[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Grey Fox]

Can't convince Singh to kill the government right now & I don't think Trudeau will hear any of this. Dude thinks, rightfully, that he saved the Liberal party & therefore Canada, he's not going to start election earlier than force to.

But you know, there is no scenario where I think Housing Millhouse has a PM is something I want to live in.

[HVC]

I read an article, can't find it now, basically saying Trudeau in 2017 did a pretty good job at gathering support across party lines to lobby the US to not screw over Canada, and with the CUSMA agreement they did pretty okay.  But it's hard to see the parties coming together in such an effort right now with a looming election.

So you're saying that the conservatives would be willing to screw over Canada to get one over on Trudeau and we should reward them by putting them in power sooner?

[Barrister]

I read an article, can't find it now, basically saying Trudeau in 2017 did a pretty good job at gathering support across party lines to lobby the US to not screw over Canada, and with the CUSMA agreement they did pretty okay.  But it's hard to see the parties coming together in such an effort right now with a looming election.

So you're saying that the conservatives would be willing to screw over Canada to get one over on Trudeau and we should reward them by putting them in power sooner?

I think the Conservatives would say that it would screw Canada over much more for them to voluntarily give up and hand the Trudeau Liberals another mandate at this point.

Because really my #1 point is that we'd be better off right now with a right-wing government, but that the fallback #2 of a Liberal government with a fresh mandate would still be preferable to another year of lame-duck Trudeau.

[HVC]

I think Mr P. will win. Whether that's a good thing, I doubt it, but you play with the cards you're dealt. The contention that he'd damage canada to win doesn't add more browny points to his legacy. In which case scenario 2 because all the more preferable (though still unlikely).

That being said, I don't think Poilievre would have any more luck then Trudeau. Trump doesn't care about canadian politics or its economy.  What would make a difference is the opinion of border states. And they don't care who leads canada either, since any support they would give would be out of self interest not as a kind gesture to a canadian PM.

[Barrister]

I think Mr P. will win. Whether that's a good thing, I doubt it, but you play with the cards you're dealt. The contention that he'd damage canada to win doesn't add more browny points to his legacy. In which case scenario 2 because all the more preferable (though still unlikely).

That being said, I don't think Poilievre would have any more luck then Trudeau. Trump doesn't care about canadian politics or its economy.  What would make a difference is the opinion of border states. And they don't care who leads canada either, since any support they would give would be out of self interest not as a kind gesture to a canadian PM.

Stop me if you've heard this before, but Trump is very mercurial, and driven by personal grievance.

There's long been a suggestion that Trump does not like Trudeau:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/tom-mulcair-donald-trump-has-a-long-enemies-list-and-prime-minister-justin-trudeau-is-on-it-1.7100238

(just as one example)

YOu suggested above:

So you're saying that the conservatives would be willing to screw over Canada to get one over on Trudeau

That attack works just the same the other way.  If we're stuck ion a year-long election campaign until fall 2025, the Liberals best attack on Poilievre is to link him to Trump.  I think I used the phrase "call him a maple-flavoured Trump".  I think that attack is probably his best line of attack - Trump is not popular in Canada.  But wouldn't that mean Trudeau is screwing over Canada in order to get one over on Poilievre?  Trump is not going to be impressed if he's constantly attacked in Canada by the sitting Prime Minister.

[crazy canuck]

I actually prefer to do lots of business by mail. Email is so janky these days. So much important stuff gets put in the junk email folder or gets lost in all the junk that gets through to my inbox. I just cannot trust it.

So if you want me to pay a bill or whatever, please mail me some dead trees.

Most electronic bill paying is not done through email.

I don't pay by mail. I pay online. But the bills I pay I ask to be mailed to me. Otherwise shit gets lost, there is just too much electronic garbage out there for me to keep track of it.

Can't you set up etf payments at the websites of the places that bill you?  We pay our utilities, local taxes, etc that way.  It's much more convenient and you don't have to keep a paper copy of your transactions.

[Valmy]

I actually prefer to do lots of business by mail. Email is so janky these days. So much important stuff gets put in the junk email folder or gets lost in all the junk that gets through to my inbox. I just cannot trust it.

So if you want me to pay a bill or whatever, please mail me some dead trees.

Most electronic bill paying is not done through email.

I don't pay by mail. I pay online. But the bills I pay I ask to be mailed to me. Otherwise shit gets lost, there is just too much electronic garbage out there for me to keep track of it.

Can't you set up etf payments at the websites of the places that bill you?  We pay our utilities, local taxes, etc that way.  It's much more convenient and you don't have to keep a paper copy of your transactions.

I do with the ones that are predictable and monthly. But annual bills and things like tolls I need a bill to review before I pay them.

