Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I don't know why Trump seems to think tariffs are good threats.  I can't tell if he doesn't know what a tariff is or he's just trying to trick Americans.

Yes

[Valmy]

I don't know why Trump seems to think tariffs are good threats.  I can't tell if he doesn't know what a tariff is or he's just trying to trick Americans.

Tariffs = lots of jobs. Or at least that is the translation of what Americans hear when he says it I think.

[crazy canuck]

I don't know why Trump seems to think tariffs are good threats.  I can't tell if he doesn't know what a tariff is or he's just trying to trick Americans.

Tariffs = lots of jobs. Or at least that is the translation of what Americans hear when he says it I think.

There was at time, not long ago, when Adam Smith was held up by the right as a great thinker. Those of us who actually read Adam Smith had to explain to our right wing friends that they might be missing the nuances.  But all could agree on the principle that protectionism isn't great.

I wonder how Adam Smith will be taught in the schools of the USA now, if at all.

[Barrister]

Yeah, just the regular global commodities. What is interesting is that this is a threatening message, delivered in a language the russki understands very well. Putin will be expected to kiss the ring as befits his station.

It's a language the Russki understands as weakness because the threats are empty and because the absence of any threat to upgrade assistance to Ukraine is so obvious and glaring that the absence is the message.

I dunno - not like the Russians don't like to make empty threats.

And they did seemed pissed at Trump yesterday.

But like I said - I just don't know.

[The Minsky Moment]

I know that:
(1) a threat to impose sanctions where sanctions are already in place will not impress
(2) no threat without meaningful impact on the military balance will move the needle.

Of course they are expressing public annoyance at the insult, but the reality is that the "threat" was worse than useless because it implies that boosting aid to Ukraine is completely off the table.

[Caliga]

I don't know why Trump seems to think tariffs are good threats.  I can't tell if he doesn't know what a tariff is or he's just trying to trick Americans.

When Trump learns about something, he tends to get fixated on it for a while and endlessly repeat it.  Like during his first campaign I remember Hillary fainted or something and Trump started chanting over and over she doesn't have the "stamina" to be President.  But the first time I heard him say it he pronounced it so weird, like "stah-MEE-na", which lead me to conclude someone had literally just taught him the word, and he liked it and I guess it got a nice reaction from his slobbering idiot fans, so, well, he kept endlessly harping on it.

I know he's known the word 'tariff' for a while, but people really seem to like it when he says it so he just keeps repeating it over and over.  'They tell me' tariffs are a beautiful thing!

[Sheilbh]

FT report on debates within the EU on starting to buy Russian gas again as part of any Ukraine settlement. Apparently the pro side is being led by Hungary and Germany while more pro-Ukraine states (or just neighbours of Russia) are raising red flags about the idea.

You can fully see the argument though. There are real factors like geography, pipelines in place, European reluctance to allow shale exploration in Europe. Although given that I assume Ukraine won't want to become a transit state again and Russia's other neighbours aren't likely to be keen either, no doubt the best approach would be a sub-sea pipe that avoids those states....(First as tragedy, second as farce, third as FFS )

Again I think European concern over Trump is a displacement activity: the capacity to support, or, indeed, betray Ukraine is very much in Europe's hands if we choose to act.

[Zanza]

The EU never stopped importing Russian gas, no?

Nordstream was stopped, the pipeline through Poland was stopped, but the Southern pipeline ran until recently and LNG is at record volume.

[Zanza]

The EU has reduced Russian gas imports by 75%, while only 3% of its oil is imported from Russia, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Jan. 21.

The share of Russian coal in Europe's imports also went from 50% before Russia's full-scale invasion to zero by 2025, she said.

"Our gas imports from Russia went down by roughly 75% and now we import from Russia only 3% of our oil and no coal at all anymore," von der Leyen said.

https://kyivindependent.com/eu-has-reduced-russian-gas-imports-by-75-von-der-leyen-says/

[Josquius]

FT report on debates within the EU on starting to buy Russian gas again as part of any Ukraine settlement. Apparently the pro side is being led by Hungary and Germany while more pro-Ukraine states (or just neighbours of Russia) are raising red flags about the idea.

You can fully see the argument though. There are real factors like geography, pipelines in place, European reluctance to allow shale exploration in Europe. Although given that I assume Ukraine won't want to become a transit state again and Russia's other neighbours aren't likely to be keen either, no doubt the best approach would be a sub-sea pipe that avoids those states....(First as tragedy, second as farce, third as FFS )

Again I think European concern over Trump is a displacement activity: the capacity to support, or, indeed, betray Ukraine is very much in Europe's hands if we choose to act.

Seems reasonable as part of a settlement.. With the understanding this is Ukraines allies giving Russia something it wants and they expect something in return - Russian troops fucking off for instance.

