What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[Barrister]

Well, like you said #1 is unimpeded access to the US markets. Ability to have our own criminal code, Quebec (and the other provinces could drop french) english has a official language when local government is concerned. Ability to disband the english schoolboards.

Hydro-Quebec is a big exporter to the New England region but it always gets strong headwind because it's not American. That would fix that.

It would ease economic hardship from Upstate NY to Maine because now without a border Montreal is much closer than NYC/Boston.

Own Criminal Code - this is true as far as it goes.

But in the US a lot of the most important prosecutions are under Federal law.  I mean yes the states still do even the bigger cases up to and including murder, but any of the fancy organized crime kind of stuff all tends to be federal.

A Quebec-in-the-US wouldn't have constitutional guarantees about French.  Do you really think the US congress would stand by and allow English schools to be forbidden in Quebec?

Fully agree on the economic benefits.

[The Minsky Moment]

Canada has been suffering from relatively low levels of R&D spending and investment.  If you look at the Canada-US complex as a linked economy, it appears that high level investment may be going disproportionately to areas in the US. If true, then a decoupling of the two economies - whether by a trade war or otherwise - could be a relative benefit to Canada.*


*As in it may be in absolute loss to both, but less of a loss to Canada.

[Sheilbh]

Feels alarmingly possible a Trump presidency looks successful:



All starting to open in January, no doubt with President Trump willing to cut every ribbon and claim credit

[Grey Fox]

Well, like you said #1 is unimpeded access to the US markets. Ability to have our own criminal code, Quebec (and the other provinces could drop french) english has a official language when local government is concerned. Ability to disband the english schoolboards.

Hydro-Quebec is a big exporter to the New England region but it always gets strong headwind because it's not American. That would fix that.

It would ease economic hardship from Upstate NY to Maine because now without a border Montreal is much closer than NYC/Boston.

Own Criminal Code - this is true as far as it goes.

But in the US a lot of the most important prosecutions are under Federal law.  I mean yes the states still do even the bigger cases up to and including murder, but any of the fancy organized crime kind of stuff all tends to be federal.

A Quebec-in-the-US wouldn't have constitutional guarantees about French.  Do you really think the US congress would stand by and allow English schools to be forbidden in Quebec?

Fully agree on the economic benefits.

Dropping the stuff we agree on.

I really mean schoolboards, not schools. Past threads have shown me Alberta has it as a Protestant/Catholic divide, we have it divided by languages.

[Barrister]

Canada has been suffering from relatively low levels of R&D spending and investment.  If you look at the Canada-US complex as a linked economy, it appears that high level investment may be going disproportionately to areas in the US. If true, then a decoupling of the two economies - whether by a trade war or otherwise - could be a relative benefit to Canada.*


*As in it may be in absolute loss to both, but less of a loss to Canada.

We have definitely been suffering from lack of investment (and resulting stagnation in productivity) for several years now.  Government has compensated by increasing immigration levels which gives businesses more unskilled labour (and increases gross GDP) - but all at the cost of per capita GDP.

Would a "de-coupling" provide a relative benefit to Canada?  My understanding is that while we run a trade surplus with the US in terms of goods, it's a net negative when you include services.

[Barrister]

I really mean schoolboards, not schools. Past threads have shown me Alberta has it as a Protestant/Catholic divide, we have it divided by languages.

We have three sets of schoolboards - public, Catholic and francophone.

But I'll repeat - do you really think the US government would allow a Quebec-in-US to ban English language schooling?  Or even only to ban publicly-funded english-language school education?

[Grey Fox]

I really mean schoolboards, not schools. Past threads have shown me Alberta has it as a Protestant/Catholic divide, we have it divided by languages.

We have three sets of schoolboards - public, Catholic and francophone.

But I'll repeat - do you really think the US government would allow a Quebec-in-US to ban English language schooling?  Or even only to ban publicly-funded english-language school education?

Yes. It's not something I'm personally would aim to do, so I won't spend time researching the How-to.

However, I do not think it would be something they take great offense to. Like they don't in Puerto Rico.

[viper37]

All of Canada as one megastate?  It'd be the ultimate battleground state.

That's the thing - it wouldn't be.  It would be like adding a new California, guaranteeing Democratic victories for a generation.

More like adding a new Washington or New York. Canada isn't really much like California.

Population of California - 39 million
Population of Canada - 40 million

Remember Canada has more land area than the entire United States, so obviously Canada as a whole isn't "like" any one particular state.  But Canada as the 51st state would have the largest population in the union, and would vote reliably Democratic in the short to medium term - and thus would be like California.

I thought you were making a cultural statement

Though, like Canada, California's NHL teams all suck.

The Maple Leafs and the Jets aren't doing bad - outside of playoffs

[viper37]

A fringe Quebec provincial party campaigns on having Quebec join the USA. They believe our invitation still stands to this day.

That invitation was only good while Benedict Arnold's army was invading.

Americans are still coming to Quebec city to this day.  I'm sure there are descendants of Benedict Arnold's army in the lot.

[viper37]

Why would we get the Louisiana treatment?

Probably this:

It's not vastly different than what happened in English Canada at the same time.

[Norgy]

I am all for Canada and the United States of America joining into a large bigly superstate. It'd mean the US get actual social democrats as citizens.

[HVC]

I am all for Canada and the United States of America joining into a large bigly superstate. It'd mean the US get actual social democrats as citizens.

I wouldn't go that far. Our lefties are still right of your lefties... just not as far right as our southern neighbours.

[Norgy]

The NDP is pretty close to our left. We've moved right, most of us. Just not to, well, you know, authoritarian dictatorship right.

[Grey Fox]

There isn't much left left for the left of the Quebec left to go.

Buffalo Buffalo Buffalo English is a stupid language Buffalo Buffalo Buffalo.

[Sheilbh]

From Javier Blas of Bloomberg - this feels like China's opening move:

Javier Blas
@JavierBlas
China bans exports of gallium, germanium and antimony to the US. Beijing says the commodities have "dual-use" military use. The Chinese guidance is a bit unclear, saying the "in principle" ban only applies for sales to "military users."

I think there had already been restrictions in response to Biden's EV tariff. But a significant increase and also increased restrictions on exports of graphite to the US because of "dual-use" risks.