2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[Valmy]

It was electing Obama that did it. If we had just elected Hillary or McCain back in 2008 this never would have happened. He would have probably been Hillary's biggest fan.

[Barrister]

It was electing Obama that did it. If we had just elected Hillary or McCain back in 2008 this never would have happened. He would have probably been Hillary's biggest fan.

I dunno - Trump did say he was running for President in 2000 under the Reform Party ticket.  He dropped out after a few months but it was something obviously on his mind.

[Caliga]

He's been talking about running since the 1980s.  I remember seeing him on a talk show (Phil Donahue?) and he brought it up as "something people are telling me I should do, but I'm not sure if I want to" or some such bullshit.

[Valmy]

It was electing Obama that did it. If we had just elected Hillary or McCain back in 2008 this never would have happened. He would have probably been Hillary's biggest fan.

I dunno - Trump did say he was running for President in 2000 under the Reform Party ticket.  He dropped out after a few months but it was something obviously on his mind.

Ah. See Trump said he ran because of Obama. He just lies about even the most insignificant things.

[DGuller]

I think it's very conceivable that Trump did run because of Obama.  Obama's roast of Trump at that dinner may very well have lit the fire in Trump to do this for real, not just talk about it.  Obama's gift of eloquently mocking his adversaries unfortunately also came with the curse of fatally underestimating them.

[crazy canuck]

Yeah - but from my understanding if Trump hadn't become President there's no reason to think Michael Cohen (his lawyer for a decade) was about to be disbarred or that any other Trump lawyer really ran that risk. There were always lawyers willing to do the work - and my understanding is the main issue with Trump was his relaxed approach to paying bills.

If the reason the rich can't use law as a weapon is the personal integrity of the legal profession we're in a worse position than I imagined (Edit: Or, perhaps, the rich have enough money to override those issues.)

I was not talking about Cohen, he is not the first of Trump's lawyers to be disbarred.

[crazy canuck]

How so?

Losing twice to Carroll and once to the NYAG was all part of his cunning plan to flood New York state with his money and cause an inflationary spiral that will take down Biden.

And don't forget his crushing $3 verdict against the NFL.

 

[Admiral Yi]

Donald has proposed cutting all income tax and replacing it with tariffs. Math doesn't work.

[The Minsky Moment]

Donald has proposed cutting all income tax and replacing it with tariffs. Math doesn't work.

There's also a distinction from using tariffs for revenue generation as opposed for protectionism.  In the latter case - which is Trump's usual rationale - the purpose of the tariff is to reduce or eliminate imports and thus it is not revenue generative at all. 

If you want to raise revenue using a tariff, it has to be low enough that significant levels of imports continue; thus, there is little or no protectionist benefit. Since the US imports a wide variety of consumer goods, the economic impact is basically similar to an across the board consumption tax.

[Syt]

The Project 2025 thing keeps making the rounds in recent weeks. How real is it, or rather: if The Orange One wins, how likely is it he his handlers will strive to implement it in full or partly? It seems over the top even for current GOP. Though it could also serve as a moving of goal posts, letting Republicans say "we're not that bad" while still implementing a watered down version that was not previously plausible?

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c977njnvq2do

Project 2025: The Trump presidency wish list, explained
12 June 2024

President Joe Biden's Democrats are mobilising against a possible governing agenda for Donald Trump if he is elected this November.

The blueprint, called Project 2025 and produced by the conservative Heritage Foundation, is one of several think-tank proposals for Trump's platform.

Over more than 900 pages, it calls for sacking thousands of civil servants, expanding the power of the president, dismantling the Department of Education and other federal agencies, and sweeping tax cuts.

The Heritage Foundation unveiled its agenda in April last year, and liberal opposition has been ramping up as opinion polls show a tight race between President Biden, a Democrat, and former President Trump, a Republican.

It is common for Washington DC think tanks to propose policy wish lists for potential governments-in-waiting. The liberal Center for American Progress, for example, was dubbed Barack Obama's "ideas factory" during his presidency.

But on Tuesday, California congressman Jared Huffman announced a Stop Project 2025 Task Force.

Mr Huffman said: "Project 2025 is more than an idea, it's a dystopian plot that's already in motion to dismantle our democratic institutions, abolish checks and balances, chip away at church-state separation, and impose a far-right agenda that infringes on basic liberties and violates public will.

"We need a coordinated strategy to save America and stop this coup before it's too late."

Heritage said Mr Biden's party was scaremongering with "an unserious, mistake-riddled press release".

"House Democrats are dedicating taxpayer dollars to launch a smear campaign against the united effort to restore self-governance to everyday Americans," said Kevin Roberts, the foundation's president.

"Under the Biden administration, the federal government has been weaponized against American citizens, our border invaded, and our institutions captured by woke ideology."

The Project 2025 document outlines four main aims: restore the family as the centrepiece of American life; dismantle the administrative state; defend the nation's sovereignty and borders; and secure God-given individual rights to live freely.

It is one of several policy papers for a platform broadly known as Agenda 47 - so-called because Trump would be America's 47th president if he won.

Heritage says Project 2025 was written by several former Trump appointees and reflects input from more than 100 conservative organisations.