[viper37]

Because really my #1 point is that we'd be better off right now with a right-wing government, but that the fallback #2 of a Liberal government with a fresh mandate would still be preferable to another year of lame-duck Trudeau.

I think both are horrible governments.

But for the first time in my life, I think there is something worst than a Liberal government.

And this makes me very sad.

PP is a populist that keeps spouting nonsense and has no economic vision.  Worst, unlike past party leaders, he surrounds himself with yes-men rather than people who could challenge him and his vision.  Any kind of critical sense is gone from this party.  I guess he's going to revive his Bitcoin nonsense now that it's up again.

[viper37]

Irwin Cotler, former Justice Minister, was subject to an assassination attempt from Iran foiled by the RCMP and CSIS.

Not much else is known at this point and Mr Cotler has denied an interview request from the media.

The G&M has a full coverage of the affair.

Mr Cotler is the current President of the Raoul Wallenberg Center for Human Rights.
His daughter is a former member of the Knesset.

[Josephus]

Mr Cotler is the current President of the Raoul Wallenberg Center for Human Rights.
His daughter is a former member of the Knesset.

I realize it might be obvious, but worth mentioning he is Jewish.

[viper37]

Mr Cotler is the current President of the Raoul Wallenberg Center for Human Rights.
His daughter is a former member of the Knesset.

I realize it might be obvious, but worth mentioning he is Jewish.

Yes, I forgot to specify this. Thank you.

He is active in denouncing Iran and vocal in his support of Israel, particularly against Iran.

Either they wanted to target him for that, or they wanted to indirectly attack his daughter, imho.

[Barrister]

Mr Cotler is the current President of the Raoul Wallenberg Center for Human Rights.
His daughter is a former member of the Knesset.

I realize it might be obvious, but worth mentioning he is Jewish.

I didn't know Cotler was Jewish before today, but yes - after Viper's post it was obvious.

[crazy canuck]

Measles outbreak in NB.  80% are unvaccinated under 19.  Docs figure we are seeing the result of the COVID era anti vax movement.

[Barrister]

So yesterday Premier Smith fired the entire board of AIMCo.  This is the fund that manages both Alberta's government pension funds, plus our Heritage Savings Trust Fund.  Apparently it supervises $160 billion worth of assets.  Which includes my pension.

Now reports are out that she wants to appoint none other than Stephen Harper as chairman of AIMCo.

https://financialpost.com/fp-finance/stephen-harper-potential-head-aimco

So, I have thoughts.

First of all I weirdly have some level of experience on managing a large investment fund.  Back in 1999-2000 I was the law school representative on student government.  Given that most of student government is a bunch of 18-20 year old undergrads, being a 24 year old 3rd year law student gives you a lot of clout so I was chairman of the finance committee (and of the counsel as a whole).  Being Finance committee chairman also gave a seat on the board of the U of Manitoba Endowment fund - not just student government, but the university as a whole.  No idea how much money it was worth in 1999, but in 2024 they have a hair over $1 billion.

So anyways, my experience really was that we hired professional money managers, they seemed to know what they were doing, so we went along with it.  (Just to be clear it was myself and the President as student representatives - most of the board were much older).

AIMCo has done alright for itself.  They haven't beaten the market, but few actively-managed funds do.  The CPP investment board doesn't.

So not quite sure why Smith fired the board.

And then - Harper?

The Chairman of the Board isn't going to be a full-time position.  Unlike the U of Manitoba it has enough under management it probably has its own staff, rather than just rely on someone else.  Harper as a former economist (and former PM!) is not unqualified to serve as a chairman, but is hardly going to be doing the nitty-gritty of day-to-day management.

So what's going on?

You have to think this is coming back to separating Alberta from the CPP.  Which was part of the "firewall" letter Harper signed back when he was the head of the NCC, before he became Prime Minister.  It was an idea floated by Smith, but then kind of hidden during the last election campaign.  I don't think it has much popularity in the province.

If an Alberta Pension Plan is formed, AIMCo would be in charge of it.

So curious to see what happens from here.

Rumour is true - Stephen Harper new chairman of AIMCo.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/stephen-harper-appointed-chairman-of-alberta-investment-management-corporation-1.7388582

[Sheilbh]

Relevant-ish to that and interesting (to me and only me) Canada-learnings in the UK.

Following on from work started by previous government, sounds like Labour is planning to reform public pension funds on Canadian lines (hope is to encourage investment in the UK). Currently we have lots of public pension funds with absolutely loads of assets under management but they're very, very fragmented. So the plan is to consolidate them on the Canadian model with the hope it'll prompt private sector investment in the UK (particularly in infrastructure projects because that type of asset is apparently quite attractive to pension funds but very few really have the type of scale needed).