Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Crazy_Ivan80]

a new week, a new attempt at nucleair blackmail.
russia needs to sink into the sea, it'll be better for everyone.

[Grey Fox]

And Sullivan still wants to manage escalation because we gotta keep doing business with the enemy.

[grumbler]

Thanks, Sav. I'd forgotten how obvious and unfunny Bloom County really was.

[viper37]

starlink found in Russian drones by Ukrainian army.

[Legbiter]

Orthodox purity seals. No really, the russki military equipment company Ratnik just launched these. With Psalm 90 in Church Slavonic.

[Josquius]

This really is turning into Warhammer 40k isn't it.
Confirmed; Putin is already long dead?

[Tamas]

I do wonder if the Russian people ARE indeed still deeply religious after a generation of communism, or it's the aristocracy assuming they are.

[Josephus]

Probably the ignorant people in the rural areas still are, but not the Muscovites or Petersburgites.
Russia's weird that way. You step a few miles out of the main urban areas and you're literally in early 19th century Russia with chickens running around houses and babooshkas in head scarves.

[Josquius]

I expect for those who aren't there's a lot of performative "cultural Christianity" too.
This is Russian identity et al.


Things don't sound good In ukraine

VUHLEDAR WILL FALL TODAY

The frontline news is pretty dire at the moment. I wonder quite what can be done to improve it.
Kursk has run into the scenario I agonised over when it was first launched - it's all very well taking the land but then you have to defend it.
Right now the Ukrainian forces are not doing a good job of that, they are outmanned and out equipped and they are loosing ground at an alarming rate. They've lost almost 35% of the captured territory. Their offensive into Glushkovo has failed to make any progress worthy of the name. We have to face facts, the Russians have done far better far more quickly than anyone gave them credit for being able to organise.
The Pokrovsk salient expunged its biggest weakness - forcing Ukraine to cede a huge tranche of land in its southeastern corner before they were encircled.
The situation at Vuhledar has worsened so fast and dramatically that according to the mapping the only two evacuation roads left are already under Russian fire control. Ukrainian forces must evacuate if they haven't already done so, or risk encirclement. The town came under blistering attack from the air making it untenable.
I'm not going to sugar coat this for you.
Right now the war is going very badly for Ukraine. The best thing that could happen today is massive rainstorm that doesn't stop for a week and turns the whole front into a muddy bog.
It's the only thing that's going to stop further Russian advances.
And yes it is that bad.
And just in case you thought it couldn't get any worse, yesterday the last $5.4 billion was released to Ukraine of American aid from the May $60 billion aid package.
It had to be released because the money must be spent by Dec 20th as Congress finally managed a temporary government funding bill which expires that day and republicans wouldn't agree on an aid extension.
Another $2.6 billion in industrial aid to initiate programs inside Ukraine to provide its own equipment was also released.
That's the end of the aid until a new administration is installed on Jan 20th 2025. It also depends on who then controls the senate and the house. If Trump wins there will be no more.
It's now down to Europe to keep the supply of weapons up. Especially ammunition.
The aid package did include a refurbished Patriot system and missiles. In addition a number of MWRAPS, shells and training for more F-16 pilots. The rest is mostly ammunition and spares, small arms, armoured engineer units and so on.
I'll be frank, Ukrainian command decisions have been wrong. Deep problems inside the command of frontline forces have been a major cause. The failure to properly mobilise the population for some esoteric notion, that while admirable in itself is simply inappropriate in the circumstances, has left insufficient combat forces in the frontline.
Ukraine is not yet defeated. Not by any means, because its frontline troops are outstanding and brave men and women.
But these bad decisions and a refusal to address command issues are making things worse.
I watch some of the video reporting various aspects of the war. One American and very popular channel that's contributed greatly to understanding the war for many has simply become so pro-Ukraine it doesn't report anything bad. It's like it isn't happening.
One of the most consistent analytical channels has become so disillusioned that it's stopped daily frontline reporting because it's so unpalatable, and it's become difficult to keep up with the changing situation.
I know it's been a bit gloom and doom today but we have to understand - it is bad. Telling you what you want to hear isn't the best way of understanding what's happening.
The question now is how does Ukraine manage the situation in the coming months and how does Europe step up?
And importantly- does the massive loss of ammunition Russia suffered finally impact the front and make a difference?

'The Analyst' MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦!

[Tamas]

Probably the ignorant people in the rural areas still are, but not the Muscovites or Petersburgites.
Russia's weird that way. You step a few miles out of the main urban areas and you're literally in early 19th century Russia with chickens running around houses and babooshkas in head scarves.

To be fair that was Hungary and I am sure the rest of Eastern Europe as well until something like the late 00s maybe? I am sure it still is at the poorer parts but close to cities it's gone now.

[DGuller]

I do wonder if the Russian people ARE indeed still deeply religious after a generation of communism, or it's the aristocracy assuming they are.

