Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Josquius]

In political hoo hah - I've read the general responsible for local defence in Kursk was previously responsible for more on the Ukrainian front but he was sacked for incompetence: he is very loyal to Putin however so couldn't be removed completely.
Part of Ukraine attacking here could well be knowing how shit this guy is thus how easy a time they'd have.
Certainly I've read of a smaller attempted attack further south on the Belgorod border which went less well.

[Solmyr]

Besides, I'm pretty sure the Russian OvB is very upset with Putin right now.  That has to count for something.

The American OvB probably is too, with Putin sucking up to Muslims.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

apparently South-Africa blocked a delivery of 50k Rheinmetall arty rounds to Poland, afraid they'll end up in Ukraine.

They really like the russians there.

[Josquius]

News looks bad.
Kursk coming to a stop as the Ukrainians run into Russian defences they don't have the manpower to go around.
In the centre Russia advances day by day...

[Tamas]

News looks bad.
Kursk coming to a stop as the Ukrainians run into Russian defences they don't have the manpower to go around.
In the centre Russia advances day by day...

This is probably true. But I also wouldn't rely on Telegram sources too much.

[Josquius]

News looks bad.
Kursk coming to a stop as the Ukrainians run into Russian defences they don't have the manpower to go around.
In the centre Russia advances day by day...

This is probably true. But I also wouldn't rely on Telegram sources too much.

With a lack of regular reporting unless something huge happens it's all we've got.

[Legbiter]

Ukrainian climate activists attacked the Omsk oil refinery.

Some reports on social media said a huge explosion was heard across several districts of the west Siberia city, located around 2,700 km (1,700 miles) east of Moscow.

Two sources familiar with the details said a crude distillation unit, CDU-11, one of two largest primary refining units at the plant, was affected by the fire.

That's 8% of Russia's total oil refining volume.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-omsk-oil-refinery-reports-fire-operating-normally-2024-08-26/

[Josquius]

Sadly a reaction after Russias big energy attacks today - they supposedly broke an unofficial agreement they had made about not striking energy infrastructure.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Sadly a reaction after Russias big energy attacks today - they supposedly broke an unofficial agreement they had made about not striking energy infrastructure.

Agreements with Russia are worth nothing, so no surprise there.

[Admiral Yi]

Ukrainian climate activists attacked the Omsk oil refinery.

he he

[Tamas]

500 Ukrainians are said to be attempting a breakthrough in Belgorod.

Which again is a weird thing about the scale of this war.

[Josquius]

Thoughts on how things are going through the fog?
Commentary seems to say... Not good. Kursk meant as a distraction which has failed, the Russians being willing to let the Ukrainians shoot conscripts and take farmland whilst Russia keeps grinding forwards in the centre.

I'm hoping it's all a double bluff. Ukraines progress in Kursk slowing down is a sign they've not got as many troops there as believed.
The missing troops that are talked about are massing to cut off the Russian spike.
Something is going on in the centre and it isn't just the grinding hopeless retreat it seems.
But really who knows. The optimistic case is rarely the right one.

[Tamas]

Time for Manstein's backhand blow.

[Legbiter]

Thoughts on how things are going through the fog?
Commentary seems to say... Not good. Kursk meant as a distraction which has failed, the Russians being willing to let the Ukrainians shoot conscripts and take farmland whilst Russia keeps grinding forwards in the centre.

Yeah Ukraine can still very much lose the war via the front line collapsing. It has a crippling manpower shortage, Western supplies are still erratic and ad hoc, there is no unified strategic vision of how the war should end among Ukrainian allies, the Biden administration is trying to precisely calibrate it's assistance into a stalemate for both sides, the sanctions leak like a sieve, I mean you could go on for some length.

Hope they manage to hang on until winter freezes the frontline.