Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Tamas]

Ukraine matters also mentioned the Wagnerites being flown in from Africa to kursk

I guess at least in Chad Hungary has already sent troops to serve Russian interests, so they can be spared there.

[Zoupa]

Kursk incursion is more serious than I thought. I helped fundraise for an excavator (for trench digging) in May. The brigade sent us a picture of it in Kursk... The second wave of soldiers are digging in.

[Tamas]

Kursk incursion is more serious than I thought. I helped fundraise for an excavator (for trench digging) in May. The brigade sent us a picture of it in Kursk... The second wave of soldiers are digging in.

Nice.

[Tamas]

Apparently the martial law ("anti-terrorist operation") declared in Kursk oblast is under the command of the FSB. I wonder if that's just a cover to play down the seriousness internally, or indeed the FSB has some sort of a Goering in charge who assured Putin he can get the territory back using their police forces.

[Legbiter]

Apparently the martial law ("anti-terrorist operation") declared in Kursk oblast is under the command of the FSB. I wonder if that's just a cover to play down the seriousness internally, or indeed the FSB has some sort of a Goering in charge who assured Putin he can get the territory back using their police forces.

Dislodging multiple brigades of dug-in Ukrainians is not something rosgvardia could do.   This is just window dressing to make sure Putin isn't seen to be directly in charge of sorting out this mess.

Some pretty gnarly videos of a destroyed russki column out now. Got hit with Himars while en route somewhere in Kursk.

[The Minsky Moment]

That's the plan until the West gets bored and hangs them out to dry, yes.

That's already happened.  The US - which has the most clear and obvious selfish national interest in having Russia lose - completely dropped the ball and hung Ukraine out to dry for critical months.  And that was with a sympathetic White House. No matter what happens in 2024, the prospect for reliable US aid seems dubious; if Trump wins, then the Kremlin will control the mind space of the American C-in-C; if Harris wins, I predict further GOP legislators will fall under Russian influence and promote obstruction.

I'm considering only the news of what Ukrainians themselves are saying and what the Ukrainian leadership is saying.  They are still holding fast against territorial concessions, but the mood lighting has clearly changed. Zelensky is solid but he knows the US is not reliable and he knows he can't gamble everything on his ability to herd the European cats in line behind him.  Sheilbh is correct above about the Ukrainian economy - it's a black hole that can only exist now as a mobilized war economy or a disaster reconstruction scenario, in either case relying on heavy foreign transfers. How confident can Zelensky be that in mid-2026 that backing will be there as needed? 

Ukraine won the war. They came together and became a nation, they exposed to the world the clay feet of the vaunted Russian military apparatus, they assured their independence.

But the West lost the war. We blew the golden opportunity to stop Russia cold when it was available and could have been achieved at a cost that would have imposed no meaningful burden.  Unfortunately, the cost of that failure will be suffered first and foremost by Ukraine. 

[Josquius]

Though when it comes to military aid the US is absolutely vital and it falling under Russias sway is a disaster, when it comes to peacetime reconstruction there should be more alternative sources of aid available. Things aren't so dire there

[Zoupa]

That's the plan until the West gets bored and hangs them out to dry, yes.

That's already happened.  The US - which has the most clear and obvious selfish national interest in having Russia lose - completely dropped the ball and hung Ukraine out to dry for critical months.

I agree with most of what you said, but saying the US has the most clear national interest in seeing russia lose is myopic. Poland and the Baltics come to mind.

[Legbiter]

But the West lost the war. We blew the golden opportunity to stop Russia cold when it was available and could have been achieved at a cost that would have imposed no meaningful burden.  Unfortunately, the cost of that failure will be suffered first and foremost by Ukraine.

Still, the West can basically slow-cook the russians like we're doing right now effectively forever. I just wish we'd sent them the 80's surplus stuff right away and told them to go wild on day one.

[Zanza]

One interesting aspect about this "Kursk Invasion" is that it shows that Russia will actually not use nuclear weapons to defend its territory. At least not yet.

Still, the West can basically slow-cook the russians like we're doing right now effectively forever. I just wish we'd sent them the 80's surplus stuff right away and told them to go wild on day one.

Until Ukraine runs out of soldiers, which might be sooner than we think...

[Tamas]

Have you seen this yet from a reputable source? It's from my Russian YouTube guy who is usually correct with this news but still just a rando on the net:

GERASIMOV SACKED - REPLACED BY THE HEAD OF THE KGB BORTNIKOV!

[Legbiter]

Ukraine seems to have stalled out on advancing further. russians pulling in ragtag units to check their advance. Bite and hold seems to have worked.

[Josquius]

Have you seen this yet from a reputable source? It's from my Russian YouTube guy who is usually correct with this news but still just a rando on the net:

GERASIMOV SACKED - REPLACED BY THE HEAD OF THE KGB BORTNIKOV!

I've certainly heard all over, bbc maybe included, that responsibility for dealing with the invasion has been given to the FSB, painting it as a counter terrorist operation.
Maybe Chinese whispers around that?

[Valmy]

Ukraine seems to have stalled out on advancing further. russians pulling in ragtag units to check their advance. Bite and hold seems to have worked.

It is good to have something to bargain with whenever this endless conflict comes to an end.

One thing that I find amazing about the Ukrainian military is that it seems to be made up of old men, at least in comparison to who usually fights wars. The average age of a Ukrainian soldier is in his 40s. That is amazing. That has to be unique in world history, I wonder how that impacts how this army operates.

[Tamas]

Have you seen this yet from a reputable source? It's from my Russian YouTube guy who is usually correct with this news but still just a rando on the net:

GERASIMOV SACKED - REPLACED BY THE HEAD OF THE KGB BORTNIKOV!

I've certainly heard all over, bbc maybe included, that responsibility for dealing with the invasion has been given to the FSB, painting it as a counter terrorist operation.
Maybe Chinese whispers around that?

Yeah probably what happened, although giving the KGB direct command over military units may not end well regardless.