Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Razgovory]

If they are less likely to fight, then they are less likely they are to want to pay for the means to fight.

Any data to back up that assertion?

No, but it does seem like common sense.

[Zoupa]

Cool cool. So we're going with "vibes".

[Razgovory]

Cool cool. So we're going with "vibes".

While many Europeans say they want Ukraine to win, and think that it is not getting enough aid to do so, few back increasing their national contributions

% who say they want Ukraine to win, and care a great deal or fair amount that it does so

Britain 67
 
France 50

Italy 34

Spain 57

% who say they think current levels of aid to Ukraine are not enough to prevent the Russians from winning

Britain 62

France63

Italy 57

Spain 61
% who say their country should increase the support it is giving to Ukraine

Britain 24

France 17

Italy 9

Spain 18

YouGov 2022
Britain: 18-19 February 2025 / Other countries: 25 February - 4 March 2025

https://yougov.co.uk/international/articles/51741-where-does-western-europe-stand-on-ukraine-donald-trump-and-national-defence?utm_source=website_article&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=51741

So a little more than vibes.  It does seem that plurality of Western Europeans would support increasing defense spending, but are little iffy on how to get the funding.

[Sheilbh]

Although worth pointing out UK is contributing more on military (and other aid) as a proportion of GDP than the US - and has committed to maintaining at least current levels. France is very shady on what they give but I think they're probably at a similar level (at least if you include their share of EU aid.

There's a fair criticism of vibes but there has also been very substantial aid, which is ongoing, from across Europe.

Iffy on funding is fair but European countries don't have the dollar - the EU could start issuing common debt which would be transformative for those (or at least Eurozone) countries. Various countries and the EU could start thinking maybe lots of quasi-constitutional rules about fiscal policy wasn't a good idea. But fundamentally policies in Europe cost money that need to be paid for either with taxes, spending cuts or debt (for which there is risk). FWIW I think the absence of that grounding in American is part of the problem for want of a better word in American politics recently.

[Razgovory]

My understanding is the much of the Aid Europe sends is financial aid.  While that is useful, it can't win the war.  What Ukraine needs is military equipment and supplies.  Much of this can't simply be bought, it requires the building of unprofitable factories, something that Europe has dragged it's feet on.  Building those factories would take time, and I don't know how much time Ukraine as left.

Anyway, Western Europe wants Ukraine to win, believes that current aid is insufficient, but sending more aid is quite unpopular.  That appears to be a conundrum.