Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Sheilbh]

I've been very, very surprised that he still hasn't gone to Kyiv. I think that was Sunak's first foreign trip as PM - I think some were already penciled in for Starmer but I'm surprised it's still not happened.

I think Starmer got a little burned by saying that the UK support Ukraine using missiles for strikes in Russia and then having to walk that back immediately following pressure from the US.

[Josquius]

I think the problem is we've already given them what we can. We don't really have any excess to spare. And as said in the article pointless for starmer to be a tourist, he has to bring something.

[Admiral Yi]

I think the problem is we've already given them what we can. We don't really have any excess to spare. And as said in the article pointless for starmer to be a tourist, he has to bring something.

You can send more money.  You can build more stuff to send.

[mongers]

Seems Russia has gained a big morale boost from their victory in the US and has launched a big offensive. Ukrainian front line has possibly collapsed.

What, for sure?

[Josquius]

A big offensive seems pretty much certain.
Ukraine crumbling.... That's obscured. Some commentators mentioning they've heard it but nothing certain yet.

I think the problem is we've already given them what we can. We don't really have any excess to spare. And as said in the article pointless for starmer to be a tourist, he has to bring something.

You can send more money.  You can build more stuff to send.

Even if that decision was definitely made and put into action with all obstacles disappearing in a puff of smoke this minute it'd be years before Ukraine gets anything.
America has the supplies to hand. Europe doesn't

[Syt]

Meanwhile: https://www.politico.eu/article/pentagon-north-korean-troops-pornography-vladimir-putin-russia-war-in-ukraine/

US can't confirm Putin's North Koreans are 'gorging on pornography'

Report about soldiers' extracurricular activities in Russia received a Pentagon response.

The Pentagon late Tuesday said it was unable to confirm reports that North Korean troops are taking advantage of their more expansive internet access in Russia to consume copious amounts of online pornography.

U.S. Department of Defense spokesperson Maj. Charlie Dietz said he couldn't verify "any North Korean internet habits or virtual 'extracurriculars'" taking place in Russia, saying the Pentagon is only concerned with the "more serious" aspects of the North Korean military relationship with Russia as it wages war on Ukraine.

"As for internet access, that's a question best directed to Moscow. Right now, our attention remains on supporting Ukraine and addressing the more significant regional security concerns," Dietz said.

His comments came in response to a report, first posted to social media by Financial Times commentator Gideon Rachman, that North Korean troops are "gorging on pornography" thanks to their newfound online freedom.

While internet access is not unfettered in Russia, it is freer than in North Korea, one of the world's most restrictive countries.

North Korean troops deployed to assist in Russian President Vladimir Putin's war on Ukraine toward the end of October, sparking global concern about the escalation of Russia's all-out assault.

[Syt]

Shocked, shocked!, I tell ya!

https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/11/07/russia-houthis-targeting-data-war-western-shipping-gaza/

Russia Is Running an Undeclared War on Western Shipping
Supplying the Houthis with targeting data crosses every red line of maritime law.

Russia—and China—had seemed to benefit from the Houthis' attacks on shipping in the Red Sea because the militia spared their ships. But it turns out that Moscow has been more than a passive beneficiary. As the Wall Street Journal recently reported, Russia has been providing the Houthis with targeting data for their attacks. Now that Russia has crossed this red line of actively aiding attacks on Western shipping, other hostile states may start sharing military-grade data with proxies of their choice.

One of the U.N. Security Council's five permanent members is actively supporting attacks on global shipping. It's a stark violation of the maritime rules, which grant merchant vessels the freedom and right to sail not only on the high seas but also through other countries' waters and through internationally recognized straits without having to fear, let alone experience, acts of aggression.

The Houthis, you'll remember, began their campaign against merchant vessels in the Red Sea last November, when they struck a string of vessels linked to Israel, supposedly in support of the people of Gaza. When the United States and Britain, and then the European Union, intervened in support of shipping in the Red Sea by sending naval vessels to protect merchant ships (of all nationalities), the group began attacking ships linked to these countries, too.

And so it has continued. Each month, the group launches a handful of attacks against ships in the Red Sea. Mostly, the Western naval vessels manage to thwart the attacks, but several merchant ships have been struck, and two of them have sunk. But bar a Russian shadow vessel struck—probably accidentally—this May, Russian and Chinese vessels have been spared.