[Sheilbh]

Seems reasonable as part of a settlement.. With the understanding this is Ukraines allies giving Russia something it wants and they expect something in return - Russian troops fucking off for instance.

I suppose that depends on whether you think a settlement at this stage will be permanent, or if fossil fuel trade will help entrench peace/a deal. I'm not confident on either of those.

The EU never stopped importing Russian gas, no?

Nordstream was stopped, the pipeline through Poland was stopped, but the Southern pipeline ran until recently and LNG is at record volume.

That's right, Turkstream is still running - primarily for Hungary and Slovakia I think. Other routes have closed, most recently through Ukraine.

As you say LNG is at record volume - in fact in general imports of Russian gas are at their highest level since the invasion started.

I think VDL's stats on oil are also a little misleading - for example Europe has been importing oil from refineries in Azerbaijan that basically just process Russian crude (the sanctions don't bite on that). So I think the latest estimate was that European imports of Russian oil are about twice the level they were in 2022-3.

I think overall projections for 2025 are that Europe is likely to make over €140 billion of oil and gas imports from Russia, which is higher than levels in 2022. Oil represents about half of that - not just shadow fleet imports, or downstream products but Ukrainian reporters have even identified at least a handful of Russian (largely Panamanian flagged) vessels delivering to European ports.

With coal, part of that must be because there's European production - I can't help but feel it might be worth reconsidering fracking/shale. Also because of the impact of Europe on the LNG market globally which is not good.

My main point though is this was a weakness before the invasion - to Ukraine and to Europe. At this point I don't see any reason to think it wouldn't be a weakness again when a territorially larger Russia looks at its European neighbours again. Maybe if it was Ukraine basically negotiating their terms it would make sense - as it is (especially in the context of Trump taking office) it seems a little indecently hasty and sounds like an example of learning nothing from the last two years.

[The Brain]

Largest support package to Ukraine announced
Published 30 January 2025

The Swedish Government is presenting its largest military support package to Ukraine to date, valued at SEK 13.5 billion. This package will also strengthen Ukraine's long-range capability. Sweden aims to donate about 1 billion SEK towards making Ukraine able to produce long-distance missiles and drones. It also includes a doubling of the previous 16 donated Combat Boat 90s (CB 90) and anti-tank weapons, as well as investments to support Ukraine's defence industry.

With this eighteenth support package, Sweden has provided a total of SEK 61.9 billion in military support to Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion began nearly three years ago.

The package is divided into eight components, the largest of which consists of various procurements of new materiel – primarily from the Swedish and other European defence industries – for the purpose of donation to Ukraine.

The package, worth SEK 13.5 billion in total, contains the following components:

Procurement for donations worth approximately SEK 5.9 billion.
- This means that the Defence Materiel Administration, tasked by the Government, procures equipment from the Swedish and foreign defence industries to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Financial donations worth approximately SEK 2.8 billion.
- This means that Sweden is supporting Ukraine through donations to various funds for procurement of military equipment and ammunition, e.g. through capability coalitions. Another example is procurement cooperation between Sweden and Denmark. Sweden aims to donate 1 billion SEK towards Ukrainian production of long-range missiles and long-distance drones.
Donations of materiel from the Swedish Armed Forces, with corresponding replacement purchases, valued at approximately SEK 3.3 billion. This includes:
- 146 trucks;
- 16 Combat Boat 90s; (A doubling from the previous 16 donated CB 90s)
- 23 weapon stations for marine use;
- 1 million units of 12.7 mm ammunition;
- 1 500 TOW anti-tank missiles;
- 200 anti-tank weapons, including training materiel;
- infantry equipment for individual soldiers and unit equipment; and
- chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) personal protective equipment.
Services via the Swedish Defence Research Agency and Swedish Defence University, valued at approximately SEK 180 million.
- The Defence Research Agency will continue its efforts to develop a corresponding agency in Ukraine.
- The Defence University is tasked with implementing an education programme for Ukrainian pupils in Ukraine.
Training valued at SEK 650 million.
- Funding to the Swedish Armed Forces' support to a number of training initiatives throughout 2025, such as Interflex, which conducts basic training for Ukrainian soldiers.
Supply solutions valued at SEK 400 million.
- This includes various types of maintenance measures for the Swedish materiel that has been donated.

https://www.government.se/press-releases/2025/01/largest-support-package-to-ukraine-announced/

13.5 GSEK is about 1.2 GUSD.

[Admiral Yi]

Nice one Sweden.

[Jacob]

Well done Sweden.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

No agreement with Russia will be permanent. Putin himself has already laid the groundwork to break potential treaties by  calling Zelensky illegitimate, thus rendering treaties with him the same.
Putin can't be trusted, Russia must be defeated decisively. But our politicians are to cowardly to face that thruth