[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[HVC]

The people I worked with in Sask seems pretty conservative. But then again North Battelford, though a city (town?), isn't exactly an urban environment.


Also, Regina is a cesspool. Saskatoon is nice though. The area by the river is beautiful. At least where I stayed.

[Barrister]

The people I worked with in Sask seems pretty conservative. But then again North Battelford, though a city (town?), isn't exactly an urban environment.


Also, Regina is a cesspool. Saskatoon is nice though. The area by the river is beautiful. At least where I stayed.

North Battleford is 100% not urban.  Population 19,000.

I'm biased because I grew up in Saskatoon, but "cesspool" is much too harsh for Regina.  But yes the South Saskatchewan River valley is nice in Saskatoon, and Regina has nothing equivalent.

[HVC]

had the best Ukrainian style cabbage rolls in Saskatoon.

Yeah, North Battleford was pretty small. I still liked it. Had a charm of its own and the hotel was friendly (shout out comfort inn). Had decent food choices too, for its size.

I only went to Regina once, so maybe I caught it on an off week. Visited Saskatoon and NB thrice. The drive between them had so many dead deer and happy crows

[Barrister]

had the best Ukrainian style cabbage rolls in Saskatoon.

Yeah, North Battleford was pretty small. I still liked it. Had a charm of its own and the hotel was friendly (shout out comfort inn). Had decent food choices too, for its size.

I only went to Regina once, so maybe I caught it on an off week. Visited Saskatoon and NB thrice. The drive between them had so many dead deer and happy crows

Holoptsi!

So I mean if you liked NB then I don't want to change your mind.  I used to "do my job" on just the other side of the border, so I have talked with "people who do my job" out of North Battleford, and it has a very high crime rate.

And no - depending on where you stayed in Regina it can be a hole.  But I could say the same about Saskatoon too.  Nieither town's downtown is a place you really want to visit.

[HVC]

had the best Ukrainian style cabbage rolls in Saskatoon.

Yeah, North Battleford was pretty small. I still liked it. Had a charm of its own and the hotel was friendly (shout out comfort inn). Had decent food choices too, for its size.

I only went to Regina once, so maybe I caught it on an off week. Visited Saskatoon and NB thrice. The drive between them had so many dead deer and happy crows

Holoptsi!

So I mean if you liked NB then I don't want to change your mind.  I used to "do my job" on just the other side of the border, so I have talked with "people who do my job" out of North Battleford, and it has a very high crime rate.

And no - depending on where you stayed in Regina it can be a hole.  But I could say the same about Saskatoon too.  Nieither town's downtown is a place you really want to visit.

Oh yeah, I'm under no delusion that it's not rough around the edges our dually was stolen, used in a crime, and set on fire my first week there (after we had just bought the company). But, I don't know it just tickled my fancy as a place. People were great too.

[Josephus]

Isn't Neil in Saskatchewan?

[Barrister]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-party-ad-campaign-1.7368291

So an article about how Liberal MPs are complaining that they're getting killed by Conservative negative ads. 

In 2023, the Liberals spent just $381,346 on advertising, a figure easily dwarfed by the $8,542,867 the Conservatives spent that year, much of it on TV ads.

The figures for 2024 are likely to show much the same, as the Liberals have essentially ceded the TV ad space to their main opponent.

Anyways, Liberals are promising some kind of advertising response.



But here's another article. dated July 31:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-conservative-fundraising-federl-party-1.7281306

Conservatives in second quarter of 2024 raised more money than all other parties combined.

The Liberals raised nearly $3.8 million in the second quarter of 2024, an increase from the nearly $3.1 million raised in the first quarter.

Most of those donations came in before the Liberals' stunning late-June byelection loss in a long-held Toronto riding, so the impact is unclear.

WATCH | Conservative breakthrough in Toronto seen as message to Trudeau, Liberals:

Conservative breakthrough in Toronto seen as message to Trudeau, Liberals

4 months ago
Duration3:31
A Conservative byelection win in a Toronto stronghold is being seen by many as a message to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberals that it's time for major change in the party and who leads it.
The Conservatives continue to bring in more money than all the other parties combined, although their fundraising fell from nearly $10.7 million during the first three months of the year to just over $9.8 million in the second quarter.

The New Democrats raised nearly $1.3 million in the second quarter, a decrease of about $55,000 from the previous quarter, while the Bloc Quebecois raised just under $322,000, about $21,000 less.

So it's not quite clear to me if the Liberals have the resources for a massive advertising blitz.

It's worth noting that during the formal election period (aka after the writ has dropped) there are tight rules on political advertising, but those rules don't apply pre-writ which is probably why there are so many Conservative ads right now.  But parties also need to make sure they have enough resources for the writ period first and foremost.


Going back to the first article:

While it's difficult to say if these ad campaigns have given Poilievre a boost, last summer's TV ad did coincide with a notable uptick in public support for the Conservatives.

The party started posting higher numbers in opinion surveys in late July, August and September of last year, before moving higher still in 2024.

Political advertising is ubiquitous in the U.S., especially in the swing states that will decide the presidential election. There's a reason for that.

A 2021 study of nearly twenty years worth of television advertising in U.S. elections found "the larger a candidate's advantage in advertising compared to their opponent, the larger their share of the vote."

With respect - I wonder if this is mixing up cause-and-effect.

Is it:

A: Candidate has more money->Candidate spends lots on ads->Candidate becomes popular?

or

B: Candidate is popular->Candidate raises lots of money->Candidate spends lots on ads?

Because you can think of outliers to either narrative.  Going off the US (which has many fewer rules on election spending) there have been candidates with tons of money who failed to gain any traction.  Jeb Bush in 2016  primaries, or Michael Bloomberg's 2020 Presidential campaign.

Or on the other hand candidates who spent relatively little money who did quite well - Trump in 2016, or maybe NDP under Layton in 2012 - heck actually Liberals in 2015.

(Just speaking about Trump - in 2016 his campaign was very disorganized, and both raised little money and spent little money.  His campaign in 2024 is quite different).

[crazy canuck]

There has been a lot of research done on this point.  As an aside,  one of the leading experts is a prof at UBC who we had as an expert witness in one of our election spending constitutional cases. 

As I told Oex in the US election thread, the consensus is that generally election spending has minimal or no effect on election outcomes.  There is some effect on low information voters related to how they form their initial opinions.  But once a voter has a preferred choice, and particularly when they are a member of a party, election spending has no effect on how they vote.

The messages of the campaigns mean much more than amount spent.  And that is the thing the Federal Liberals are not understanding.  They are not low in the polls because people are convinced by PP's negative ad campaign.  For large amounts of Canadians it is despite the fact they hear PP spout nonsense every once in a while.

[Oexmelin]

I am unsure about that consensus, as I have read in multiple recent studies that it continues to have an effect. I may be wrong.

In any case, my point about money wasn't simply about air time or even simply messaging, but about what money can buy: teams, call centers, signs, campaigns, etc.