[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Barrister]

A Neil sighting!

My friend - I think I owe you a supper from 4 years ago when some stupid virus from China shut down the world.  Let me know if you're interested (and still in E-town).

[Neil]

A Neil sighting!

My friend - I think I owe you a supper from 4 years ago when some stupid virus from China shut down the world.  Let me know if you're interested (and still in E-town).

I am still.  It'll probably be in the new year though, as I'm departing on a South Seas holiday soon, and by the time I get back it'll be Christmas. 

[Barrister]

A Neil sighting!

My friend - I think I owe you a supper from 4 years ago when some stupid virus from China shut down the world.  Let me know if you're interested (and still in E-town).

I am still.  It'll probably be in the new year though, as I'm departing on a South Seas holiday soon, and by the time I get back it'll be Christmas. 

Nice!

[Barrister]

So Trudeau is handing out cheques for $250 to any person earning under $150k in 2023, plus eliminating the GST on almost all forms of groceries, alcohol under 7% per volume, kids toys, and Christmas trees.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-gst-vacation-christmas-1.7389206

So although I am very much a partisan, I try to look at politics as dispassionately as I can.  And heck - I like free money!  Even though I won't get a cheque, as worded I think my wife will.  Plus no GST on stuff for Christmas is always nice!

But still - the federal deficit was projected to be $39.8 billion - before this giveaway.  The economy is doing reasonably well, so there's not really any reason to fiscal stimulus that I can see.

This does seem like a straight-up vote buying scheme.

Thoughts?

[Neil]

I think the intent is to be seen to do something in the face of current economic struggles on the part of the average Canadian.  The Liberal government is working hard on their optics right now, between this and the new tack on immigration.  They can't move the needle on housing, but this is something that they can do that might bump them in the polls. 

That said, I think it's already too late and the Trudeau brand has already turned sour. 

[crazy canuck]

I think the intent is to be seen to do something in the face of current economic struggles on the part of the average Canadian.  The Liberal government is working hard on their optics right now, between this and the new tack on immigration.  They can't move the needle on housing, but this is something that they can do that might bump them in the polls. 

That said, I think it's already too late and the Trudeau brand has already turned sour. 

Yes, and that also explains the GST holiday they announced, for a limited time starting Dec. 15.  We have reached the stage of desperate performative politics.

[viper37]

I think the intent is to be seen to do something in the face of current economic struggles on the part of the average Canadian.  The Liberal government is working hard on their optics right now, between this and the new tack on immigration.  They can't move the needle on housing, but this is something that they can do that might bump them in the polls. 

That said, I think it's already too late and the Trudeau brand has already turned sour. 

Yes, and that also explains the GST holiday they announced, for a limited time starting Dec. 15.  We have reached the stage of desperate performative politics.

So... which one of you is buying that PS5 Pro on Dec 15th?

[Barrister]

Apparently the tax holiday will cost $1.6 billion, while the $250 cheques will cost $4.6 billion.

Look - it would be one thing if the Government had a one-time windfall for some reason.  Alberta has sent cheques a couple of times when there's a one-time surge in oil prices.  It's still not a wonderful policy (we'd be better off just putting the money in the Heritage Savings Trust Fund) but it's kind of defensible.

The Federal Government is not having a one-time windfall.  This money is just going to be borrowed and added to the debt.  It's just bad public policy - and likely to increase inflation.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/gst-holiday-what-you-need-to-know-1.7390054

[crazy canuck]

Apparently the tax holiday will cost $1.6 billion, while the $250 cheques will cost $4.6 billion.

Look - it would be one thing if the Government had a one-time windfall for some reason.  Alberta has sent cheques a couple of times when there's a one-time surge in oil prices.  It's still not a wonderful policy (we'd be better off just putting the money in the Heritage Savings Trust Fund) but it's kind of defensible.

The Federal Government is not having a one-time windfall.  This money is just going to be borrowed and added to the debt.  It's just bad public policy - and likely to increase inflation.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/gst-holiday-what-you-need-to-know-1.7390054

Agreed, if anything, Trudeau is demonstrating why he has got to go.  This is not the government. This is desperation.

The fact that his caucus is going along with, this means that even if they were to change leaders at the last moment, it's way too late. The whole lot has to be tossed out.

[Neil]

The caucus is just displaying the quality of the average parliamentarian.  These are thoroughly mediocre people, and they know that their personal qualities and stances are largely irrelevant to their electoral futures.  They are entirely dependent on the party leader to keep them employed.  Most voters vote for a leader, and even more politically astute people don't vote for a leader, but for a colour. 

I mean, there's something to be said for leveraging the unlimited borrowing capacity of the country to help out people in an emergency.  That's what we did during the Covid panic.  However, there is no emergency here.  This is just the result of years and years of bad policy, coupled with an international economic environment that is becoming more hostile to Canada.  And any good that such a small sum would do for Canadians is likely to be swallowed up in the rate hikes (or slowing of rate decreases) that the BoC will engage in to fight the inflationary effect of the cheques. 

It's bad, cynical policy, either trying to buy votes or poison the well for the next government. 

[crazy canuck]

I doubt Trudeau understands that what he is doing is actually harmful to the people he wants to dole the money out to. And so, even if he was thinking further ahead than the next round of polling results, which I don't think does, he lacks the capacity to realize he is further poisoning the well for the next government.

Same for the NDP, who will support this. 

[Neil]

Jagmeet Singh's first order of business is making it to 2025 so that he can secure his pension.  Other than that, the only thing that he seems to do anything other than make generic NDP noises over is the whole India-Khalistan argument, which is a pointless argument for any Canadian to involve themselves in. 

[crazy canuck]

I don't think he is worried about his pension.  He is in the safest NDP seat there is.

He is just bad at politics

[Grey Fox]

Permanent GST break has been a NDP objective for years now. Singh feels that a partial break is worth forcing the Cons to do their job in parliament.

[crazy canuck]

Permanent GST break has been a NDP objective for years now. Singh feels that a partial break is worth forcing the Cons to do their job in parliament.

I am pretty sure permanent removal of the GST on all things is a new policy