's first years in office, "we began to find more unmarked and clandestine graves where the gangs would bury their victims." Since the start of 2021, at least 171 unmarked graves have been discovered (68 in 2021, 43 in 2022, and 60 in 2023) and entirely left out of the nation's homicide figures.

I.e. as the government pressures the gangs to reduce homicide numbers, they resorted to destroying or hiding the bodies of the victims.

[Norgy]

Of course another way to decrease homicide rates through government policy is to stop counting; always tempting for an authoritarian government that controls the information flow.

Marvin Reyes, the leader of the Salvadoran national police union, told Foreign Policy that as the homicide numbers were dropping during Bukele's first years in office, "we began to find more unmarked and clandestine graves where the gangs would bury their victims." Since the start of 2021, at least 171 unmarked graves have been discovered (68 in 2021, 43 in 2022, and 60 in 2023) and entirely left out of the nation's homicide figures.

I.e. as the government pressures the gangs to reduce homicide numbers, they resorted to destroying or hiding the bodies of the victims.

This.

[Zoupa]

Violent crime is down, but (it appears) that petty crime is up. You don't see a murder everyday, but when you see the same shoplifter week after week you get the impression that crime in general is on the rise. How to fix that, I don't know. What's changed in the last 10 years? Is it just a perception thing. Because, anecdotal as it is, I've personally seen an increase in petty crime. Noticeably so. Hell just go on the subway in Toronto.

It's almost as if as people get poorer, they resort to petty crime. 

Raise salaries.

[HVC]

Taking the highest value, 171 in 2021 that increases the per 100,000 murder rate by 2. Not trying to be obtuse, but how does incarcerating all the criminals not decrease crime ?

Again, not saying it's the right way, nor should it be replicated, and other countries sure as hell shouldn't be sending their own citizens there are some perverse loop whole to due process. you also net up innocents along with murders and violent gang members. Not arguing that point. All bad. Shouldn't be done.