The group has been so successful thanks to missiles and sophisticated drones provided by Iran. Having high-performance weaponry, though, brings little benefit if one strikes the wrong target, and the Houthis lack the technology that would allow them to discern a ship's coordinates. That's where, it has now emerged, Russia has turned out to be a most useful ally.

Russian coordinates have thus helped the Houthis keep up their attacks even as Western naval vessels have been trying to foil them. "Targeting covers a wide range of complexity," said Duncan Potts, a retired vice admiral in the U.K. Royal Navy. "Hitting a static target on land can be as easy as using information on Google Maps. At the other extreme, you have mobile entities like ships at sea. Hitting them requires much higher-grade, precise, real-time targeting data that uses information from different sources. Such targeting is quite complicated even for Western navies."

Since ships are mobile, the targeting data typically needs real-time information. Though details of the data provided by the Russians are naturally unavailable, it's highly likely that real-time data is included. Either way, Potts said, "this development is certainly significant and notable, but it doesn't surprise me."

The fact that Russia is giving the Houthis specific information about vessels' exact presence in the Red Sea is making this strategic waterway even more dangerous for Western-linked ships. "If you're a Western-linked merchant ship traveling through the Red Sea with whatever naval escort is available, you'll not be signaling your position by using AIS [automatic identification systems, a maritime GPS]," said Nils Christian Wang, a retired rear admiral and former chief of the Danish Navy. "That means the Houthis would struggle to know what ships are arriving and where they are, so this data would be extremely useful." (Western naval forces in the Red Sea escort vessels regardless of their flag registration and country of ownership.)

It's not exactly clear what kind of targeting data the Russians have been providing. "The Russians might help the Houthis get the right maritime picture to make sure they don't hit Russian ships, but they may also be providing data to help the Houthis hit Western targets," Wang said. "It's one thing to give data to help protect your own ships, another to give them data that help them attack Western ships."

Either way, the group's attacks have already caused a dramatic drop in traffic in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal to the north. Between May 2023 and this May, traffic through the Suez Canal plummeted by 64.3 percent, the Egyptian newspaper Al-Mal reported. The number of ships transiting the canal monthly dropped from 2,396 in May 2023 to 1,111 this May.

Most Western-linked vessels instead sail around the Cape of Good Hope, but this entails an additional 10-12 days' sailing and a 50 percent cost increase. Only a small number of Western shipping lines and insurers still dare to send their vessels through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea—but Western naval vessels have to remain there to provide some degree of order. In recent months, the Houthis have been attacking these ships, too.

Russia's provision of targeting data may be followed by yet more support for the Houthis. According to Disruptive Industries (DI), a U.K. technology company that specializes in the closed-source discovery of global risks, there is extensive and unseen Russian activity in Houthi-held parts of Yemen, and there has been for some time. (Full disclosure: I'm a member of DI's advisory board.)

Sharing targeting data is directly participating in a conflict. That's why Western nations have refrained from sharing targeting data with Ukraine, a nation defending itself against an invader. In September, Russian President Vladimir Putin himself weighed in on the issue. Western approval for the use of Western-provided long-range missiles that could strike Russia would mean involvement in the conflict because Western military personnel would have to provide the targeting data. "It is a question of deciding whether or not NATO countries are directly involved in a military conflict," Putin told Russian state television.

By that point, Russia was already sharing targeting data with the Houthis.

"The Houthis' attacks are certainly in line with Russia's desire to remove the world's focus from Ukraine," Wang said. "One almost gets the suspicion that this is part of a manuscript. It's so much in Russia's interest to have these attacks happen."

Now that the Kremlin has crossed this red line in the Red Sea without being punished for it, it may decide to share targeting data with other nonstate outfits. So may other regimes. Imagine, say, a Chinese-linked militant group in Myanmar or Indonesia targeting merchant vessels in nearby waters aided by targeting data from the People's Liberation Army Navy. Western governments, shipping companies, and underwriters will need to pay close attention.

For now, the continuing strikes against Western vessels present a massive risk for Western-linked merchant vessels in the Red Sea and the Western naval vessels that are there to protect shipping. And the discovery that Russia is providing targeting data could convince the few remaining Western shipping lines still sending vessels through the Red Sea to give up on it (and the Suez Canal) altogether. One of the oldest routes of modern shipping could be abandoned—until Russia and the Houthis are bought to heel.

