Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Valmy]

Iceland decides it's leaders based on a contest of strength?

The election is not decided until the opposing candidate is pinned. Once the candidates are identified they should remove any bulky clothing and begin by shouting the phrase "let's rumble" in Old Norse.

[HVC]

I don't think I've ever seen a short Swede before.

[celedhring]

People have been pouring over the newly released city census data in Barcelona. The amount of Ukrainians/Russians have nearly doubled since the war began (from admittedly low levels), and they are the 4th and 5th fastest growing ethnicities in town, and the fastest growing non-Hispanic ones.

Russians tend to move to the wealthiest neighborhoods, Ukrainians more to middle and lower class ones. Go figure.

[jimmy olsen]

[Valmy]

Only 5 or 6 Tannenbergs

[Josephus]

Russian strategy 101.

[Legbiter]

Yeah they'll run out of matériel to continue fighting long before they run out of meat.

[Josquius]

Things are sounding good with it being clear Russia didn't have the reserves people feared and Kharkiv eating everything they've got

Though since negativity is always required.
Again disclaimers it's not a proper source and all that.

THE BIDEN RESTRICTIONS ARE A MESS

The Americans (and with them the Germans) have established a ridiculous set of restrictions that simply make no sense.
In simple terms anything in occupied Ukraine is OK to attack with anything.
Anything in the Belgorod Oblast of Russia can be hit by anything except ATACMS.
Anything in the Oblasts facing the rest of the Ukrainian border with Russia proper - ie Sumy/Cherniv areas, those can't be fired into at all. Even though Russian forces are potentially massing in those areas.
Ukraine is also not allowed to fire into the regions behind Donbas/Luhansk, or Krasnodar at the opposite end of the Kerch bridge.
This is senseless. You can either hit Russia proper or you can't. And baring in mind Crimea, Donbas, Luhansk and Zaporhizia are already in Russian eyes, part of the federation following their illegal annexation in 2022. So Russia proper, from a Russian perspective, is already being fired upon by western weapons,  therefore the restrictions are moot.
Restricting anything at this point is simply senseless when you have already established the principle of hitting Russia proper, it doesn't matter where or what with anymore.
America urgently needs to rectify this situation.
And talking of things that need rectifying, a bizarre situation has cropped up with training Ukrainian pilots on F-16.
The  British did the basic training, the French did the second level jet basic training. America is supposed to finish the full training on the jets themselves in Nevada.  30 pilots are ready to finish their training. America has now admitted that it only has 12 spaces to give them on the available course. I personally find it astounding how disorganised and pathetic America makes itself appear when it can't seemingly organise something so desperately needed, when it knows in advance - by months - what's required. President Zelensky has requested that America does something about it.

[grumbler]

Things are sounding good with it being clear Russia didn't have the reserves people feared and Kharkiv eating everything they've got

Though since negativity is always required.
Again disclaimers it's not a proper source and all that.

THE BIDEN RESTRICTIONS ARE A MESS

The Americans (and with them the Germans) have established a ridiculous set of restrictions that simply make no sense.
In simple terms anything in occupied Ukraine is OK to attack with anything.
Anything in the Belgorod Oblast of Russia can be hit by anything except ATACMS.
Anything in the Oblasts facing the rest of the Ukrainian border with Russia proper - ie Sumy/Cherniv areas, those can't be fired into at all. Even though Russian forces are potentially massing in those areas.
Ukraine is also not allowed to fire into the regions behind Donbas/Luhansk, or Krasnodar at the opposite end of the Kerch bridge.
This is senseless. You can either hit Russia proper or you can't. And baring in mind Crimea, Donbas, Luhansk and Zaporhizia are already in Russian eyes, part of the federation following their illegal annexation in 2022. So Russia proper, from a Russian perspective, is already being fired upon by western weapons,  therefore the restrictions are moot.
Restricting anything at this point is simply senseless when you have already established the principle of hitting Russia proper, it doesn't matter where or what with anymore.
America urgently needs to rectify this situation.
And talking of things that need rectifying, a bizarre situation has cropped up with training Ukrainian pilots on F-16.
The  British did the basic training, the French did the second level jet basic training. America is supposed to finish the full training on the jets themselves in Nevada.  30 pilots are ready to finish their training. America has now admitted that it only has 12 spaces to give them on the available course. I personally find it astounding how disorganised and pathetic America makes itself appear when it can't seemingly organise something so desperately needed, when it knows in advance - by months - what's required. President Zelensky has requested that America does something about it.

Unsourced quotes are shaky enough as it is, but this bleating doesn't make any sense.  Arguing that, if the West accepts Russia's claim that "Crimea, Donbas, Luhansk and Zaporhizia are already... part of the federation" it should allow attacks anywhere in Russia because it allows attacks there is dumb.  The West does not accept those claims.

Yes, the West's restrictions on Ukraine's use of Western weapons is confusing and not militarily sensible, but that's because it isn't based on military considerations.  Exactly what the basis is remains a bit opaque, but ignorance of the reasons is not grounds for asserting that those reasons don't exist or don't matter.

Pilot training is a bitch.  It's expensive, so slots are limited.  I'd feel better about the situation if other countries with slots reserved offered to defer their training in favor of Ukraine's, but I don't know if that is being pursued.

In short, randos bleating about things making no sense are not new nor newsworthy.

[Josquius]

I don't think he's saying the west accepts Russias claims.
Rather from the Russian perspective western weapons are already widely used on what they claim is Russia - so on what basis can they then complain of escalation or some change in policy  if it's kursk rather than Luhansk Oblast being hit by American supplied missiles?
To do so is admitting their annexations in Ukraine are bollocks.

It should be spelled out to Russia that a certain distance from the border is a combat zone and any military gear they place within that is liable to be struck. They've clearly brought it into play against Ukraine.

The pilot training thing sounds quite face palm worthy. They knew the Ukrainians were coming but only now it's come out they can't actually take them.

[Zanza]

Macron committed Mirage jets now.

[HisMajestyBOB]

Real jets would probably be more useful than a mirage. 

[Jacob]

I've seen it argued that the ambiguity around where the exact limits of using the American gear are is a problem for Russia as its harder for them to know where the safe zones are. If there are clearly defined limits they can game the system by placing their assets just across the line. But if the line is not clearly defined that's trickier.

[grumbler]

I've seen it argued that the ambiguity around where the exact limits of using the American gear are is a problem for Russia as its harder for them to know where the safe zones are. If there are clearly defined limits they can game the system by placing their assets just across the line. But if the line is not clearly defined that's trickier.

Yes, that's part of the argument that I was making:  that we don't know the exact rules of engagement doesn't mean that the rules of engagement are "ridiculous," it means that we don't know.  That there are rules understandably irritates President Zelensky, but the US has to make foreign policies that are in its own interests.

And the pilot training thing is far more complex than the armchair airmen online believe.  Those training slots are allocated years in advance, and expanding pilot training would be very, very expensive.  Aim some of that ire at  the Netherlands, which is closing down the training facilities the Ukrainians could use there.  It would be far cheaper to just keep that going to train the Ukrainians than expand training in the US.   

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Real jets would probably be more useful than a mirage. 

Well, there is the ghost of kiev...