It's hard to tell.  People seem to have some void in their psyche that religion fills, so without active suppression of the church I'm sure even some non-rural folks are genuinely religious.  There are a couple of Jewish immigrant chess grandmasters who converted to Russian Orthodox faith, while living in Brooklyn.  () That said, I have a really hard time believing that Putin or other Chekists like the church leaders really are genuine when they perform religious rituals from time to time.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

That what happens if the west gets self-deterred by non-existing red lines, hopes for non-existant reset buttons and half the economy is breaking sanctions because they love their greenbacks more than their liberty.
And that's ignoring the many people who are rooting for Russian de facto allies in the middle east and spreading Russian bs because they love the orange man or Russian gas so much.
It's unbelievable how a retarded society like the Russian one has managed to inflict so much ideological damage to the western societies that they've become incapable to find a way to kick the Russians out.

And while this may still turn into a Russian defeat it sure won't be a western victory (which someone in this thread has already mentioned... I'm guessing minsky, but I won't bet my head on it)

[Sheilbh]

I do wonder if the Russian people ARE indeed still deeply religious after a generation of communism, or it's the aristocracy assuming they are.

In a way I wonder if it's almost the opposite.

FWIW I think most Russians identify as Orthodox but don't attend any religious services. Religious identity of Russian Orthodox has increased, while religiousity/practice is still very low.

I think part of it is precisely that - it's not about religious belief, but religion as part of Russian identity in an imperialist war. But also in the rhetoric of the regime it is holy Russia v the West. I've mentioned it about Russian dis/mis-information and other ops, but also their rhetorical position of standing against Godless Western decadence and protecting Christians in the Middle East - I think there is something quite late Tsarist in this phase of Putin's Russia.

But on the elites - I've heard an awful lot about genuine interest in esoteric and occult sorts of knowledge and theories in the Russian elite (I think this is even reflected a little, say, in Day of the Oprichnik from an earlier phase of Putin's rule). And I think it makes sense in their mindset that there is a top layer of observable things, but the real truth is always what's going on underneath which only a few people have access to. I think performing the religious observations, underneath which sits more real truth. I suspect they view it as the stuff you need to perform for the masses while they know what's really going on - but because of that believe you need to perform it for the masses in order to prevent that surface layer.

[Legbiter]

Strelkov passed a message from his Siberian prison colony. Still pessimistic...

[Tonitrus]

Mildly interesting, even if I am skeptical that Russia or Ukraine have ever been really serious about a cease-fire. Some things the "source" says seem plausible...some not:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/10/04/putin-abandons-peace-talks-seeks-to-destroy-ukrainian-state-after-kursk-incursion-report-a86561

Putin Abandons Peace Talks, Seeks to Destroy Ukrainian State After Kursk Incursion – Report
11 hours ago


President Vladimir Putin has all but abandoned the idea of peace talks with Kyiv following Ukraine's Kursk region incursion, which dealt a "humiliating" blow to the Russian leader, the independent Poyasnitelnaya Zapiska (Explanatory Note) news outlet reported, citing sources close to the Kremlin.

"The Kremlin has come to a corresponding conclusion that they will destroy Ukrainian statehood. The situation looks like it will end up in no-rules warfare and both sides are considering how to make things harder for the other," the outlet quoted one of its sources as saying.

The source added that Putin would not trade Ukraine-held territory in the Kursk region for Russian-occupied lands in eastern Ukraine.

The outlet's sources said there were hopes this summer that the war could end within six months to a year thanks to factors including softening rhetoric from Kyiv as well as the major prisoner exchange between Russia and the West.

The Russian and Ukrainian militaries were also close to a de-escalation agreement that included a mutual restriction on striking energy facilities, Poyasnitelnaya Zapiska reported, with plans to sign the deal on Aug. 22-23 in Qatar.

"It would have been a win-win situation. Between 15% and 20% of Russia's oil-refining capacity had been knocked out and winter was bearing down on both sides," a source close to those involved in the negotiations told Poyasnitelnaya Zapiska.

A broader de-escalation, including a ban on the use of certain weapons and strikes further than a certain distance from the front line, had also been discussed, the source said.

But all this fell through after Ukraine's Aug. 6 incursion into the Kursk region, which is ongoing after nearly two months.

According to Poyasnitelnaya Zapiska's sources, Putin now believes that Kyiv used the preparations for the meeting in Qatar as a cover for its Kursk operation.

Those in the Russian elite who support peace talks are now the minority, said an official sanctioned by the West.

If the West permits Ukraine to use Western missiles to strike deep inside Russia like Kyiv has been requesting, the prospect of peace talks would be "completely" off the table for the foreseeable future, said another official who regularly meets with Putin.

"It's all gone too far. I don't believe there will be any sort of peace process. Nothing will stop until Ukraine collapses," said the head of a large state-owned enterprise who is in regular contact with Putin.

One of Poyasnitelnaya Zapiska's sources who regularly meets with Putin said that he would only risk using nuclear weapons if Russia entered an all-out war with the West, and that his need to maintain good relations with Moscow's BRICS allies is keeping him from escalating.

But the source said that Putin "will be looking more and more closely at the nuclear button" if his threats aren't taken seriously.

Meanwhile, according to Poyasnitelnaya Zapiska's sources, the Kremlin is ready to keep fighting for a long time.

"Ukraine's forces are being exhausted," the source said. "The Kremlin can carry on waging war like it is at the moment for decades."