I'm sure Trump, Hegseth and Musk will have a stern talk with Putin and get this sorted out and clarified.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Biden and the others in europe will surely send some stern words but do nothing more.
Molluscs, the lot of 'em

[Valmy]

Biden and the others in europe will surely send some stern words but do nothing more.
Molluscs, the lot of 'em

Haven't we been actively attacking the Houthis?

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Biden and the others in europe will surely send some stern words but do nothing more.
Molluscs, the lot of 'em

Haven't we been actively attacking the Houthis?

How does that stop the Russians? They'll just use another vector to spread their malicious influence.
Eliminating the houthis is good, putting the Russians back in their outhouse is better

[Sheilbh]

I'm sure Trump, Hegseth and Musk will have a stern talk with Putin and get this sorted out and clarified.

But if you're Trump, why would you care? It's a trade connection above all between Europe and China. I think there is a very cold, transactional question (which Trump will definitely of ask) of why the US is paying and using its force to keep that route open and Europe-China trade cheap?

It's a bit like Ukraine generally. We've known there's a possibility this could be coming for some time and ultimately we have the world's 3rd, 6th, 7th and 8th largest economies - if they want to, they are capable of providing regional security.

Edit: I do find Trump's win very depressing and concerning, but from a European perspective about defence and security specifically it does feel like that bit in Austin Powers with the steam roller slowly, slowly approaching and the henchman not getting out the way.  The fact that after 2016-20, with all that's happened, European leaders decided we could, once again, pin our entire security architecture on the voters of crucial Waukesha County is not great.

[celedhring]

I'm sure Trump, Hegseth and Musk will have a stern talk with Putin and get this sorted out and clarified.

But if you're Trump, why would you care? It's a trade connection above all between Europe and China. I think there is a very cold, transactional question (which Trump will definitely of ask) of why the US is paying and using its force to keep that route open and Europe-China trade cheap?

It's a bit like Ukraine generally. We've known there's a possibility this could be coming for some time and ultimately we have the world's 3rd, 6th, 7th and 8th largest economies - if they want to, they are capable of providing regional security.

Edit: I do find Trump's win very depressing and concerning, but from a European perspective about defence and security specifically it does feel like that bit in Austin Powers with the steam roller slowly, slowly approaching and the henchman not getting out the way.  The fact that after 2016-20, with all that's happened, European leaders decided we could, once again, pin our entire security architecture on the voters of crucial Waukesha County is not great.

To be honest, there's a lot being done in defence in Europe at the moment. Guy I know is pals with an executive from a Spanish defence company and his take right now is "that there's more money coming than projects ready to go". It will just take time to rebuild internal capacities - I'm more worried about whether we can keep the impetus.

[Syt]

I'm sure Trump, Hegseth and Musk will have a stern talk with Putin and get this sorted out and clarified.

But if you're Trump, why would you care? It's a trade connection above all between Europe and China. I think there is a very cold, transactional question (which Trump will definitely of ask) of why the US is paying and using its force to keep that route open and Europe-China trade cheap?

It's a bit like Ukraine generally. We've known there's a possibility this could be coming for some time and ultimately we have the world's 3rd, 6th, 7th and 8th largest economies - if they want to, they are capable of providing regional security.

Edit: I do find Trump's win very depressing and concerning, but from a European perspective about defence and security specifically it does feel like that bit in Austin Powers with the steam roller slowly, slowly approaching and the henchman not getting out the way.  The fact that after 2016-20, with all that's happened, European leaders decided we could, once again, pin our entire security architecture on the voters of crucial Waukesha County is not great.

Yes, but it's also a vital shipping route for Israel which Trump seems to be eager to please.

[Sheilbh]

I don't think it's vital - it's important for Israel's trade with China, so from what I read the area that's been most hit for Israel is import of EVs.

Most of Israel's trade is still through Mediterranean ports (and its energy from Azerbaijan via Turkey). The Red Sea trade for Israel is relatively small compared to the Med (the port isn't connected to the freight railway system for example). I think the port was intended to be massively redeveloped to become a big hub after the Abraham Accords as Israel would start trading with Saudi and the Gulf States regularly. But I'm not sure how realistic they are any more.

[The Minsky Moment]

The fact that after 2016-20, with all that's happened, European leaders decided we could, once again, pin our entire security architecture on the voters of crucial Waukesha County is not great.

We'll see soon whether it is any safer to rely on the voters of lower Saxony.