Here's an outline of several key proposals.

Government

Project 2025 proposes that the entire federal bureaucracy, including independent agencies such as the Department of Justice, be placed under direct presidential control – a controversial idea known as "unitary executive theory".

In practice, that would streamline decision-making, allowing the president to directly implement policies in a number of areas.

The proposals also call for eliminating job protections for thousands of government-employees, who could then be replaced by political appointees.

The document labels the FBI a "bloated, arrogant, increasingly lawless organization" and calls for drastic overhauls of this and other federal agencies, including eliminating the Department of Education.

Immigration

Increased funding for a wall on the US-Mexico border – one of Trump's signature proposals in 2016 - is proposed in the document.

However, more prominent are the consolidation of various US immigration agencies and a large expansion in their powers.

Other proposals include increasing fees on immigrants and allowing fast-tracked applications for migrants who pay a premium.

Climate and Economy

The document proposes slashing federal money for research and investment in renewable energy, and calls for the next president to "stop the war on oil and natural gas".

Carbon-reduction goals would be replaced by efforts to increase energy production and security.

The paper sets out two competing visions on tariffs, and is divided on whether the next president should try to boost free trade or raise barriers to exports.

But the economic advisers suggest that a second Trump administration should slash corporate and income taxes, abolish the Federal Reserve and even consider a return to gold-backed currency.

Abortion

Project 2025 does not call for a nationwide abortion ban.

However, it proposes withdrawing the abortion pill mifepristone from the market.

Tech and education
Under the proposals, pornography would be banned, and tech and telecoms companies that facilitate access to such content would be shut down.

The document calls for school choice and parental control over schools, and takes aim at what it calls "woke propaganda".

It proposes to eliminate a long list of terms from all laws and federal regulations, including "sexual orientation", "diversity, equity, and inclusion", "gender equality", "abortion" and "reproductive rights".



The Heritage Foundation is one of the most influential of a number of think tanks that has produced policy papers designed to guide a possible second Trump presidency.

Since the 1980s, Heritage has produced similar policy documents as part of its Mandate for Leadership series.

Project 2025, backed by a $22m (£17m) budget, also sets out strategies for implementing policies beginning immediately after the presidential inauguration in January 2025.

Trump has endorsed a number of the Project 2025 ideas in his speeches and on his website, although his campaign has said the candidate has the final say on policy.

Many of the proposals would face immediate legal challenges if implemented.

[Josquius]

dismantling the Department of Education

Clever (ironically). Helping to create a future generation of Republican voters.

"Under the Biden administration, the federal government has been weaponized against American citizens, our border invaded, and our institutions captured by woke ideology."

This kind of thing makes a lot more sense if you just cross out woke ideology (or pixies or whatever other make believe they go with in the future) and write Jews.

[Sheilbh]

The Project 2025 thing keeps making the rounds in recent weeks. How real is it, or rather: if The Orange One wins, how likely is it he his handlers will strive to implement it in full or partly? It seems over the top even for current GOP. Though it could also serve as a moving of goal posts, letting Republicans say "we're not that bad" while still implementing a watered down version that was not previously plausible?

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c977njnvq2do

Like all attempts at constructing an ideological project or coherence around Trump I think it probably needs a yes, but.

What Trump is interested in is advancing his personal interests, protecting himself (and loyal allies) from prosecution and patrimonial doling out of spoils. That's it. If any of these projects get in the way of that, then he'll show zero loyalty to them. Similarly if they are not completely loyal and supportive of him (if they try to imagine they have an independent power base, for example).

There's a wishlist, but policy lists can be a bit of a distraction. At best it is the end, especially in a system like the US. I think possibly more important is the recruitment and training and preparation to staff a second Trump administration - not least because the adage is true that personnel is policy. Trump's first administration had plenty venal and flexible enough to be staffed but it was primarily from the (then) traditional Republican institutions that prepare administrative cadres. But they were, in various ways, not necessarily aligned with Trump. I think with the Trumpian march through the GOP's institutions that there is a generation of people ready to be appointed throughout the US government who are on board.

Again if they annoy him, or they criticise him, or anything like that - Trump will dump them. But there are now plausible Trumpian appointees. I've no doubt Heritage are a big part of that (not least because they can't get out-competed in the competition for patronage) - but I think it'll be those appointees and networks working things out that will, to the extent there's any, develop a political agenda for a Trump administration (aware, always, that it may need to pivot at any moment if his whims change).

[The Minsky Moment]

I would assume that the proposals under the headings Government, Immigration, Climate and Economy will be carried through as indicated, with Trump selecting the tariff alternative over free trade, and with the exception of abolishing the Fed for a gold standard. Trump will not abolish the Fed, but will find the most pliable lapdog he can find and appoint as Fed Chair.  Everything else in those categories accords with his own inclinations.

The rest may or may not happen depending on political dynamics of the moment.

[crazy canuck]

Didn't take long for Biden to have a brain cramp

[Valmy]

Well this was somehow worse than I thought it would be and I had been having pretty bad anxiety about this ever since I learned Biden was going to run for re-election.

I...I...just don't know how this was allowed to happen.